SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 To clarify my intent before - no, I am not writing it off. Tropical Storm is not something we boast a lot of experience with - gusts to 60mph would be dramatic enough. Anyway, NHC said them selves that recon could not find an inner core - no core, no hurricane. Now, could one regenerate? sure - Until it does though, it should steadily weaken - just not sure what that would hold in store for us way up here. What a disaster.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Joe..that post you quoted about Irene going ET was your best grab of the year. More of that and less of the negative Kevin, I am not a negative person. I am simply stating things from the NHC and from other reliable sources. Having a love for weather, deep down I want to see something historical, but at the same time the thought of what might happen here due to storm surge is quite frankly frightening. I honestly would love to see something in the middle, losing power is actually fun, we are having a hurricane party with some friends inland tomorrow, but the thought of getting home Monday or Tuesday to see a tree through my home or sea water through my first floor sucks. In a perfect world we get sustained high end tropical storm force winds but its moving quickly enough so SS is diminshed, but my gain is someone elses pain. No matter what I want we have no control over it, so in the end it really does not matter. I really doubt that you want massive oaks crashing through your home, but our thirst for weather is often not satiated, and this is certainly a very rare occurence, perhaps in the end once in a lifetime for a new england resident. I just hope everyone comes out of this safe and is spared too much hardship, times are tough enough. Is it exciting and nervewracking at the same time, you bet your azz it is!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Kevin, I am not a negative person. I am simply stating things from the NHC and from other reliable sources. Having a love for weather, deep down I want to see something historical, but at the same time the thought of what might happen here due to storm surge is quite frankly frightening. I honestly would love to see something in the middle, losing power is actually fun, we are having a hurricane party with some friends inland tomorrow, but the thought of getting home Monday or Tuesday to see a tree through my home or sea water through my first floor sucks. In a perfect world we get sustained high end tropical storm force winds but its moving quickly enough so SS is diminshed, but my gain is someone elses pain. No matter what I want we have no control over it, so in the end it really does not matter. I really doubt that you want massive oaks crashing through your home, but our thirst for weather is often not satieted, and this is certainly a very rare occurence, perhaps in the end once in a lifetime for a new england resident. I just hope everyone comes out of this safe and is spared too much hardship, times are tough enough. Is it exciting and nervewracking at the same time, you bet your azz it is!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Can any Pro's comment on historic ability to clear an eye after it has filled? This blip here is persisting and, though dry air apparent wrapping in, the overall structure looks to be improving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 that is a possible scenario...i'm just waiting and watching how this all plays out... Highly doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Can any Pro's comment on historic ability to clear an eye after it has filled? This blip here is persisting and, though dry air apparent wrapping in, the overall structure looks to be improving... We've seen the last of any appreciable intensification........felt that way for about 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 We've seen the last of any appreciable intensification........felt that way for about 30 hours. Yeah I tend to agree... Tombo (as in the 2am-EURO-reading Tombo of this past winter) asked the same in the main forum... unclear what it's doing but, hopefully this better appearance translates to a stable 951mb or better at 8pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The winds and damage we experience up here is probably better correlated to the pressure that it has down in the Carolinas. Even if it does weaken 25mb from now we're talking about a 975mb hurricane.. solid Cat 1 still. 950mb is not much higher than Gloria at this time and it's lower than Bob. I think the massive size of the wind field will prevent a dramatic drop in wind speed. One factor I think that is against 100mph+ gusts is the slower forward speed than Bob or Gloria. But the area of 70mph+ gusts could be much larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 WRF moved west..from E LI to W Li.. Anything east of about C LI looks very unlikely with everything keying on from there west If that works out, I will beat my lowest pressure reading ever and your prediction for a W LI landfall from days ago will prove to be correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The winds and damage we experience up here is probably better correlated to the pressure that it has down in the Carolinas. Even if it does weaken 25mb from now we're talking about a 975mb hurricane.. solid Cat 1 still. How does 950mb compare to Gloria at this time? 960s somewhere, Cat 2 at landfall here. There were gusts to 115mph in eastern Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 The winds and damage we experience up here is probably better correlated to the pressure that it has down in the Carolinas. Even if it does weaken 25mb from now we're talking about a 975mb hurricane.. solid Cat 1 still. How does 950mb compare to Gloria at this time? I think the massive size of the wind field will prevent a dramatic drop in wind speed. One factor I think that is against 100mph+ gusts is the slower forward speed than Bob or Gloria. But the area of 70mph+ gusts could be much larger. 980 by danw, 990 by sunset, 1000mb inexplicable washout to almost nothing by sunday morning - NEXT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Need to take a break from the forums, been following on my phone all day, then came in and posted some comments that probably pissed some people off. The stress is killing me. I wish you well. Hope no damage comes to you or your family/friends, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Need to take a break from the forums, been following on my phone all day, then came in and posted some comments that probably pissed some people off. The stress is killing me. This post sums it all up for me, its STRESS/ I am sure people can understand that. Now back to Irene, just spoke to my mother in Pawleys, seems like winds are north gusting to tropical storm force, some limbs down, she said the rain is impressive, and the ocean was eating away at the dunes, they are well west of the center, Its going to be a long weekend high end TS force winds for hours ripping through these trees is going to extremely destructive to say the least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It has been noted about the "no inner core"= a storm that will start a steady weakning trend. What is the inner core, is that like the eye wall? Irene still has a good look to it on IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 980 by danw, 990 by sunset, 1000mb inexplicable washout to almost nothing by sunday morning - NEXT LOL Why is it either cat 4 or dissiation with you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 LOL Why is it either cat 4 or dissiation with you... hecs or flurries in the winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Not your typical forecast on the s ct coast for Sunday: Hurricane conditions expected....... Rain, heavy at times East wind 55 to 65 mph, wind becoming east 55-75 mph gusting to 85 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 SHIPS is only 42 kt because it's inland and that particular track has a lot of land time before SNE. Without land SHIPS has 84 kt at 38N and 79 kt at 41N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Not your typical forecast on the s ct coast for Sunday: Hurricane conditions expected....... Rain, heavy at times East wind 55 to 65 mph, wind becoming east 55-75 mph gusting to 85 mph Are you guys staying at home for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 WRF moved west..from E LI to W Li.. Anything east of about C LI looks very unlikely with everything keying on from there west Kevin do you still think we get hurricane gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCWeather Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Outer bands of clouds starting to make an appearance south of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Are you guys staying at home for this? I am going to wake up in the morning and see whats going on, we have plans to head to our friends house in Darien up by rte 15. The only thing that scares me is the surge, if things are on track in the am, we will leave by mid afternoon, but its tough leaving. Having said that, its a real possiblitly that the voluntary evacuation for our location becomes mandatory. What can you do JD? Its coming, I am really excited to see how this jet streak may actually strengthen and expand the wind field! How about you and Nini, any plans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 We joke, we poke fun, nobody here wishes destruction on anyone. We are however into sadomasochism in a weather sense. It's a catch 22 conundrum. It's what we do. Still looks like a NC scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 Look out Ray, she's lost a millibar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm torn...part of me wants Irene to over-perform, but the other part of me thinks about all the headaches a sizable blow would create (car, property damage, etc) Ughh...this is a tough hobby.<br><br>BTW...anyone mention the winds from Accuweather.com <br><br>Forecast for here on Sunday...Day - Sustained 43 (Gusts to 83 mph) Night - Sustained 42 mph (Gusts to 96 mph)<br><br>Any way in which these numbers are realized. Maybe 60-75% of those gusts. (ie - around 65 mph) <div id="myEventWatcherDiv" style="display:none;"></div><div><br></div><div>My forecast is for 30-40 sustained and gusts to 65mph here. We'll see. It's fairly sheltered in metrowest.</div> <div id="myEventWatcherDiv" style="display:none;"></div> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Kevin do you still think we get hurricane gusts? LOL is it even a question what he thinks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I am going to wake up in the morning and see whats going on, we have plans to head to our friends house in Darien up by rte 15. The only thing that scares me is the surge, if things are on track in the am, we will leave by mid afternoon, but its tough leaving. Having said that, its a real possiblitly that the voluntary evacuation for our location becomes mandatory. What can you do JD? Its coming, I am really excited to see how this jet streak may actually strengthen and expand the wind field! How about you and Nini, any plans? Maybe you send Jules and the kids to your friends place and stay behind to guard the home and property? I could always drive up and we could try to muscle it out and make it over to Penfield for some top notch chasing and video? Just a thought. Neens and I will hunker down here with our supplies and actually have to talk to each other for a few days when the power goes out, lol..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Irene looking much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Maybe you send Jules and the kids to your friends place and stay behind to guard the home and property? I could always drive up and we could try to muscle it out and make it over to Penfield for some top notch chasing and video? Just a thought. Neens and I will hunker down here with our supplies and actually have to talk to each other for a few days when the power goes out, lol..... Its not a bad idea, but I dont know if the penfield reef would be the place to be with astro tides and a 5-10 ft wall of water coming ashore?? lol, its very enticing though, hey, who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This storm, I can't wait for the second guessing from people on Monday in the press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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