ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm still perplexed by the Euro and Ukie...I'll give it another cycle before considering forecasting that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 You think you'll get some decent gusts up your way? Depends what you think is decent. I think I'll get around 40-45mph. I'd like to hit 50mph since my station record is 48mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Depends what you think is decent. I think I'll get around 40-45mph. I'd like to hit 50mph since my station record is 48mph. Yeah that's pretty decent. I'm gunning for 60-70...may have only seen that once or twice up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like Providence is screwd no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Ahhh back from a meeting....! So hard to do any work today. Glad to see IR looking a bit better, ie. the erosion not continuing. Kev, hope you read my message, I have no intentions of pissing people off, just a purely honest objective discussion of a historic time. I have 0 doubt this will have a huge impact on SNE. And here's the latest recon I could find, min pressure 950.1 which is good, she's holding steady! 000URNT15 KNHC 262038AF308 2909A IRENE HDOB 14 20110826202900 3117N 07751W 6961 02854 9663 +143 +002 327069 072 052 001 03202930 3118N 07750W 6967 02841 9656 +143 +004 328061 063 051 001 03203000 3119N 07748W 6961 02848 9648 +146 +005 328062 063 050 000 03203030 3120N 07746W 6963 02831 9644 +141 +006 328064 064 050 001 00203100 3120N 07744W 6967 02819 9634 +140 +007 326065 066 048 000 03203130 3121N 07742W 6967 02810 9619 +147 +008 325065 065 048 001 00203200 3122N 07740W 6965 02806 9609 +148 +009 325063 065 047 001 03203230 3122N 07738W 6959 02802 9594 +151 +011 326062 062 046 001 00203300 3123N 07736W 6966 02785 9585 +152 +012 325061 061 047 001 03203330 3124N 07735W 6969 02774 9573 +153 +013 323061 062 047 001 03203400 3125N 07733W 6966 02764 9560 +152 +015 322059 060 049 001 03203430 3126N 07731W 6967 02749 9540 +161 +017 328056 059 048 001 03203500 3127N 07729W 6961 02748 9527 +162 +019 329051 053 046 002 00203530 3128N 07728W 6969 02727 9523 +154 +022 330040 044 035 000 00203600 3129N 07726W 6967 02720 9515 +156 +023 328032 034 029 001 03203630 3130N 07724W 6966 02717 9513 +149 +024 322025 028 026 001 00203700 3131N 07722W 6962 02719 9509 +150 +025 309019 021 023 000 03203730 3133N 07721W 6969 02705 9508 +149 +025 294013 016 019 001 03203800 3134N 07720W 6968 02704 9505 +146 +025 274008 008 019 001 03203830 3136N 07719W 6956 02716 9501 +148 +024 246002 004 019 003 03$;EDIT: don't know why the table formatting is all messed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 latest pass looks like in the low 950's.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm still perplexed by the Euro and Ukie...I'll give it another cycle before considering forecasting that direction. Will is the Euro still running much lower on the pressure? Really odd for it to be in such error this close if it turns out to be wrong. looks like hunter was on scene at 2028...c'mon lower pressure... Looks to me like she's beginning to make the move towards the outer banks versus a further west landfall: http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CLT&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20110826&endTime=-1&duration=4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Will is the Euro still running much lower on the pressure? Really odd for it to be in such error this close if it turns out to be wrong. looks like hunter was on scene at 2028...c'mon lower pressure... Looks to me like she's beginning to make the move towards the outer banks versus a further west landfall: http://weather.rap.u...e=-1&duration=4 950.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Per the other thread, some east of north movement which I think is looking legit based on the satellite loop, she's at least attempting to make the bend. 950.1 but not quite in the center, IMO strengthening again because I'd be willing to bet it was higher than 951 after the HH left last time. So Irene is at least steady state and maybe GS is about to give it some mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like Providence is screwd no matter what. Screwed meaning what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hurricane warning for southern Connecticut..... Is this really happening? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 37.1 N 77.4 W at 5 pm Double Landfall expected by NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Depends what you think is decent. I think I'll get around 40-45mph. I'd like to hit 50mph since my station record is 48mph. I definitely want to hit 50mph in Plymouth, but it'll be tough for sure. We'll see. I'll be chasing Irene on the roof of Boyd haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 SPC 2 Day re: Irene ...EASTERN SEABOARD -- HURRICANE IRENE... PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE...HURRICANE IRENE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC/EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK/OBSERVATIONS...THE PRIMARY SURGE OF QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR/NEAR-SURFACE BUOYANCY...AND THE MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR WITHIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF IRENE...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THE EXTENT/LIKELIHOOD OF A CONSEQUENTIAL TORNADO THREAT INLAND MAY BE LIMITED BY SCANT INSTABILITY AND AN ANTICIPATED GRADUAL WEAKENING OF IRENE...SOME TORNADO/CONVECTIVE WIND RISK IN ASSOCIATION WITH SMALL SUPERCELLS/PIVOTING OUTER BANDS OF IRENE WARRANTS LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR THE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 ALTHOUGH NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...IRENE COULD WEAKEN JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I definitely want to hit 50mph in Plymouth, but it'll be tough for sure. We'll see. I'll be chasing Irene on the roof of Boyd haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like the NHC has Irene as a Cat 1 making landfall in NC, which I implied earlier and was lambasted. They go on to say the core of the hurricane has been eroded and do not anticipate any restrengthening, even though it will be traversing warmer waters over the next 12-18 hours, and that the latest data actually supported lowering intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 She's a pretty girl.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is disappointing to say the least. I'm supposed to meet with some friends tomorrow night at Georges... hope they don't close down Galilee (they usually don't) AITWesterly will also close the shoreline area south of Shore Road on Route 1A to everyone but residents and property owners at 8 a.m. Saturday, Hartford said. Police will set up checkpoints to prevent surfers and others from accessing the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like the NHC has Irene as a Cat 1 making landfall in NC, which I implied earlier and was lambasted. They go on to say the core of the hurricane has been eroded and do not anticipate any restrengthening, even though it will be traversing warmer waters over the next 12-18 hours, and that the latest data actually supported lowering intensity. I will wait for others to review the data messages but the implications of "THE AIRCRAFT DID REPORT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF 50-55 KT 135 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.."....did they even find hurricane force winds or implied hurricane force winds at the surface? Yikes. It seems to me the entire discussion was based on the old flights.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like the NHC has Irene as a Cat 1 making landfall in NC, which I implied earlier and was lambasted. They go on to say the core of the hurricane has been eroded and do not anticipate any restrengthening, even though it will be traversing warmer waters over the next 12-18 hours, and that the latest data actually supported lowering intensity. Heresy in these spaces I dare say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z nam is right into C LI, the NE over ginx Number 11 number 11, the number of times models have Eyes on me. Jinx for the Ginx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 She's a pretty girl.... but this pic is too overexposed to really tell what's going on near the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Mandatory evacuation for Fairfield Beach starting at high noon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Mandatory evacuation for Fairfield Beach starting at high noon tomorrow. How far in are they evacuating JP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I just don't understand why some people feel they have to downplay everything and try and kill people's enthusiasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 AIT Westerly will also close the shoreline area south of Shore Road on Route 1A to everyone but residents and property owners at 8 a.m. Saturday, Hartford said. Police will set up checkpoints to prevent surfers and others from accessing the area. Oh well... still planning to go to a private beach on Point Judith Pond. It'll be easy for us to get there since we are residents and it won't be closed since parts of the neighborhood are far from the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 ALTHOUGH NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...IRENE COULD WEAKEN JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND Still leaving Bob as the last one ... there's always next year...sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 How far in are they evacuating JP? Edwards St and south, voluntary evacuation for those that are in mandated flood zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Mandatory evacuation for Fairfield Beach starting at high noon tomorrow. does that mean you can't post anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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