Hurricane Irene headed for landfall? How will it impact the Southeast? II-2

[downeastnc]

Looks like the NAM shifted west a good 50 miles this last run now has a hit more like GFS say MHC to ORF.

[Jalba]

Radar look of Irene, took intellicast's radar made it bigger and sped it up a little.

[eyewall]

Down to 105 mph.

[Brick Tamland]

Would be something if it fizzles out before hitting land after all this hype.

[packbacker]

Would be something if it fizzles out before hitting land after all this hype.

That won't happen, it will be 100mph when it hits MHX and the gusts will be larger than that.

[Brick Tamland]

So much for the talk about it being a cat 4.

[downeastnc]

Down to 105 mph.

Yep everytime they go strong she weakens but everytime the back off she ramps up.....would hate to see her flare up right before landfall like Bertha did.....

[deltadog03]

Looks like its a little WEST of the line right now. Any wobbles NNW will certainly allow her to be left of track.....

[Marion_NC_WX]

Yeah...Cat 4 looking very unlikely and Cat 3 may be hard to get considering there is drier air on the western edge of the storm...it could get entrained into the circulation, plus there is some shear on that half of the circulation.

That said, Irene is large enough to where she has done her damage in terms of generating waves and surge ahead of the main core...

The fact that she is picking up forward speed, there may not be enough time for Irene to make a gradual bend to the NNE. Landfall could end up being signifcantly farther south than Morehead City...

[Brick Tamland]

Once again the hype of the computer models is so much more than the actual storm. It's the same, whether it be hurricanes or snow.

[tnweathernut]

why do some people seemingly root for a cat 3, 4, or 5 storm to hit the coast? It really is ok to be a cat 3, 4, or 5 storm over the open waters and then it really is ok for it to be a cat 1 when it comes ashore. Enjoy the visibles and strength when it's over the shipping lanes, not coming toward people that literally can't get out of its path.

[feloniousq]

Once again the hype of the computer models is so much more than the actual storm. It's the same, whether it be hurricanes or snow.

As are you. Hit the banter thread.

[burgertime]

Once again the hype of the computer models is so much more than the actual storm. It's the same, whether it be hurricanes or snow.

Are you seriously going to complain about it not being strong enough to ruin cities? You are too much dude.

[Brick Tamland]

Are you seriously going to complain about it not being strong enough to ruin cities? You are too much dude.

No. I am glad it is not as strong. Now, snow is a different story. I am just saying the computer models are so nonreliable. It's like the little boy crying wolf all the time.

[packbacker]

Once again the hype of the computer models is so much more than the actual storm. It's the same, whether it be hurricanes or snow.

Except this time it's good, we don't want to destroy the OBX. But, even with 100mph or even 90mph with higher gusts is going to be really really bad.

[RevDodd]

No. I am glad it is not as strong. Now, snow is a different story. I am just saying the computer models are so nonreliable. It's like the little boy crying wolf all the time.

Unreliable? Gracious, Brick, given the parameters and lack of clear steering mechanisms Irene has put before them, the fact that we've been talking about the difference between Topsail and Morehead City for the past two days is pretty darn impressive.

We've known since Tuesday morning that the NC coast was under the gun. From there, it's just a matter of who's getting wet, who's getting thoroughly soaked and who's going to come home to nothing. I think once the initial hiccups were out of the way, the models have performed well with Irene.

[ryan1234]

I am glad to see that Irene is weakening. So very glad. The last this country needs is a muli-billion dollar disaster. Hopefully by the time Irene approaches NYC she wont be but a Cat 1.

[Solak]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 15:25Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)

Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011

Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 27

Observation Number: 18

A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 15:12:50Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 30°44'N 77°24'W (30.7333N 77.4W)

B. Center Fix Location: 208 miles (335 km) to the SE (133°) from Charleston, SC, USA.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,652m (8,701ft) at 700mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 147° at 99kts (From the SSE at ~ 113.9mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 949mb (28.02 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 700mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 105kts (~ 120.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 13:36:40Z

[downeastnc]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 15:25Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)

Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011

Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 27

Observation Number: 18

A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 15:12:50Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 30°44'N 77°24'W (30.7333N 77.4W)

B. Center Fix Location: 208 miles (335 km) to the SE (133°) from Charleston, SC, USA.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,652m (8,701ft) at 700mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 147° at 99kts (From the SSE at ~ 113.9mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 949mb (28.02 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 700mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 105kts (~ 120.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 13:36:40Z

Yep it will be tons worse for NC if she hits the Bogue Banks moving more N than NE, heck if she doesnt turn at all I will get the eye and folks in Raleigh would be in for a surprise.

[WeatherNC]

As noted in the main side thread, storm is missing almost the entire south and west side of the inner core. In the last couple frames you can see the original center beginning to fizzle, as the larger max on the NE side takes over. Going to be hard to strengthen with this kind of structure, and look for slow weakening to continue. 100 mph at landfall may even be a stretch at this point.

[Moose4]

So much for the talk about it being a cat 4.

Seems like every time it's supposed to intensify, instead it just stays around 100-110 but grows the wind field a little bit more. That's a monster hurricane even if it is "just" a cat 2.

[Moose4]

As noted in the main side thread, storm is missing almost the entire south and west side of the inner core. In the last couple frames you can see the original center beginning to fizzle, as the larger max on the NE side takes over. Going to be hard to strengthen with this kind of structure, and look for slow weakening to continue. 100 mph at landfall may even be a stretch at this point.

What's causing the circulation to fall apart on one side like that?

[Snowacane]

What's causing the circulation to fall apart on one side like that?

Dry air from the land

[Cold Rain]

What's causing the core to collapse? Is this just a standard ERC? The "hurricane expert" guy on TWC this morning said that conditions were favorable for strengthening. Now taking that with a grain of salt coming from TWC, the storm is going to be tracking over some warm Gulf Stream waters. It does have some drier air to the west, but it's not the dries you'll ever see. Also, I would think that since the storm is so big, it would be a little more resistant to that as well as a bit of shear. I'm on BB, so I don't have access to charts right now, but I thought that the shear wasn't too strong.

[Southeast NC]

Were getting some very heavy bands of rain in here now and the wind is definately picking up as well

[poptones]

from what I understand the size of the storm is actually one thing that's getting in the way - rather than tightening up the core and consolidating, the energy has been used to push the wind field pretty far out at the expense of strengthened winds closer to the eye.

[WeatherNC]

from what I understand the size of the storm is actually one thing that's getting in the way - rather than tightening up the core and consolidating, the energy has been used to push the wind field pretty far out at the expense of strengthened winds closer to the eye.

Yes, it is a very large storm, crosses around MHX and the precip shield touches RDU

Trying to have another go at it, lets see if this can be the start of something over the next 6-12 hrs... Looks better than it has all morning on IR

[Cold Rain]

from what I understand the size of the storm is actually one thing that's getting in the way - rather than tightening up the core and consolidating, the energy has been used to push the wind field pretty far out at the expense of strengthened winds closer to the eye.

Gotcha. I've seen storms this big develop better, but this one seems to be having a tough time. I guess conditions have to be perfect for these bigger systems to be able to thrive.

[eyewall]

I just updated my forecast discussion:

http://www.sandhillswx.com

[WeatherNC]

Gotcha. I've seen storms this big develop better, but this one seems to be having a tough time. I guess conditions have to be perfect for these bigger systems to be able to thrive.

Look at the last couple frames in the mw graphic I posted above, it updates in real time. Note a strong signal that a large inner max is trying to close off on the sw side, and the small remnant old core within the larger center, think we could be about to see a window of intensification. Only took me about 30 minutes to do a 180 on that, just goes to show us how little we understand about the internal physics and mechanics of these things.