Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 FWIW, not trying to cause trouble in this thread. I want to make that point clear. I saw CT Rain and others claiming that the NAM intialized to far W, so I was intrigued. At 24 hrs, 00z RGEM looks to be just N/NE of Norfolk... so thats another model which went west with the NAM. True, those two might be outliers when the GFS comes out in 10 mins... but what if the GFS agrees? Can all 3 then be tossed for intialization errors? The point is ... the RGEM is a Canadian model; if we give them the initialization - IF - than it makes sense that both the NAM and it were west, seeing as we know the NAM was west. I don't think the GFS has a different data ingest - I bet it too hedges west. But CT' is right here - the NAM is already west biased right now, and with now-cast showing E corrections, these west runs don't make a lot of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Land friction. Over the water there is much less friction so the winds are stronger. Sometimes the models over do the land friction and you end up with highers gusts than you'd think looking at the sustained winds. But the land makes the wind more inconsistent. You'll see it pulse more in gusts....you could be going at 35-40 sustained and then rip a few gusts over 70. Friction was actually my number 1 guess. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The point is ... the RGEM is a Canadian model; if we give them the initialization - IF - than it makes sense that both the NAM and it were west, seeing as we know the NAM was west. I don't think the GFS has a different data ingest - I bet it too hedges west. But CT' is right here - the NAM is already west biased right now, and with now-cast showing E corrections, these west runs don't make a lot of sense. Agreed. I like nhc track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The strongest winds over on the Cape might be well after landfall. There is just an awesome LLJ of 80+ kts out of the southwest as the storm is over interior SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The strongest winds over on the Cape might be well after landfall. There is just an awesome LLJ of 80+ kts out of the southwest as the storm is over interior SNE. Is the intense LLJ a product of the strong jet streak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 that's only about 3 hours. If you look at the long distance Wilmington Radar you can see improvement in the southern portion of the "eyewall." I'm actually more hopeful for overall improvement in structure on the southern half of the storm. This would cause southerly shear to have a more difficult time in penetrating the core as it moves north of NC into NY and SNE....regardless of actual intensification. I haven't seen anything in 12 hrs so when I fired up satellite, It didn't disappoint me. The eye is fading on satellite for now, but the outflow is certainly allowing it to hold its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The Atlantic satellite view certainly seems to show a nne movement. This storm may very well have little interaction with land before LI. I feel like Bridgeport might be in cross hairs as far as SNE LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 that's only about 3 hours. If you look at the long distance Wilmington Radar you can see improvement in the southern portion of the "eyewall." I'm actually more hopeful for overall improvement in structure on the southern half of the storm. This would cause southerly shear to have a more difficult time in penetrating the core as it moves north of NC into NY and SNE....regardless of actual intensification. Is that improvement, or just coming into range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The strongest winds over on the Cape might be well after landfall. There is just an awesome LLJ of 80+ kts out of the southwest as the storm is over interior SNE. I could see something like the sun trying to come out and fighting the stratus flying north at 80kts, along with the ocnl shower there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 I haven't seen anything in 12 hrs so when I fired up satellite, It didn't disappoint me. The eye is fading on satellite for now, but the outflow is certainly allowing it to hold its own. The trough to the NNW of the system seems to be supplying a mass sink - this can be seen as debris shield expanding rapidly up the coast. At least that 's what it looks like to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Is that improvement, or just coming into range? i think it's improvement...the microwave basically showed no southern half to the inner core at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I could see something like the sun trying to come out and fighting the stratus flying north at 80kts, along with the ocnl shower there. This is gonna be fun to watch unfold during tomorrow in terms of track in the M.A. I think the ideal track to get big winds for the largest area of SNE is to keep it just barely offshore and then make landfall over W LI....the flooding potential though would obviously be lessened for a lot of our area...still some flooding rains for sure, but not the 6-10 inch amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The 0Z NAM gives me 9 inches. LOL I could see something like the sun trying to come out and fighting the stratus flying north at 80kts, along with the ocnl shower there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 i think it's improvement...the microwave basically showed no southern half to the inner core at 21z. Yeah, I'm having trouble getting CIMSS to bring that imagery more current - I'm interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 bingo Ahhh. Feels just like it does when a winter storm is approaching. This hurricane is like an early Christmas present, but still some folks aren't happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 gfs stays just off the jersey shore, makes landfall C/W LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Well good luck guys...to drop off my car at my brother in laws to put it in the garage or stick it out and leave it in the elements? Decisions, decisions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This is gonna be fun to watch unfold during tomorrow in terms of track in the M.A. I think the ideal track to get big winds for the largest area of SNE is to keep it just barely offshore and then make landfall over W LI....the flooding potential though would obviously be lessened for a lot of our area...still some flooding rains for sure, but not the 6-10 inch amounts. Yeah something like ISP and moving NNE would likely be the worst case for the SNE region in general. I'm anxious myself to see what happens. I really want the euro to fail on this, and our good old theorems of TC as they approach the Northeast to come true..lol. I think now is the time where any weenie wobble west or east will have more meaning..especially as it nears HSE latitude. Obviously we know they wobble, but as they move ne, it may be harder to correct west unless the euro idea of the s/w trying to capture and pull it north has merit. The euro should be interesting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 GFS a little east of NJ at 33? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Interesting tidbit from the DISCO: A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO THE VERY LARGE CIRCULATION OF IRENE. THIS SHOULD DELAY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION UNTIL IRENE IS OVER MAINE OR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. Gonna be a rare, purely tropical system, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Well good luck guys...to drop off my car at my brother in laws to put it in the garage or stick it out and leave it in the elements? Decisions, decisions... Dont ask Cape Cod Weather...he will just tell you do the "Where should I park my car" board...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 gfs stays just off the jersey shore, makes landfall C/W LI across w ct to springfield area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 GFS into W LI. Pretty good weenie track...just a shade W of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 if interested.. http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?action=wp&feedId=9559 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 across w ct to springfield area Right over CEF it seems. Perhaps just west of the 18z landfall in LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The other thing to think about, is if this comes in during the time the GFS has, and the eastern semi sector dryslots, daytime heating will add a slight boost to help mix down those winds. Even a degree or two boost is all you need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 12Z Euro, 0Z NAM, 0Z GFS all show an over NJ or just off the coast of NJ track into just east of NYC... Seems to me not only a trend back West, but also a loss of the "hook" into central/northeastern Mass... Will / Scott / others, what do you make of this? I was expecting influence of Westerlies to become more clear on models as we approach... Per disco from Philly office: The forward speed of Hurricane Irene in conjunction with the timing and amplification of the incoming upper trough is crucial in determining the western extent of the hurricanes track. This is critical, as a later timing in the trough amplifying some more will tend to allow the hurricane to track farther west. Our wind forecast is based off of the gridded wind field from the official NHC forecast and this will be updated with subsequent advisory issuances. If the center tracks farther off the coast, there may be a rather tight gradient in the rain shield across the County Warning Area from east to west. If the storm shifts to an inland track, then the axis of heaviest rain will shift and the threat of tornadoes will increase. There continues to be a high risk of impacts with this hurricane this includes widespread damaging winds, torrential rain, coastal flooding, dangerous rip currents, and battering waves and beach erosion. For the heavy rain aspect, see the hydrology section below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The other thing to think about, is if this comes in during the time the GFS has, and the eastern semi sector dryslots, daytime heating will add a slight boost to help mix down those winds. Even a degree or two boost is all you need. Yeah I'm hoping for the core of the LLJ on Cape Cod to come across mid/late afternoon. That could help us really rip those SW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Any mets care to chime in on what the potential tornado threat for NE is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Anyone want to bet max winds in PVD/ORH/BOS/PWM/BHB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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