Hazey Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I think it's just about time to put the models away and start using Sat and radar for track. Just MHO. Looks like it may miss NC. Maybe even the outer banks.Gonna be close. How that translates down the road. Don't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I think the reason the NAM nudged west is because of what was mentioned in the 11 pm NHC disco. Granted it may have intialized off the wrong area... but when you read the disco maybe thats why its west near/over OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 This is something we're going to need to keep and eye on, and I am aware that others have mentioned .. There are numerous tornado warnings flying in these outer band that are quite a ways from out from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 So Earl passes over the BM and hurricane warnings go to Hull but a Cat 1 passes to our west and Hurricane warnings only include the Cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 WECTWeather WECT Weather NWS: MHX: Belhaven [beaufort Co, NC] 911 call center reports TORNADO -- structural damage to multiple trailers along bay street #ncwx #irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This is something we're going to need to keep and eye on, and I am aware that others have mentioned .. There are numerous tornado warnings flying in these outer band that are quite a ways from out from the center. Yes, That could become a much larger player once it gets up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Getting closer to me fanny again, destruction certain, good luck, stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This is something we're going to need to keep and eye on, and I am aware that others have mentioned .. There are numerous tornado warnings flying in these outer band that are quite a ways from out from the center. After personally witnessing the non rain wrapped tor in Springfield thisvyear the last thing I want to see are rain wrapped ef1 and 2s ripping up sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 After personally witnessing the non rain wrapped tor in Springfield thisvyear the last thing I want to see are rain wrapped ef1 and 2s ripping up sne Yeah, as much as I want to see the big sustained wind and gusts, I can do without the tors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Yeah, as much as I want to see the big sustained wind and gusts, I can do without the tors. I think I might be the only one that wants the tornadoes...again probably don't know what I am asking for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Guess the RGEM intialized too far west too? At 24 its just NE of Norfolk http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_024.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Pretty cool - WunderMap centered on Nags Head with track and obs. Yup, a scrapper , track probably right over HSE on a NNE trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 inner structure is actually improving. TMI microwave at 2023z vs. SMI at 2310z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 Guess the RGEM intialized too far west too? At 24 its just NE of Norfolk http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_024.jpg Check this ...but I believe we give them the initialization data for the contiguous domain. If that is true it stands to reason. Either way, the question is an interesting one: why is that happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Man that looks like an HSE track on radar, but we'll see if it wobbles back left a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Check this ...but I believe we give them the initialization data for the contiguous domain. If that is true it stands to reason. Either way, the question is an interesting one: why is that happening? FWIW, not trying to cause trouble in this thread. I want to make that point clear. I saw CT Rain and others claiming that the NAM intialized to far W, so I was intrigued. At 24 hrs, 00z RGEM looks to be just N/NE of Norfolk... so thats another model which went west with the NAM. True, those two might be outliers when the GFS comes out in 10 mins... but what if the GFS agrees? Can all 3 then be tossed for intialization errors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 inner structure is actually improving. TMI microwave at 2023z vs. SMI at 2310z. Yeah that doesn't look too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I would take 5 KU's in a row over 1 Irene. I am not prepared...FOOK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Guess the RGEM intialized too far west too? At 24 its just NE of Norfolk http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_024.jpg How did you ILM call make out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Just a question for you guys. Why do the strong winds stop at the coast. Like the south Coast and the Cape could see hurricane force winds by why not a place just inland like say Brockton? Why do the winds end at the coast? Have a few guesses but not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 So Earl passes over the BM and hurricane warnings go to Hull but a Cat 1 passes to our west and Hurricane warnings only include the Cape? That was absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 are those returns part of irene south of LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Man that looks like an HSE track on radar, but we'll see if it wobbles back left a little I agree...I think that was the worry even last night. We'll see if it wobbles west, but it does seem that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 How did you ILM call make out? I said east of there I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Nice E wobble over the last scan...this is going over the Banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 Man that looks like an HSE track on radar, but we'll see if it wobbles back left a little ... I posted this earlier - studied the radar and satellite pretty hard this evening and really kept concluding that this would not make any direct land on NC - was extrapolating a path over Hatteras, but wow - given this and factoring that into the analysis I have would almost hair this east of even Hat. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Man that looks like an HSE track on radar, but we'll see if it wobbles back left a little I am going to drop a AIT, scraper, all hands on deck. , all weenies full staff Ho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 are those returns part of irene south of LI? Yes, extreme outer bands - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Yeah that doesn't look too bad. that's only about 3 hours. If you look at the long distance Wilmington Radar you can see improvement in the southern portion of the "eyewall." I'm actually more hopeful for overall improvement in structure on the southern half of the storm. This would cause southerly shear to have a more difficult time in penetrating the core as it moves north of NC into NY and SNE....regardless of actual intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Just a question for you guys. Why do the strong winds stop at the coast. Like the south Coast and the Cape could see hurricane force winds by why not a place just inland like say Brockton? Why do the winds end at the coast? Have a few guesses but not sure. Land friction. Over the water there is much less friction so the winds are stronger. Sometimes the models over do the land friction and you end up with highers gusts than you'd think looking at the sustained winds. But the land makes the wind more inconsistent. You'll see it pulse more in gusts....you could be going at 35-40 sustained and then rip a few gusts over 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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