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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part IV


Typhoon Tip

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Down to 100, looks like dry air is being entrained into the core as well, whats up with the King?

100 and up to 951. Gloria was about 942 at this stage I think.

WV looks better, nice flare on the NW side but looks like more dry air making it into the southern side. I really do think it's turning although probably just straight north from a little west of that earlier. I'm hoping once we see it straight north of a little east of north maybe it regains some composure when it runs over the deep warm waters of the gulf stream.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20110826&endTime=-1&duration=5

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As much as I'm not rooting for this:

Cat 1 by the time it makes landfall in NC, TD TS by the time it reaches latitude of southern NJ...

The IR images of current vs. even just 4 hours ago show a pretty dramatic change: this is really struggling.

Once its structural integrity is lost, the collapse could accelerate, even with favorable SSTs.

I really hope I'm wrong and I'm not trying to piss people off.

As I said before, the next few hours are critical.

Apologies for the typo all... I of course meant TS (storm, not depression) by the time it reaches latitude of southern NJ...

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Looks like she's really organizing now. Dry air is gone..no shear..over the GS..Let's get it back to 115-120

Nope storm is weakening.. it will be down to a TD by NJ.. 85 deg and no shear is really unfavorable ..didn't you read the posts earlier?

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Great structure, although the center doesn't have a well defined CDO. As long as the outflow is established like that there is no way she is winding down. If anything the whole leveling off is probably just natural preparation in the center for another shot at strengthening ?

Shear is as much of a killer as cooler SSTs for TC up here - I don't think there is going to be a whole lot of shear. If Irene can wiggle around OBX and nne , we're in for a nasty hurricane.

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Great structure, although the center doesn't have a well defined CDO. As long as the outflow is established like that there is no way she is winding down. If anything the whole leveling off is probably just natural preparation in the center for another shot at strengthening ?

Shear is as much of a killer as cooler SSTs for TC up here - I don't think there is going to be a whole lot of shear. If Irene can wiggle around OBX and nne , we're in for a nasty hurricane.

Agreed. Good post. Was about to post something similar.

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Anyone else actually concerned about their weather station? I have a Davis Weather Pro.... is that hurricane proof?

It'll be OK. If you have the data logger you might want to set the interval to 5 minutes or greater in case you're without power for more than a couple of days. IIRC the longer the interval the longer you can go without having to download the data without losing it.

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Great structure, although the center doesn't have a well defined CDO. As long as the outflow is established like that there is no way she is winding down. If anything the whole leveling off is probably just natural preparation in the center for another shot at strengthening ?

Shear is as much of a killer as cooler SSTs for TC up here - I don't think there is going to be a whole lot of shear. If Irene can wiggle around OBX and nne , we're in for a nasty hurricane.

Yup... where it goes in NC is a tell tale sign of where it ill go here

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Nope storm is weakening.. it will be down to a TD by NJ.. 85 deg and no shear is really unfavorable ..didn't you read the posts earlier?

If it was just about shear and SST's the storm wouldn't have been weakening for the last 12 or so hours.

--

Really trying but still having dry air ingest http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20110826&endTime=-1&duration=5

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Easily the worst post of the year on the board. Congrats

Kevin, I'm rooting for this as much as anyone here.

I'm just trying to think about this objectively. I really hope I'm wrong.

As it is, the imagery is a little more encouraging in the past hour.

Cooling cloudtops have blossomed between 11-1 o'clock.

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