Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I looked at a Gloria IR image as it Crossed LI and it was getting real ragged and dry air intrusion etc, virtually no precip left south of the eye.... But you expect that up at 41 north. Not down where Irene is now.... The latest microwave pass already shows a very lopsided storm from north to south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friendwh Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I looked at a Gloria IR image as it Crossed LI and it was getting real ragged and dry air intrusion etc, virtually no precip left south of the eye.... But you expect that up at 41 north. Not down where Irene is now.... it's still pretty symmetrical, to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 frying pan shoals: Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true ) Wind Speed (WSPD): 38.9 kts Wind Gust (GST): 46.6 kts Wave Height (WVHT): 20.3 ft about 150 miles due south of irene That's very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 FWIW...Northern eyewall visible on Wilmington long-range radar. Motion still appears to be due north at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The jet streak to the north, and the large circulation is the real story in my opinion, the two will combine to produce a very large wind field, question will be how strong it is tom night into Sunday. I think solid tropical storm force winds in all coastal locales, with perhaps a few gusts to hurrican force in coastal sections of ri and mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Our call http://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/2011/08/26/hurricane-on-track-will-move-in-faster/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The jet streak to the north, and the large circulation is the real story in my opinion, the two will combine to produce a very large wind field, question will be how strong it is tom night into Sunday. I think solid tropical storm force winds in all coastal locales, with perhaps a few gusts to hurrican force in coastal sections of ri and mass. Nice. I think a lot of people are forgetting the bolded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 wilmington nc 14/ 24 ne myrtle beach international 18/25 n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I am trying to recall if I have ever been in a wind gust of 80mph...can't even think of what its like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Cloud tops have once again warmed and dry air is evident nw n and east of the circulation I think they're cooling. I think it looks a lot better in the last 2 hours. It could be poised to at the very least get back to a formidable 945-950mb cane versus what it was becoming. I looked at a Gloria IR image as it Crossed LI and it was getting real ragged and dry air intrusion etc, virtually no precip left south of the eye.... But you expect that up at 41 north. Not down where Irene is now.... Yes, that's my point. If it fails to regroup it looks a lot like a northern storm already. Irene is just battling a ton of dry air being entrained into the circulation, otherwise this would have been a devestating and historic major...in my opinion. I believe it was dry air to some extent and maybe some shear on the SW side. I tend to think dry air because it rotated into the storm and is now breaking up/being cycled out. The latest microwave pass already shows a very lopsided storm from north to south. Yeah it was ugly, as Rick said looked like a northern storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The jet streak to the north, and the large circulation is the real story in my opinion, the two will combine to produce a very large wind field, question will be how strong it is tom night into Sunday. I think solid tropical storm force winds in all coastal locales, with perhaps a few gusts to hurrican force in coastal sections of ri and mass. The story is that there is a freaking cat 2 hurricane barelling up the coast and it will slam into SNE for a 20 year storm.. And yes the storm is battling dry air.. is it necessary to keep posting dry air updates every 5 minutes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 FWIW...Northern eyewall visible on Wilmington long-range radar. Motion still appears to be due north at this time. Much of it visible from the Morehead City one also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Our call http://ryanhanrahan....move-in-faster/ Well done Ryan, you are forecasting some very impressive winds along the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Well done Ryan, you are forecasting some very impressive winds along the coast! More concerned about surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 More concerned about surge nothing for SE MA/ Cape/Islands...best guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JulieRI Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 A tad bit early. http://www.wpri.com/dpp/weather/hurricane/westerly-to-close-beaches-block-shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 More concerned about surge I am as well, I see Malloy said a surge of 4-5 ft in his news conference, that may be a bit misleading and on the low end. Combination of fresh water flooding/high tide/ and water piling up in the western sounds is what is making me nervous. Sub pump is ready to go, but of course without power and a generator its irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 15z SFEF's. Looks like the target is C LI up into CT over to ORH and NE. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I know your station doesn't give 2 fooks about NH, but it's nice to see me in the 60-80 mph zone . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 More concerned about surge Yes, great post...with places like far southeast Stratford being accessed by two roads (one through Great Meadows saltmarsh and another that floods over in a thunderstorm), I sure wouldn't want to be stuck down in that end. I'm wondering when or if they'll be told to leave. Some may be OK in their homes but will be cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I know your station doesn't give 2 fooks about NH, but it's nice to see me in the 60-80 mph zone . Any idea what sustained winds will be at and how frequent the gust will be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not me in VT Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Nice write up Ryan. I hope it verifies. Just got called to the firehouse for 8 am saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Any idea what sustained winds will be at and how frequent the gust will be? Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Any idea what sustained winds will be at and how frequent the gust will be? Just think Dec '05 with a longer peak, rain instead of snow, less thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just think Dec '05 with a longer peak, rain instead of snow, less thunder. I would except I wasn't out here until Dec 06.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 More concerned about surge Excellent write up Ryan, I think i pointed about a 1000 people to your blog this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I would except I wasn't out here until Dec 06.... My bad. There are several bouts of wind, not much with the PRE bands or outer bands. If you are on the coast , esp exposed south coast, winds will pick up way out ahead of the storm but die quickly once you go inland. It'll probably be gusting 50-70mph over most of Boston area for several hours, in several bouts. The wind will pick up and die down subtly in some cases, about 5 times in 5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Water vapor continues to look better, interesting wobble as the center tries to rebuild. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CLT&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20110826&endTime=-1&duration=10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 My bad. There are several bouts of wind, not much with the PRE bands or outer bands. If you are on the coast , esp exposed south coast, winds will pick up way out ahead of the storm but die quickly once you go inland. It'll probably be gusting 50-70mph over most of Boston area for several hours, in several bouts. The wind will pick up and die down subtly in some cases, about 5 times in 5 hours. Cool thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 frying pan shoals: Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true ) Wind Speed (WSPD): 38.9 kts Wind Gust (GST): 46.6 kts Wave Height (WVHT): 20.3 ft about 150 miles due south of irene just read that again - typo "of" was supposed to be "is"...i meant irene is about 150 miles due south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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