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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part IV


Typhoon Tip

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Brett Anderson's thoughts on AW which seem to be spot on IMO. "I would personally compare this storm to Gloria back in 1985 in terms of wind. --Very concerned about the flooding with Irene along the western side of the track, especially from Delaware to interior New England. We have already had near or record rainfall for the month of August from Philadelphia to NYC and the ground is saturated. Throw another 5-10 inches of water on top and you have serious flooding".

--Even if Irene weakens to category 1, the combination of saturated ground, top heavy trees loaded with water and leaves will create a situation where there is much more widespread uprooting of trees than normal with this same situation. I expect a tremendous amount of power outages all the way to Maine, but the worst will be from the Delmarva to western Connecticut.

--The angle of the hurricane, combined with the expected strength and slow weakening trend does not support a huge storm surge into southeastern New England, but more like 2-4 feet. This will not be like 1938! The 1938 hurricane was stronger, moved much faster which limited the time for weakening and came in on a different angle.

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CT Rain FTW

60-80 mph for MT Tolland :wub:

That's all you're thinking at your elevation? What did that area get during Gloria?

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Seminole thanks. I think the storm looks better, it's trying to get it back together. NAM is east at 24 hours from the 12z which makes sense, I do believe Irene is about to start getting nudged a little more east of the track it was following. I think it already is actually.

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Brett Anderson's thoughts on AW which seem to be spot on IMO. "I would personally compare this storm to Gloria back in 1985 in terms of wind. --Very concerned about the flooding with Irene along the western side of the track, especially from Delaware to interior New England. We have already had near or record rainfall for the month of August from Philadelphia to NYC and the ground is saturated. Throw another 5-10 inches of water on top and you have serious flooding".

--Even if Irene weakens to category 1, the combination of saturated ground, top heavy trees loaded with water and leaves will create a situation where there is much more widespread uprooting of trees than normal with this same situation. I expect a tremendous amount of power outages all the way to Maine, but the worst will be from the Delmarva to western Connecticut.

--The angle of the hurricane, combined with the expected strength and slow weakening trend does not support a huge storm surge into southeastern New England, but more like 2-4 feet. This will not be like 1938! The 1938 hurricane was stronger, moved much faster which limited the time for weakening and came in on a different angle.

I think the fact this is moving slower combined with a spread wind field and hitting at not only high tide but high astronomical tide is the problem, right? Big time surge.

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That's all you're thinking at your elevation? What did that area get during Gloria?

--

Seminole thanks. I think the storm looks better, it's trying to get it back together. NAM is east at 24 hours from the 12z which makes sense, I do believe Irene is about to start getting nudged a little more east of the track it was following. I think it already is actually.

I'm not sure. I wasn't in Tolland then. I lived 10 mins away in Vernon at like 300 feet ASL or lower.. We gusted to around 70

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Too bad none of the ALB stations would grant me a waiver to have a NYC station on my Directv. I would have liked just one since I travel there for work regularly etc. Maybe 5 so I could get Nick G. But the FCC rules grant each tv market a fiefdom.

Yup, federal regulatory bodies in all areas have this annoying characteristic of being more interested in increasing corporate profits rather than what's best for the public. Plutocracy....

Basically Bloomberg said for people who were outside of the city to stay out until Monday afternoon at the earliest. He said that mass transit, bridges, tunnels and such might not even be operational by then.

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Yup, federal regulatory bodies in all areas have this annoying characteristic of being more interested in ncreasing corporate profits than what's best for the public. Plutocracy....

Basically Bloomberg said for people who were outside of the city to stay out until Monday afternoon at the earliest. He said that mass transit, bridges, tunnels and such might not even be operational by then.

Look at what is going on here...State of Emergency and 60k fans goign to a concert Saturday night at Foxboro. If the storm speeds up considerably as they sometimes do...major nightmare. A lot of people just won't go. Corporate greed over smarts.

Lookign better or trying to http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CLT&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20110826&endTime=-1&duration=10

I think it's probably weakened since the last plane, figuring maybe 955? Tough to tell, looks like the center is on the western edge of the higher tops.

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