Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I understand but there is a thread dedicated to that I agree maybe we can maybe cut back on some of the IMBY damage concerns in this thread. But I don't think there's any reason I should not be able to make a post that I'm relieved if things start looking less favorable for big damage just because its against the wishcasts of others. You're being over-dramatic with your house. Bob was a bona fide hurricane with winds up to and over 100 MPH across extreme SouthEast New England yet structual damage was minor. This aint Bob. I mentioned last night...my fear is not directly from the winds...but rather the winds taking out a tree that in turn ends up on top of my house. I don't live there anymore...trying to sell the damn thing...and don't really have time or money for cleanup. Forgive me for being a bit nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Barry Burbank is really downplaying the hurricane (Tropical Storm). I just heard him on WBZ radio. I don't know who he is referring too but he talked about the fact that people are wrong that are calling this one of the worst storms to hit New England (maybe Weather Channel). Also said this won't be as bad as Bob was. We shall see. A tropical storm hit is now my forcast, Kinda like floyd but with a more in land type track. I still think this will make a huge mess, trees powerlines, roof damage, floods , storm surge, a tornado or two. But this wont be a life threating storm if you take cover. Unlike some storms that are so bad no matter what you could die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 As far as dry air ingestion, WV can be very deceiving in relation to ground truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 As much as I'm not rooting for this: Cat 1 by the time it makes landfall in NC, TD by the time it reaches latitude of southern NJ... The IR images of current vs. even just 4 hours ago show a pretty dramatic change: this is really struggling. Once its structural integrity is lost, the collapse could accelerate, even with favorable SSTs. I really hope I'm wrong and I'm not trying to piss people off. As I said before, the next few hours are critical. So you forecast an extreme weakening scenario. nhc doesn't seem to totally dismiss td or dissapated either, but seems unlikely to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 12z Ukie still west. Looks like it tracks over NYC up over the Enchanted Forest of W.Chesterfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Dam is she big can't wait to see her on our radars up here<br><br>strong TS or weak Cane still gonna be a wild time. whatever happens will happen.<br> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Neither WV or radar are good at diagnosing dry air. I honestly think dry air is a bit overplayed. There's some...and the ill timed ERC along with modest WSW shear allowed it to penetrate the core. However, I think it's more of a structure issue than a dry air issue. WV is too weighted toward the upper levels to determine how dry the air is...PWAT is a much better measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 as a I want it as strong as possible as a homeowner as weak as possible it's an awkward combo, but one I'm very used to The worst outcome would be fluke damage caused by an unimpressive storm. the conflicting vibes you're sending out are causing the storm to pulse up and down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 As far as dry air ingestion, WV can be very deceiving in relation to ground truth. I think the worst of the dry air entrainment is a little east of the radar's radius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 As much as I'm not rooting for this: Cat 1 by the time it makes landfall in NC, TD by the time it reaches latitude of southern NJ... The IR images of current vs. even just 4 hours ago show a pretty dramatic change: this is really struggling. Once its structural integrity is lost, the collapse could accelerate, even with favorable SSTs. I really hope I'm wrong and I'm not trying to piss people off. As I said before, the next few hours are critical. Easily the worst post of the year on the board. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Euro looks over coastal NJ at 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Euro looks over coastal NJ at 48 hours Lol, it won't budge from that western track. I'll call BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 A tropical storm hit is now my forcast, Kinda like floyd but with a more in land type track. I still think this will make a huge mess, trees powerlines, roof damage, floods , storm surge, a tornado or two. But this wont be a life threating storm if you take cover. Unlike some storms that are so bad no matter what you could die. It can get crazy inland and not be life threatening really if you take cover either. The danger is from flooding, and this storm appears to have potential in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Euro looks over coastal NJ at 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Euro is west. That is not coastal NJ..lol wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Irene has 30 hours of favorable environmental conditions before it reaches the north wall of the GS...we'll see if it is can restrengthen or at least maintain. Going to try pretty hard I think to restrengthen. Meanwhile it's about fully wrapped the dry air that worked in a few hours ago, looks to be drawn right into the eye now. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CLT&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20110826&endTime=-1&duration=6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 maybe there should just be a separate "this is my opinion on the storm thread". make your bets, call it the worst storm ever, overblown and hyped...whatever you want. just put it in another thread. STORM CANCEL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Euro is nearly at BGM....does this post belong in the whine thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Euro is waaaay west again...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Euro is west. That is not coastal NJ..lol wtf West of 00z that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Euro is west. That is not coastal NJ..lol wtf yeah sorry..it's tough to tell from Raleigh's maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think Phil's post earlier about the very high MAE and the west bias with Irene should give pause on buying the Eur'o"S very far west solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 yeah sorry..it's tough to tell from Raleigh's maps What's up with the gfs ensembles versus the Euro op? Are there just some outliers in the gfs ens weighing against a more correct west track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I've been in the bullseye for days almost every model western L.I oh well i'll get out the grundens LOL . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Perfect.. love where it is 60 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Down to 100, looks like dry air is being entrained into the core as well, whats up with the King? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think Phil's post earlier about the very high MAE and the west bias with Irene should give pause on buying the Eur'o"S very far west solution. I know I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think Phil's post earlier about the very high MAE and the west bias with Irene should give pause on buying the Eur'o"S very far west solution. Got word it's on the CT/NY line..not BGM like IRvine said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Anyone else actually concerned about their weather station? I have a Davis Weather Pro.... is that hurricane proof? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Got word it's on the CT/NY line..not BGM like IRvine said LOL I didn't say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.