CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 First guess for my locale winds: 40-60 gusts to 70 storm surge 6-10 ft devestating 6-10 feet would be very tough. The 11:30 high tide in Stamford is 5.3 ft NGVD and the record from 1938 is 11.0 ft NGVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 First guess for my locale winds: 40-60 gusts to 70 storm surge 6-10 ft devestating I'd say you are right on...I might go a little less on the surge, 4-8, but that wont make a ton of difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I think the NAM looks east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Look at all the birds launching against the south winds... http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php I don't know what to think of that. You typically see such migration only with a strong northerly flow for this date. That is really amazing actually, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm also not sure that it really weakened as much as the NHC advisories would lead one to believe, TODAY...they so much as it admitted in some of the DISCOs yesterday that Irene was prob no longer a cat 3 cane, but they kept procrastinating the down grade owing to more recon data...yadda, yadda....I think they feared the very reaction that they are getting today...folks breathing easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 6-10 feet would be very tough. The 11:30 high tide in Stamford is 5.3 ft NGVD and the record from 1938 is 11.0 ft NGVD. I think it depends, if Irene goes over obx and stays just offshore va md and nj, I think its possible, but good luck to nyc, if that track verified you are talking about a ton of water piling into lower manhattan up the hudson and east rivers and along the shore to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Look at all the birds launching against the south winds... http://radar.weather...theast_loop.php I don't know what to think of that. You typically see such migration only with a strong northerly flow for this date. That is really amazing actually, wow. That's birds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Another lesson from this...I think more folks should adopt my IR rule...."if it doesn't look immaculate on IR, it prob isn't going to town". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I really feel like somewhere on the south RI/CT border gusts to 100 in my gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 They just found 100kt FL winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 They just found 100kt FL winds. Apologize, but what's FL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Apologize, but what's FL? Flight level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 lol.. there are not 4 million customers. 1 customer = 1 household/business I figure a million inside 495 Anyway. This should be Gloria+Bob in terms of outages good point.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 They just found 100kt FL winds. Supports current intensity.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Look at all the birds launching against the south winds... http://radar.weather...theast_loop.php I don't know what to think of that. You typically see such migration only with a strong northerly flow for this date. That is really amazing actually, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Supports current intensity.. Yeah. Its maintaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 IR RB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 That's birds? Yes. I presume you can see the difference from Irene to the birdies (bird people often can't but I'm sure you weather people can). They all pick up for nocturnal migration after sunset. Sorry for OT but it is an Irene effect for sure. They're smart. The exodus from the tri-state area is fantastic against the southerly flow on August 26. They're going away from the coast, too, instead of hugging it or even leaving from it as some species do. The far-reaching effects of a hurricane, really spectacular. This is unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Noyes thinking a little intensification possible...cloud tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 They just found 100kt FL winds. In the SE quadrant too System's wind field remains quite symmertrical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Noyes thinking a little intensification possible...cloud tops No way, apparently he doesn't realize Ray said it won't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The fastest winds from this thing will be over The Cape and out of the SW where you have the strongest LLJ and sinking air. I know because everything in meterology is about the friggen LLJ. That and I was in Hurricane Ike in Pittsburgh under that friggen LLJ it was intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Center looking a bit better on IR. Seeing a consisant spot that seems like an eye forming again perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Yes. I presume you can see the difference from Irene to the birdies (bird people often can't but I'm sure you weather people can). They all pick up for nocturnal migration after sunset. Sorry for OT but it is an Irene effect for sure. They're smart. The exodus from the tri-state area is fantastic against the southerly flow on August 26. They're going away from the coast, too, instead of hugging it or even leaving from it as some species do. The far-reaching effects of a hurricane, really spectacular. This is unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 In the SE quadrant too System's wind field remains quite symmertrical 18 hours TS winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Supports current intensity.. Going to be a lot of sleep deprived weenies come monday morning. In a moment of emotional, beer fueled weakness i just reactivated my weather tap subscription. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Someone more experienced with the models want to chime in? Nam actually looks west a little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 You've all missed my WT posts, I just know it....nice tight spanking going on down there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Look at all the birds launching against the south winds... http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php I don't know what to think of that. You typically see such migration only with a strong northerly flow for this date. That is really amazing actually, wow. That is awesome. Thanks for posting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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