DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 does that mean you can't post anymore? Oh sh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 does that mean you can't post anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Edwards St and south, voluntary evacuation for those that are in mandated flood zones. is that you? Good luck my friend-hope it's not too bad down there...hoping for the best, but not looking good--lots of nice trees around town will be demolished even if it only makes LF as a tropical storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 As much as I'm not rooting for this: Cat 1 by the time it makes landfall in NC, TD TS by the time it reaches latitude of southern NJ... The IR images of current vs. even just 4 hours ago show a pretty dramatic change: this is really struggling. Once its structural integrity is lost, the collapse could accelerate, even with favorable SSTs. I really hope I'm wrong and I'm not trying to piss people off. As I said before, the next few hours are critical. EDIT: I of course mean TS (storm, not depression) by the team reaches latitude of southern NJ Not looking like the "worst post of the year" now... init 26/2100z 31.7n 77.4w 85 kt 100 mph 12h 27/0600z 33.4n 77.1w 80 kt 90 mph 24h 27/1800z 35.5n 76.3w 75 kt 85 mph...inland 36h 28/0600z 38.2n 75.0w 70 kt 80 mph...over water 48h 28/1800z 41.8n 73.0w 60 kt 70 mph...inland 72h 29/1800z 50.5n 65.0w 45 kt 50 mph...Post-trop/extratrop 96h 30/1800z 56.5n 51.0w 40 kt 45 mph...Post-trop/extratrop120h 31/1800z 58.0n 32.0w 35 kt 40 mph...Post-trop/extratrop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I just don't understand why some people feel they have to downplay everything and try and kill people's enthusiasm. Not a cheerleading forum...it's what's going on, storm has gradually lost it's punch, intensity forecasts have dropped 20-30% over the last day. The storm has no core per NHC and it's still yet to interact with land. I think maybe they are wrong and it can regather some, but we'll see. Still leaving Bob as the last one ... there's always next year...sigh... Yep, maybe. Let's see how many sustained verified hurricane force winds occur at official stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Oh well... still planning to go to a private beach on Point Judith Pond. It'll be easy for us to get there since we are residents and it won't be closed since parts of the neighborhood are far from the ocean. If you're talking about breakwater village that's under a mandatory evacuation too. Basically, don't expect to get anywhere in Narragansett lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Still leaving Bob as the last one ... there's always next year...sigh... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 does that mean you can't post anymore? best hurricane ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I will wait for others to review the data messages but the implications of "THE AIRCRAFT DID REPORT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF 50-55 KT 135 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.."....did they even find hurricane force winds or implied hurricane force winds at the surface? Yikes. It seems to me the entire discussion was based on the old flights.... Man what a total misquote, you forgot this part, "showing the large size of the hurricane" This is the type of misinformation that is useless and not helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Have a sneaking feeling people will be disappointing when this thing is just a moderate tropical storm before SNE landfall. Have a sinking feeling you will be sinking Sun AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Time to yank the calculators out of azzes and enjoy the damn ride. We have a Cat. 2 hurricane getting ready to scrape the Outer Banks and then hit all of SNE. Fooking enjoy it instead of pissing and moaning about its appearance every 5 minutes. 950.1mb...that's plenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I just don't understand why some people feel they have to downplay everything and try and kill people's enthusiasm. I would honestly be pumped and would be right there with you, but it's sliding downhill. And now that there's doubts that it even makes landfall as a hurricane... Should be a good storm, but not what it could have been if the core had held up etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 today shows how much we have to learn about these storms--no one had this weakening as it has....no model or forecast (That I know of) called that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NHC had this at 125MPH yesterday morning.. The fact that they think it may only be a TS by the time it strikes SNE does not really mean anything to me. Determining a hurricane's strength is not an exact science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Time to yank the calculators out of azzes and enjoy the damn ride. We have a Cat. 2 hurricane getting ready to scrape the Outer Banks and then hit all of SNE. Fooking enjoy it instead of pissing and moaning about its appearance every 5 minutes. 950.1mb...that's plenty. +1000 we could be tracking Petes upper 20s first frost. That's stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 For Blizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 A post-analysis on this might be interesting if it broaches the subject of "TC's that weaken with no physical cause" hahhaha. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This will still be fun, who cares.. I am going to enjoy the winds and maybe power outages.. not sure what else people where expecting.. and looking at the latest pics she does not look bad. R. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hopefully the mods can do something about some of these posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Lol hasn't hit NC yet and were tipping chairs How are blizz and I the only sane ones?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It will not be done but I would have gone from a Hurricane Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the New England coast. I think we will see lots of gusts in the 50's and 60's and a few brief hurricane force gust but don't think anyone will experience hurricane force substaned winds. Comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It will not be done but I would have gone from a Hurricane Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the New England coast. I think we will see lots of gusts in the 50's and 60's and a few brief hurricane force gust but don't think anyone will experience hurricane force substaned winds. Comments? It depends how much land it goes over...I think if it stays mainly offshore after the brief landfall in NC, then we'll see it as a cat 1, but if its hugs the NJ coast too much, then I think it will be difficult to have it as a hurricane up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I was listening to Reid (NHC chief) on NPR and he was saying they have no idea why it is weakening. He was also discussing how much TC track forecasting has improved. He said that the reason Floyd required such large evacuations was track error was nearly twice what it is now back then. Considering Floyd was actually in my lifetime and I remember it well, I found that pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This weather station has been getting some very nice winds over the last couple of hours: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNCTOPSA3 Getting 45 mph winds and its still close to 200 miles away from the hurricane. Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It depends how much land it goes over...I think if it stays mainly offshore after the brief landfall in NC, then we'll see it as a cat 1, but if its hugs the NJ coast too much, then I think it will be difficult to have it as a hurricane up here. Yeah I agree. The difference between a 70 and 75mph storm particularly near track in CT and on south coast probably minimal. I agree with NHC call for TS warnings in Boston. Biggest concern is heavy rain and storm surge (timing seems like a high tide crusher + astro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It depends how much land it goes over...I think if it stays mainly offshore after the brief landfall in NC, then we'll see it as a cat 1, but if its hugs the NJ coast too much, then I think it will be difficult to have it as a hurricane up here. I hope it's about 20 miles east of the NJ coast and comes due north Is that a possible track, Will? Two of the old time storms I continue to be impressed by are August 1893 (which we already discussed as destroying Hogs Island) and the Great September 1815 storm which actually created Long Beach Barrier Island by separating it from the Rockaway Peninsula. I think the idea that west of the track doesn't get severe conditions is misinformation.... check out where that storm tracked and what happened. http://en.wikipedia....er_Gale_of_1815 The storm struck Long Island on September 23, 1815, probably coming ashore near Center Moriches (Ludlum). On the south shore of Long Island it broke through the barrier beach and created the inlet that still isolates Long Beach, which had previously been an eastward extension of The Rockaways. 1815, 1944 and Donna all had massive effects on the west side of the storm and they ALL went WELL east of where this is progged to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Nice to see this has weakened a bit. Hopefully it comes through with minimal damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Have a sneaking feeling people will be disappointing when this thing is just a moderate tropical storm before SNE landfall. Ya think????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 34 KT.......250NE 225SE 140SW 175NW. Talk about a large wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 A post-analysis on this might be interesting if it broaches the subject of "TC's that weaken with no physical cause" hahhaha. wow. yeah tip i was thinking the same... this is fascinating. what makes a perfectly good looking hurricane with good strengthening conditions trip over itself with multiple ERCs like this? why do some hurricanes have a beautiful eye, whereas other have multiple concentric rings or ERCs that interfere with inner core strengthening, like Ike. great paper on hurricane Rita and multiple ERCs / concentric eye walls published in Science: Houze Ra, Jr; Chen, SS; Smull, BF; Lee, WC; Bell, MM (2007). "Hurricane intensity and eyewall replacement". Science 315 (5816): 1235–9. doi:10.1126/science.113565 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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