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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part IV


Typhoon Tip

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Hamburg area I guess eh... <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':)' /> Got caught in a fantastic LES band there once long long ago as a kid with parents.....coming home from South Bend.

BTW... wi-fi in all Thruway rest areas.

No wifi here. IPad ftw!

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Since you ambushed me a week or so ago I've payed closer attention to your posts. I've come to the conclusion you're a dope.

Heh.

Lots of dopes this storm.

MRG has kept his sensibilities during this ridiculous hypocane. Many of you others, and most here know who I mean, have behaved like ghouls.

Disgraceful. They should be ashamed and they are. We'll just never get an admission is all.

Good on you MRG.

Vim Toot!

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Heh.

Lots of dopes this storm.

MRG's has kept his sensibilities during this ridiculous hypocane. Most of you others, and most here know who I mean, have behaved like ghouls.

Disgraceful. They should be ashamed and they are. We'll just never get an admission is all.

Good on you MRG.

Vim Toot!

Toot lives!!!!!

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TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 87 89 88 82 72 55 36 23 DIS DIS DISV (KT) LAND 85 85 87 77 84 77 39 31 28 29 DIS DIS DISV (KT) LGE mod 85 85 85 86 82 78 39 30 29 32 32 37 44

LAT (DEG N) 32.1 33.1 34.1 35.3 36.4 39.6 43.6 47.9 52.3 55.3 56.8 57.6 57.8LONG(DEG W) 77.2 76.9 76.6 76.1 75.5 73.9 71.4 67.3 61.9 54.8 46.5 36.9 26.7

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Heh.

Lots of dopes this storm.

MRG's has kept his sensibilities during this ridiculous hypocane. Most of you others, and most here know who I mean, have behaved like ghouls.

Disgraceful. They should be ashamed and they are. We'll just never get an admission is all.

Good on you MRG.

Vim Toot!

They are everywhere, Just browse a few other forums on here....... :arrowhead:

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Heh.

Lots of dopes this storm.

MRG's has kept his sensibilities during this ridiculous hypocane. Most of you others, and most here know who I mean, have behaved like ghouls.

Disgraceful. They should be ashamed and they are. We'll just never get an admission is all.

Good on you MRG.

Vim Toot!

Toot!!!! I was just at the Cummington Fair. Checked out this years snowmachines, thought of you ripping along on your spaceship. I humbly accept your accolade. I read some of the posts in here and think there are some real miscreants among us. Hope you are well.

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post-3-0-47187100-1314406390.gif

Nice radar display.

I've been meticulous in attempting to follow the center for the last 5 hours; my very best estimate is that if it maintains the same course that it has averaged over the last 6 hours it will miss the NC mainland and pass very close to Hatteras. In support of this estimation, many of the near shore buoy and site obs are indicating the wind has backed as much as 20degree over that same amount of time - another indication that the low is passing underneath, not directly over them. Cherry Point, Beaufort, Willmington and the buoy 41036 to name a few.

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What are your thoughts down your way for this event?

I'm still favoring a C LI to E CT track at the moment as there is no reason to change it at this juncture but the Euro is definitely in the back of my mind. But we have to try and remember we still have about 42-48 hours before landfall. If past TCs are any measure, this is about the time we should see it nudge eastward up here, but you still have to keep a more inland track in the back of one's mind.

A C LI/E CT track will give some pretty high winds over a lot of the area and extreme rainfall for central/western zones.

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Big mistake. I took the entire day to be fully prepared to deal with days w/o power, flooded roads, downed trees (hopefully not on the house) and other emergency situations.

Anyone who takes a storm this large lightly is foolish.

The problem is that the media perpetuates this public preoccupation with:

1) Perceiving the eye as a point on a map, and if it doesn't pass over you, then you're good to go

2) Max sustained winds....since it has been weakening today, folks are now more inclined to let their guard down..they were just wating for an excuse to do so because of all of the past false alarms.

The media needs to bang home the point that, especially at this latitude, that the max sustained winds really do not make a world of difference and that you need not be within 5 miles of the eye to see bad conditions. As long as you are EAST of the tack, then you will see very bad conditions....all folks need to know.

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Toot lives!!!!!

Yes. I thrive!

Moved my palatial yacht last month to Southold on the North Fork. Love it.

We here have been in the sights of this storm since last week. I've been betting on a westward track and land interaction over NC, VA Capes, DE Cape & Joisey Shore for our salvation.

Who would have predicted the storm simply puking it's guts out over the GS the way it has since yesterday? I'm enjoying the head scratching going on here as many well -informed types cast about for an explanation.

Here's what I think happened- there are millions upon millions of people in the US East Coast and the rest of the country for that matter who dearly wish for this storm to spare us.

Those people pray. They are praying right now. They are praying to God and asking for Mercy. Mercy is being granted.

Thank God and screw the ghouls. They are spared too, in spite of themselves.

My wife and my little girl are safer by the hour.

You're welcome.

Vim Toot!

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The problem is that the media perpetuates this public preoccupation with:

1) Perceiving the eye as a point on a map, and if it doesn't pass over you, then you're good to go

2) Max sustained winds....since it has been weakening today, folks are now more inclined to let their guard down..they were just wating for an excuse to do so because of all of the past false alarms.

The media needs to bang home the point that, especially at this latutide, that the max sustained winds really do not make a world of difference and that you need not be within 5 miles of the eye to see bad conditions. As long as you are EAST of the tack, then you will see very bad conditions....all folks need to know.

And west gets extreme rain...and the coast gets a nice surge...there are plenty of reasons to be exceptionally cautious, but not irrationally fearful, of her.

Places like me have a few outcomes on the table, all of which are very problematic. It's a storm to be prepared for and taken seriously. This isn't too hard but some people still insist you're either going overboard or hyping.

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