CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Any mets care to chime in on what the potential tornado threat for NE is? Probably one in CEF. Actually any squall on the eats and ne side could produce a brief spin up. They usually aren't a big worry, but I bet there will be some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 lots of power outages in NC .. and only gusting to 50/60 mph https://www.progress-energy.com/app/outagemaps/carolinas.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 GFS timing seems pretty precarious for timing of high tides along the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 That GFS track is about as good as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 well...i'm out gentlemen...long two days coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 well...i'm out gentlemen...long two days coming up. Should probably do the same. Going to the Sox game tomorrow, don't want to be too wiped out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Lol, Ukie tracks it though PHL and then NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Should probably do the same. Going to the Sox game tomorrow, don't want to be too wiped out. Like the sox were tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 well...i'm out gentlemen...long two days coming up. Ditto...I'm beat....I'll forego seeing the EURO drive the eye through Logan11's grey mane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Anyone want to bet max winds in PVD/ORH/BOS/PWM/BHB? Idk where those last two are probably on the cape but for PVD/ORH/BOS I'll go 77/81/76 (mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Irene making a hard right turn as we speak. Should be interesting to see where she is come morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looks like the hard right corrected a bit N on the latest sat. scan. AWT...OBX brush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Landfall in NC looks like it could be near or just sw of HSE..maybe near Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Idk where those last two are probably on the cape but for PVD/ORH/BOS I'll go 77/81/76 (mph) I'm not sure It will be that robust but probably close at PVD/BOS at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Lol, Ukie tracks it though PHL and then NJ. Man these UK/Euro models are really seeing something. Even though it looks extreme, I suppose we have to wait until tomorrow aftn to see if it has a clue...even if it is a little extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Landfall in NC looks like it could be near or just sw of HSE..maybe near Josh. I wonder what kind of winds he will get. New GFS has the landfall just barely to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm not sure It will be that robust but probably close at PVD/BOS at least. How would bos be higher than orh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Man these UK/Euro models are really seeing something. Even though it looks extreme, I suppose we have to wait until tomorrow aftn to see if it has a clue...even if it is a little extreme. They keep bending the storm back to the left after it passes SE VA and Delmarva. Its hard to actually believe that idea, but its been pretty consistent doing it so it makes you wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Check out these wind shear maps from UWisc... This has definitely helped us keep strength with sub-optimal structure: Note that the 10 kt line has moved north up with the storm, and we are in fact in less shear than we were early afternoon... Current: 6 hours ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Lol, Ukie tracks it though PHL and then NJ. Will, have you ever seen this kind of consistency between the models? I looked at the last 24 hrs of model runs and they basically wobble from 5 miles east of me to 5 miles west of me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 GFS actually shows it veering east of the forcast over NC and then cutting back west and meeting up with the forecast around western Long Island then, going a little west of it. H5 low actually goes west of Mount Washington, who will see the highest wind gust out of this, pardon my Cape Cod forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Hey Will is there any way you could post another one of those cool weathertap radar animations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Anyone want to bet max winds in PVD/ORH/BOS/PWM/BHB? Fella! Where've you been?? Max Gusts: PVD 78 ORH 62 BOS 72 PWM 62 BHB 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Man these UK/Euro models are really seeing something. Even though it looks extreme, I suppose we have to wait until tomorrow aftn to see if it has a clue...even if it is a little extreme. If the Euro/Ukie both lay an egg here, especially when they have stubbornly clung to an inland track, is there an internal process those models will go through to ascertain why they failed so badly? Let's say the track is over c/e LI. To me that would be an epic fail. For either of them to correct east now doesn't absolve the error factor up to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 They keep bending the storm back to the left after it passes SE VA and Delmarva. Its hard to actually believe that idea, but its been pretty consistent doing it so it makes you wonder. I also still tend to think that the GFS makes the most sense, and I'm not saying that just because it puts my house in the right front quadrant. I really don't think this trough is going to be strong enough to have it tug NNW for that long of a time. It's certainly anomalous, yeah, but I just don't see it doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 How would bos be higher than orh Coastal fetch with minima l resistance from objects. Basically in this track, the coast paradoxically always wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Nice. If that verified, it would be the third highest crest on record in Plymouth, beating 1938. But these have got to be the crappiest forecast products ever, so... we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I also still tend to think that the GFS makes the most sense, and I'm not saying that just because it puts my house in the right front quadrant. I really don't think this trough is going to be strong enough to have it tug NNW for that long of a time. It's certainly anomalous, yeah, but I just don't see it doing that. I guess we'll experience some ear popping low pressure lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Fella! Where've you been?? Max Gusts: PVD 78 ORH 62 BOS 72 PWM 62 BHB 54 This looks like a good call. In Rochester tonight on the way home from SW MI....will be home in time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Man these UK/Euro models are really seeing something. Even though it looks extreme, I suppose we have to wait until tomorrow aftn to see if it has a clue...even if it is a little extreme. Hey Coastal, not just Ukie/Euro... 0Z NAM seems to be drawn to this too... scraping coast of NJ, landfall western LI, and then a lesser right hook than before. As I posted above, could this have something to do with models catching on to timing of trough amplifying some more? I agree, Euro tnite will be very interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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