wxsniss Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Latest IR As that big outer arm swings into NC, here's a nice Outer Banks webcam (most are too busy to access): http://shuttersonthebanks.com/beachcam.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Charleston AFB N 22/31 Myrtle Beach Inter NE 23/33 Wilmington NE 23/32 Hatteras E 24/31............Important to watch this wind in regards to where Irene makes landfall in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 yeah, next recon fixed should tell movement but I am wondering the same thing, unless there is a NNW jog.. maybe moorehead? Prob just east of ILM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It can still make landfall over mainland NC, but it could be close. If it picks up any eastward component over the next 6-12 hours, then it might be OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It can still make landfall over mainland NC, but it could be close. If it picks up any eastward component over the next 6-12 hours, then it might be OBX. it's had a slight east component since 18z...maybe 010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hurricane Warnings are now posted for everyone per BOX or are my eyes deceiving me??????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hurricane Warnings are now posted for everyone per BOX or are my eyes deceiving me??????? Ummm I am under a tropical storm warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 5pm latest 'Reverse 911' from Westerly Emergency Management. Mandatory evacuation in effect starting at 6pm Saturday night for all of Shelter Harbor, Weekapaug, Misquamicut and Watch Hill. Starting at 8am tomorrow morning - only residents and business owners along and south of Shore Road (Rte.1A) and from Happy Valley Road south along Watch Hill Road will be allowed access. This means access to ALL Westerly beaches - including MIsquamicut - will be denied unless you can prove residency. By 6pm, evacuation of all residents and business owners in said area must be complete. No access - even by residents - will be allowed after 6pm. Beautiful sunny day today with perfect 6 foot plus swells rolling in. The size and strength of the waves increased as the day went on. Businesses and homes were being boarded up - and all trailers (Jims between town beach and the Windjammer as well as the Dunes club) were being moved out. Very surreal to be down the beach this afternoon. Really got the sense something big was about to come down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Ummm I am under a tropical storm warning. Must be my screen since I can't see any color difference on that map. I see that I am under TS Warnings as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hurricane Warnings are now posted for everyone per BOX or are my eyes deceiving me??????? Those are different reds, I think your monitor is deceiving you. They should make them further apart in the spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 it's had a slight east component since 18z...maybe 010? Some of the models try and bend it back left for a time later that we'll have to see if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Any chance they end up having to up the strength again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 SHower just popped right overhead..Big black cu with some big drops falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think something that hasn't been mentioned enough is that the guidance is suggesting an extratropical transition (ET) with Irene as it makes to the vicinity of nyc/li. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_850_048l.gif On this plot from 18z gfs, you can see that by that point, cool advection is starting at 850 mb as the strong upper trough deepens over the region, so clearly the system will be becoming baroclinic. You can probably infer that that process might be getting started between hour 42 and hour 48. An extratropical transition might be a bad thing in this case because it'll lead to a further expansion of the already huge wind field and also even the western side of the storm is liable to get strong gusts mixing down. In my synoptic meteorology class at Stony Brook I learned that the 1938 hurricane was likely undergoing explosive ET when it made landfall on LI. Some storms weaken quickly when they start to lose tropical characteristics, but some maintain or even strengthen a bit when they become hybrid or baroclinic. Being in the right entrance region of the strengthening 250 mb jet streak consistently progged over the northeast as Irene moves north might also aid in this process. The sometimes explosive ET is why there's been several examples, most notably Hurricane Igor last summer, of hurricanes that have done very significant damage to the Atlantic Provinces of Canada. I hope I'm wrong, but I think that Irene will have a significant impact on the metro region and that trying to downplay it is a big mistake at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just emailed friends in Philly: "6-10 inches for Philly" Never thought I'd say that for rain. Philly will have a chance of pushing it's record rainfall in August to 20 inches! (previous record is 12.1", currently they have 13.6") NYC looks to be in the same "boat". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 ugly 18z SHIPS...42kts by the time she gets here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 ugly 18z SHIPS...42kts by the time she gets here... Only way that verifies is if this tracks mostly inland from Cape May to W CT/ MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 My mom and brother (Jamestown, RI) will be evac-ing to the site of the ill-received PVD Conf. in Warwick They are pretty much done battening down the hatches. Is the bar there any good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 it's had a slight east component since 18z...maybe 010? I agree...perhaps even a hedge more - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Only way that verifies is if this tracks mostly inland from Cape May to W CT/ MA. What are you thinking for rain/wind for ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Only way that verifies is if this tracks mostly inland from Cape May to W CT/ MA. that is a possible scenario...i'm just waiting and watching how this all plays out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Well, thanks to Irene, I scored cheap RF box tickets for tomorrow night's Sox game . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is actually looking significantly healthier than it did 4 hours ago... let's see if we can pull < 950 mb at 8pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 thought you guys would find this interesting Irene ISS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Wilmington NE 31/44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Joe..that post you quoted about Irene going ET was your best grab of the year. More of that and less of the negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 ugly 18z SHIPS...42kts by the time she gets here... Who would even look at the SHIPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 WRF moved west..from E LI to W Li.. Anything east of about C LI looks very unlikely with everything keying on from there west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 To clarify my intent before - no, I am not writing it off. Tropical Storm is not something we boast a lot of experience with - gusts to 60mph would be dramatic enough. Anyway, NHC said them selves that recon could not find an inner core - no core, no hurricane. Now, could one regenerate? sure - Until it does though, it should steadily weaken - just not sure what that would hold in store for us way up here, should that be the case. Perhaps it transitions to hybrid/extratropical and that would conserve alot - be one helluva Nor'easter if THAT happened. One thing is amazing with Irene though; that radar loop that Will provided; you can actually detect cyclonic curvature in those small convetive cells over the southern cordillera and Georgia - that's hundreds of miles from Irene's fix - that's pretty damn cool. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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