Tropopause_Fold Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 sref mean skirts the jersy shore and then landfalls a little east of NYC and then into W/C CT. might be slightly contaminated though as some of the ARW members are way west into NJ...most everything else is C CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 sref mean skirts the jersy shore and then landfalls a little east of NYC and then into W/C CT. might be slightly contaminated though as some of the ARW members are way west into NJ...most everything else is C CT Noyes was dry humping the sref's last night when they took it into New london..so he's got to be all over this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't know...I've been looking at the general motion of the storm since last night and it is due north, and if anything, still slightly west of north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hopefully for Kevin's sake it doesn't get ravaged by the Jersey shore first, but that's a pretty crazy track. Just lowlands and swamps out there on the shore..and very warm water overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Good morning, guys. Just saw the 6z GFS. Holy ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Interesting tick back west on the models. It still may tick east in the last minute as the storm gains latitude so perhaps western or central LI it seems right now..into central CT, but we could see slight shifts in either direction. I was thinking New London area earlier last night, but maybe too far east? We'll see how it behaves today. You never know with these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NAM through 30 is skirting OBX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NAM time. I think this could give a little better picture on the 'idea' of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 And now the HWRF...Jesus this is really happening. Everyone is going to get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 it's just wobbles. is it going to verify 100% accurate throughout the entire run? of course not. that's why i said "might be close to reality" who would take the model and say "here - this is what is going to happen." ? I've seen plenty of posts on here doing exactly that...not implying I was expecting it from you. Just saying, that's a fairly large error inside 18 hours when the forecast is now < 72hr. You can disagree, it's cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think what we may see is Irene start to move more N-NNE after HSE. It's at that point it will begin to feel more westerlies and start to bend more east of north. If it remains just offshore NJ and into LI and moving NNE-NE, that's a pretty dire scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think what we may see is Irene start to move more N-NNE after HSE. It's at that point it will begin to feel more westerlies and start to bend more east of north. If it remains just offshore NJ and into LI and moving NNE-NE, that's a pretty dire scenario. Dire as in good right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Dire as in good right? Heavy heavy power loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Heavy heavy power loss. Ok, so good then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Heavy heavy power loss. Were gonna get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Were gonna get crushed Yeah, fook the hassle of CT. We're going to get it plenty good up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm very disappointed and I'm not buying into this worst case scenario for Southeast New England. My own personal worst case scenario is this thing gets weakened considerably by land.....produces some, but not a lot of gusts approaching hurricane force in Rhode Island and SE MA....but doesn't excite those of us who were wowed by Bob...and because there are so many million more people who are affected with power loss to our more populated west...some of us in little ole Rhode Island and Bristol and Plymouth counties could be without power for multiple days and all we'll get out of it are some gusts to 76 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I've seen plenty of posts on here doing exactly that...not implying I was expecting it from you. Just saying, that's a fairly large error inside 18 hours when the forecast is now < 72hr. You can disagree, it's cool. well i just don't look at the run as being that specific. it's almost pointless. even at 12 hrs most guidance is going to be off a bit. i'm not implying that run is gospel truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Dire as in good right? Dire as in bad....good if you want it to hit you, but it is going to be bad if it makes LF anywhere on Long Island or in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yeah, fook the hassle of CT. We're going to get it plenty good up here. I posted an outage number earlier for Gloria and it was 530K and this does NOT include psnh! (For NU) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Dire as in good right? Well for SNE as a whole in terms of power loss wind damage, surge etc. Of course it wouldn't cause massive strucctural damage, but the impacts would be large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm very disappointed and I'm not buying into this worst case scenario for Southeast New England. My own personal worst case scenario is this thing gets weakened considerably by land.....produces some, but not a lot of gusts approaching hurricane force in Rhode Island and SE MA....but doesn't excite those of us who were wowed by Bob...and because there are so many million more people who are affected with power loss to our more populated west...some of us in little ole Rhode Island and Bristol and Plymouth counties could be without power for multiple days and all we'll get out of it are some gusts to 76 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 great loop of the 6z hrwf...might be close to reality. i believe it's been verifying very near the best of the suite so far - though the previous two runs running way east might knock those scores down some. watch the wind field expand. http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/irene09l.2011082606/irene09l.2011082606_anim.html Geez look at that wind in SECT SRI 103 knots, even my neck is 90 plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I've got family in Lewiston, ME that I'm sending updates to, and wish I could be there to experience this. Down in OK we had TS Emily a few years ago that dropped 4-6" of rain and gusts to 60 imby, but nothing like what some of you are going to get. Stay safe and look forward to following the storm with all of you. That is where i am and it should be a while ride.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm very disappointed and I'm not buying into this worst case scenario for Southeast New England. My own personal worst case scenario is this thing gets weakened considerably by land.....produces some, but not a lot of gusts approaching hurricane force in Rhode Island and SE MA....but doesn't excite those of us who were wowed by Bob...and because there are so many million more people who are affected with power loss to our more populated west...some of us in little ole Rhode Island and Bristol and Plymouth counties could be without power for multiple days and all we'll get out of it are some gusts to 76 MPH. I'm not nearly as optimistic as you but agree it could get destroyed by land. If it manages to mostly stay in the swamps of ENC and offshore after that we're screwed. If it ends up running with the western eyewall over land as it comes up the coast it's going to be weaker than people think IMO. We just don't know. Next 6 hours of motion will be the key. If it interacts with land significantly 60mph will be pushing it here again JMHO. If not, 100? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Geez look at that wind in SECT SRI 103 knots, even my neck is 90 plus Is that wind gust up to or sustained? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm a little unsure of how it will behave if it scrapes land for a while, but it's possible that strong venting and the fact that it is still in touch with warmer waters might not weaken it much. We'll see how it looks in te next 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 well i just don't look at the run as being that specific. it's almost pointless. even at 12 hrs most guidance is going to be off a bit. i'm not implying that run is gospel truth. christ the Euro is doing awful lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Is that wind gust up to or sustained? Note: 900-925 millibars (mb) represents near-surface wind values, consult NHC discussions for 5 day official forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Talked to my insurance broker this morning...which put me a bit more at peace with the whole thing. Not completely mind you...but a little more accepting of whatever happens will happen. One thing that put it in perspective is he said he's had a couple people he's had to talk to this week (right on the coast) whose insurance policies have lapsed...and since carriers have suspended writing new policies...their pretty much SOL. Just thankful I'm not in that boat. Gonna drive back to CT early tomorrow morning to just make a few final preps...board up our back sliding door windows, take out the window a/c units, ect. In a sick way looking forward to driving around a bit and experiencing the anticipation of the hit. Kind of like driving around before a big snow and seeing all the plows gassing up and people stocking up on salt & shovels...but in a band new way I may (and hope, at least as a home owner) only to experience once in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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