CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think that's a little too spread out...NAM is partially extratropical...look at where the 500mb vort is compared to the surface low. Well that's 925mb winds which may be a little wide, but I think it brings home the wind potential point. It's not gonna be within 40-50 miles of the center with this guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Well you know what I mean. What do you think? The worst is always East up here, with that track, RI and EMA take the brunt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The worst is always East up here, with that track, RI and EMA take the brunt. I think Kevin has a south or se exposure somewhat. He'll get good winds, but you might have slightly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Phil Kevin et al...I'm gone...text me updates if you can, Thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think Kevin has a south or se exposure somewhat. He'll get good winds, but you might have slightly better. Really semantics with us, 65 or 70 sustained still crazy. Timing for the beaches in RI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The worst is always East up here, with that track, RI and EMA take the brunt. But we're east of the eye or at least NE of it until it comes overhead..and with the expansive windfield..I'm just trying to figure out what you and i might expect. I mean 1938 was worse in CT and RI than it was in Eastern mass..and this looks to be very close in track and strength as modelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Anyone have any specifics as to how far her hurricane force winds extend from the center? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmwes Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I need to start drinking or buy a pair of glasses. NAM looked really west to me, but that's actually a pretty horrendous situation for you and I? Rumored that the Chesney/Brown show at the Razor may be getting moved up on Saturday or moved. I've got tickets, can't help but thinking it's not a great idea to have 60k people+ trying to get out of Foxboro at midnight before a hurricane. It was already moved to tonight. http://www.foxbororeporter.com/articles/2011/08/25/news/10073816.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 But we're east of the eye or at least NE of it until it comes overhead..and with the expansive windfield..I'm just trying to figure out what you and i might expect. I mean 1938 was worse in CT and RI than it was in Eastern mass..and this looks to be very close in track and strength as modelled Winds were pretty even throughout man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Anyone have any specifics as to how far her hurricane force winds extend from the center? 80 nautical miles NE...50 nautical miles SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 But we're east of the eye or at least NE of it until it comes overhead..and with the expansive windfield..I'm just trying to figure out what you and i might expect. I mean 1938 was worse in CT and RI than it was in Eastern mass..and this looks to be very close in track and strength as modelled Can we stop comparing this to the 1938 cane? It is nothing like that storm with the exception of maybe the path. This thing is not moving at 70 mph and will not be as strong as that. Even local mets here say it will be nothing like 1938. This is going to be Gloria on a small dosage of steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NAM takes the low up the CT valley and then cuts it across Concord, NH, into western ME. Interesting track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Winds were pretty even throughout man. I guess we're splitting hairs. I just think too many are focusing on where the center passes..whether you're 30-40 miles east or west of it,you're going to have some extensive damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Honestly can we stop comparing this to the 1938 cane? It is nothing like that storm with the exception of maybe the path. This thing is not moving at 70 mph and will not be as strong as that. Even local mets here say it will be nothing like 1938. This is going to be Gloria on a small dosage of steroids. Don't say you weren't warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Question....Hypothetically say that exact track happens...would the worst of the winds be well east of me...or would we get raked by what's left of the eyewall? If the storm is going sw to ne that puts you in the ne quad when it's approaching, so you should get accelerated winds as it approaches whether your winds will be stronger than someone 10-20-50 miles to your east, I have no idea, but you should concievably do better than someone who remains only in the western quadrants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just to add a little insight since I have some recent experience Juan in 03 and Earl last year, your gonna want to be a fair distance east from the center to get the best winds. Especially if it starts to go ET. Earl passed 50 miles to my west and the strongest gusts were another 100miles to my east. Juan was a little different as it was still a warm core Cat 2. The damage path was much closer to the center on the E and NE side. For those who don't have a genny freeze some water bottles. Will help to keep freezer cold if you loose power. Especially if it's days without. Stock up on propane as BBQs are a must. Chainsaw will make you the hero of the neighborhood. I spent two full days sawing after Juan. Good luck folks. Hope you get nailed. It's quite the rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 yeah...you just get nervous with the horror stories from the Gulf where people can't get claims to go through. My broker assured me that if this is a widespread event...chances are if we just have a water back up claim or something relatively small, the carriers will likely just cut a check with no questions asked...because they'll be more concerned about checking up on those making full claims or dealing with demolished roofs. Of course...the latter is still a possibility for me with the number of trees in the neighborhood...just trying to remind myself if its bad I won't be the only one going through it. Yes indeed, salute to you from Stratford...I think I'll be in better shape but we're all in this one together, especially since it's the first most of us have experienced on this level. Bob is a faint memory for a nearly 6 year-old me. Time to go prep Stratford Point! You know, the piece of land that sticks way out in to the waters of LIS at the mouth of the Housatonic It would be amazing (but also amazingly stupid) to ride it out there. I'll be a few miles inland, though whenever power comes back I'll have photos and videos of all sorts of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I guess we're splitting hairs. I just think too many are focusing on where the center passes..whether you're 30-40 miles east or west of it,you're going to have some extensive damage Yeah wind field is big. Maybe not wide 100mph gusts, but wide swath of 60-80 imo. NHC track is pretty scary for surge. Winds down to 105mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Really semantics with us, 65 or 70 sustained still crazy. Timing for the beaches in RI? My street faces almost due N/S. Should make for some fun times with debris flying. Luckily the house is relatively unexposed and the trees are far and small enough to not pose a great risk to my house. been along time since I've seen winds this bad. Probably Blizzard of 2005 and those were only 50-60 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Please make sure you have a transfer switch installed by a qualified electrician. If you power a subpanel (or your main panel) with a generator, you need to take steps to not back feed your neighborhood. To anyone else who is planning to hook up a generator to their panel without a properly installed transfer switch, please at least turn off the "main" breaker in your panel. Otherwise you will be sending power from the generator out to the poles on your street, creating a nasty surprise for the people working on the poles. If you don't have a whole trasnsfer switch/subpanel set-up, you best bet is to just use extension cords from the gennie. Be safe A decent one is about $600 - $800 I wouldn't bother with anything under 6000 watts if you want to run the furnace and some appliances. Honda and Subaru engines are always a good bet. I'm looking to get a 2nd panel put in at our place this fall so all you need to do is fire it up and the whole house is on. If you use oil to heat your house you may want to look into a diesel gen because in a pinch you can run it on your home heating oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmwes Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Boy, I hope messenger saw my post (his PM box is full)...would suck if he missed the concert tonight. If anybody knows him offline, drop him a note? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 the surge potential with this might be 1938...the wind field is huge...64 kt, 50 kt, and 34 kt winds extend far from the center leading to a very high IKE surge of 4.8. The slow motion also increasing the natural resonance with the coastline. Right now, it seems more likely to be coming in closer to low tide than high tide which could help matters. The winds obviously won't be close to 1938. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The worst is always East up here, with that track, RI and EMA take the brunt. This rule certainly didn't apply with Gloria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It was already moved to tonight. http://www.foxborore...ws/10073816.txt Wrong show...there were two, saturday and sunday. Sunday got moved to tonight, Saturday is still set for 5pm. Not a great idea, look at the models at 18z yesterday versus now. Storm will be off Jersey at 8am Sunday...65k people pouring out of the Razor many driving from all over including to the south at 11 at night? Honestly they should probably reschedule the Saturday show or move it up 3 or 4 hours. My bet is they move it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Don't say you weren't warned 38 was a cat 3 and this will be a cat 1, if that. Irene has never strengthened once like it was supposed to and has "underperformed" so far. Not to mention we still don't know it's path, which could be over land for a considerable amount of time. Comparing this to the 38 storm is extreme. No way, no how. If you're expecting a 38 type storm you're in for a serious let down. I hope Jim Cantore reads this because he needs to step away from the 38 Kool-Aid as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It was already moved to tonight. http://www.foxborore...ws/10073816.txt there's 2 shows. Sunday was moved to tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 946mb with 105mph winds...wow. Don't really care though since the expanded windfield is what really excites me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yes indeed, salute to you from Stratford...I think I'll be in better shape but we're all in this one together, especially since it's the first most of us have experienced on this level. Bob is a faint memory for a nearly 6 year-old me. Time to go prep Stratford Point! You know, the piece of land that sticks way out in to the waters of LIS at the mouth of the Housatonic It would be amazing (but also amazingly stupid) to ride it out there. I'll be a few miles inland, though whenever power comes back I'll have photos and videos of all sorts of things. LOL..where have you been ? You disappeared in january. We thought you were in jail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 38 was a cat 3 and this will be a cat 1, if that. Irene has never strengthened once like it was supposed to and has "underperformed" so far. Not to mention we still don't know it's path, which could be over land for a considerable amount of time. Comparing this to the 38 storm is extreme. No way, no how. If you're expecting a 38 type storm you're in for a serious let down. I hope Jim Cantore reads this because he needs to step away from the 38 Kool-Aid as well. Look at the red tag post above yours.. Just taking the category number and thinking you can predict the surge from that is not going to yield good result. I 100% agree that this is not 1938, but using that evidence to dismiss the surge potential here is a dangerous mistake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 38 was a cat 3 and this will be a cat 1, if that. Irene has never strengthened once like it was supposed to and has "underperformed" so far. Not to mention we still don't know it's path, which could be over land for a considerable amount of time. Comparing this to the 38 storm is extreme. No way, no how. If you're expecting a 38 type storm you're in for a serious let down. I hope Jim Cantore reads this because he needs to step away from the 38 Kool-Aid as well. Irene is definitely underperforming. If it's only 90 knots while over the Gulf Stream...?????? DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THE INTENSITY OF IRENE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER. ALTHOUGH PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB WERE 111 KT...SFMR AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT A HIGHER-THAN-TYPICAL REDUCTION OF THE WIND FROM FLIGHT-LEVEL TO THE SURFACE APPLIES...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 90 KT. GIVEN THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE AND PREDICTED ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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