Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Does it LF in NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NSwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 ''According to most in here you should be banned for that post. Death and destruction for all. /sarcasm'' I swear i've read this same line at least 100 times in the past two days..Yes if there was a Cat 3 bearing down on LI I would be concerned,, As far as a strong cat 1 goes,, I've seen 75 + mph wind's in many winter storms as well as Hurricane Noel, Hurricane Kyle and Hurricane Earl. It will get bad, but you will be fine.. Honestly if you want to see the true force of a hurricane without risking your life a cat 1 is all you really want anyways. Hurricane Kyle landfall video I shot. keep in mind he was just barely a hurricane if he was at all and I could hardly stand up lol http://s90.photobuck...canekyle008.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It will be a cat 1 at LF up here.. It's funny how some folks think a beast like this is just going to weaken into nothing lol.. All you're doing is making people not in the know think this is not a big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Man what a total misquote, you forgot this part, "showing the large size of the hurricane" This is the type of misinformation that is useless and not helpful. It's not a misquote and the specific question wasn't answered. Have they found the equivalent of hurricane force winds where people reside in this run? We all know it's a broad storm... I would honestly be pumped and would be right there with you, but it's sliding downhill. And now that there's doubts that it even makes landfall as a hurricane... Should be a good storm, but not what it could have been if the core had held up etc. I think it looks decent on the loop but like they said, it's lost the core. NHC had this at 125MPH yesterday morning.. The fact that they think it may only be a TS by the time it strikes SNE does not really mean anything to me. Determining a hurricane's strength is not an exact science. Yep, so if they're off by the same factor up here it comes ashore at 55 or 60/65. I'll stick with low 60's as my top wind here. I was listening to Reid (NHC chief) on NPR and he was saying they have no idea why it is weakening. He was also discussing how much TC track forecasting has improved. He said that the reason Floyd required such large evacuations was track error was nearly twice what it is now back then. Considering Floyd was actually in my lifetime and I remember it well, I found that pretty cool. I heard him on another channel say the same thing. Also said they didn't know why it didn't strenghten, nevermind why it weakend. Giving the appearance on radar and WV to my eye that it's now moving a little east of north. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CLT&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20110826&endTime=-1&duration=5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Does it LF in NC? IMO, there's some eastward component to its trajectory right now and if it stays on the same course it'll just scrape the Outer Banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It's not a misquote and the specific question wasn't answered. Have they found the equivalent of hurricane force winds where people reside in this run? We all know it's a broad storm... They found 105mph FL in the NE quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Lets be careful and not get "Iked" into believing this is not as bad. Ike had 952 pressure.. this is currently at 950 mb14 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply »BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Storm has not started deepening, I still think it will. Convection should refire and eye re develop later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 ''According to most in here you should be banned for that post. Death and destruction for all. /sarcasm'' I swear i've read this same line at least 100 times in the past two days..Yes if there was a Cat 3 bearing down on LI I would be concerned,, As far as a strong cat 1 goes,, I've seen 75 + mph wind's in many winter storms as well as Hurricane Noel, Hurricane Kyle and Hurricane Earl. It will get bad, but you will be fine.. Honestly if you want to see the true force of a hurricane without risking your life a cat 1 is all you really want anyways. Hurricane Kyle landfall video I shot. keep in mind he was just barely a hurricane if he was at all and I could hardly stand up lol http://s90.photobuck...canekyle008.mp4 great video. i don't remember: where did Kyle make landfall, and where was this video taken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Lets be careful and not get "Iked" into believing this is not as bad. Ike had 952 pressure.. this is currently at 950 mb14 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply »BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Storm has not started deepening, I still think it will. Convection should refire and eye re develop later tonight I think he may have chucked this weenie just a hair too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is sad Long Island just issued a mandatory evacuation of EVERYONE south of Sunrise Highway! They're saying we MUST go by 5 PM Saturday or face the consequences. They have even ordered evacuations on some north shore towns! All public transport will be shut down by noon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NSwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Southern Tip Of Nova Scotia. Right on my little Island http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kyle_(2008) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 NHC’s 5pm discussion: "IRENE NO LONGER HAS AN INNER CORE" Ah, what? That statement took me back - although, objectively I can't say I'm shocked - I was having trouble identifying a eyewall. Well there you go! It’s just about over guys…barring some really low probability comeback. This is turning into an enormous debacle of forecasting – models and man. Neither scored well. About the only upshot to this is that yes…there is a system to monitor and it will affect on population to varying degree; that will protect the the reputations of many and the field in general - but it gets harder by hour to imagine that impact being very significant. Irene never really seemed to get her act together after PR – it seemed to almost get there at times, and really looked impressive on sat, but no sooner and an hour later the system kept returning to that unraveling character. Actually, when I heard about EWR taking place when Irene was barely a Cat 2, I think I had the doomy glooms and but supressed that realization. EWR's are basically geriatrics for hurricanes - it's when the slip into middle age and get all arthritic, stop working out, let their bellies grow, just before subcumbing to some systemic disease. When she ever she looked good on satellite, Recon could not ever seem support the suspected intensity; but when she looked bad on satellite? Recon had no trouble finding her weaker. you know ... I think back to that 5 or so TCs in a row earlier in the season, and none of them making it much stronger than 50mph – it really seems that’s been a persistent theme this year so far: storms won’t get strong. This TD 10 - no different... AS soon as it developed, poof, hard to justify it all the sudden. I guess shear is culpable there; but the season in all is indictable. Irene is strong, sure but… nowhere close to what the parameters suggested the system could be. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 IMO, there's some eastward component to its trajectory right now and if it stays on the same course it'll just scrape the Outer Banks. Trying to be level headed here, seems that this is written off with current conditions as status Quo. This scrapes HAT then it stays offshore NJ and rams LI, anybody who thought anything more than gust to near 100 was wishcasting. The huge size and massive wind field, which will get enhanced soon as this passes the Delmarva, will not weaken this to a non destructive storm. Ryan correctly pointed out, this is a surge machine, you bet against it and stay, good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Nice to see this has weakened a bit. Hopefully it comes through with minimal damage. Weird an mrg post when everyones down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is sad Long Island just issued a mandatory evacuation of EVERYONE south of Sunrise Highway! They're saying we MUST go by 5 PM Saturday or face the consequences. They have even ordered evacuations on some north shore towns! All public transport will be shut down by noon tomorrow. sound's reasonable to me, if you aren't 15' higher than normal sea level you should evacuate IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NHC’s 5pm discussion: "IRENE NO LONGER HAS AN INNER CORE" Ah, what? That statement took me back - although, objectively I can't say I'm shocked - I was having trouble identifying a eyewall. Well there you go! It’s just about over guys…barring some really low probability comeback. This is turning into an enormous debacle of forecasting – models and man. Neither scored well. About the only upshot to this is that yes…there is a system to monitor and it will affect on population to varying degree; that will protect the the reputations of many and the field in general - but it gets harder by hour to imagine that impact being very significant. Irene never really seemed to get her act together after PR – it seemed to almost get there at times, and really looked impressive on sat, but no sooner and an hour later the system kept returning to that unraveling character. Actually, when I heard about EWR taking place when Irene was barely a Cat 2, I think I had the doomy glooms and but supressed that realization. EWR's are basically geriatrics for hurricanes - it's when the slip into middle age and get all arthritic, stop working out, let their bellies grow, just before subcumbing to some systemic disease. When she ever she looked good on satellite, Recon could not ever seem support the suspected intensity; but when she looked bad on satellite? Recon had no trouble finding her weaker. you know ... I think back to that 5 or so TCs in a row earlier in the season, and none of them making it much stronger than 50mph – it really seems that’s been a persistent theme this year so far: storms won’t get strong. This TD 10 - no different... AS soon as it developed, poof, hard to justify it all the sudden. I guess shear is culpable there; but the season in all is indictable. Irene is strong, sure but… nowhere close to what the parameters suggested the system could be. Interesting. You though 38, most thought Cat 1 with higher surge. You writing it off as being destructive and a non threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Latest I've seen better looking nor'easter. This thing is in a sad state. Not sure what it will look like 36 hours from now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It looks better and better to me. NHC jumped the gun on saying no strengthening? http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CLT&itype=ir&size=large&endDate=20110826&endTime=-1&duration=5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This afternoon wouldn't be complete without a Tip Pink Floyd post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It's not a misquote and the specific question wasn't answered. Have they found the equivalent of hurricane force winds where people reside in this run? We all know it's a broad storm... I think it looks decent on the loop but like they said, it's lost the core. Yep, so if they're off by the same factor up here it comes ashore at 55 or 60/65. I'll stick with low 60's as my top wind here. I heard him on another channel say the same thing. Also said they didn't know why it didn't strenghten, nevermind why it weakend. Giving the appearance on radar and WV to my eye that it's now moving a little east of north. http://weather.rap.u...e=-1&duration=5 yes, the specific quote was referencing it's large size...not it's intensity. The found 91 kt flight level winds along with 65 kt SFMR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Lets be careful and not get "Iked" into believing this is not as bad. Ike had 952 pressure.. this is currently at 950 mb14 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply »BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Storm has not started deepening, I still think it will. Convection should refire and eye re develop later tonight Yeah, i don't know why people are downplaying this storm. Yes it's weaker than modeled but it's still over open, warm water for the love of God. It's first LF could still very well be W. LI. It's going to be big and surprise a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Watch this strengthen off of NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Its doesnt matter if Irene is a depression up here the rain from this is going to affect alot of people! It seems like most people are just looking at wind speeds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I've seen better looking nor'easter. This thing is in a sad state. Not sure what it will look like 36 hours from now.... really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z GFS makes landfall on h5 maps somewhere around NYC... perhaps just east in W LI at 45. At 48 its moving NE from LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I understand this isn't the monster Cat. 4 we could have had, but some of these posts are getting a little ridiculous now. If this has little to no land interaction between here and LI, we should be all set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 well latest pass was at 949, so not sure what people are seeing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 gfs is over mainland eastern NC...the moves off the coast...makes a second landfall in Central LI/Central/E CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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