Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part IV

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z GFS Ensm. mean.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

I think people are more inclined to post "hope it weakens" posts to try to piss everyone off

or because we really don't want damage to our or our familys' properties

I know its hard to believe on a weather board...but for some of us...when our personal life or property is at risk, we no longer hope for the extreme. Lot easier to sit back and watch a cat 5 cane barreling into the Gulf with no chance for escape when its not going to impact me directly. Its easy to wish for heavy snow because the ultimate risk on property is minimal. This is a whole different beast...and some of us would prefer not to experience it first hand. Yet everyone sees it as us trying to rain on the parade or stir the pot.

[DeVries]

just my .02, the tape and in most cases plywood is more trouble than it's worth.

inland damage to glass is usually from debris or falling trees, not straight up winds, and for the most part the plywood will hardly slow that stuff down.

Not saying it's useless, just not all that helpful most of the time.

Yeah, makes sense. Trees falling on the house is the major concern. But I figure if the tape puts them at ease, then just do it.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Barry Burbank is really downplaying the hurricane (Tropical Storm). I just heard him on WBZ radio. I don't know who he is referring too but he talked about the fact that people are wrong that are calling this one of the worst storms to hit New England (maybe Weather Channel). Also said this won't be as bad as Bob was. We shall see.

Others are doing the same. I'm not going to name names...but there are other old line mets who aren't impressed with the big damage potential based on the last six hours.

Pressure up to 951 mb w/last VDM. Would have to believe pressure at SNE will be higher than Gloria at this point.

Yep. And the latest snapshot isn't impressive. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20110826&endTime=-1&duration=6

It's trying but now the dry air is almost completely wrapping into the core and probably will do so over the next 1-2 hours. At the same time it does seem to want to rebuild a little, but I think it's going to be a tough haul.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

just my .02, the tape and in most cases plywood is more trouble than it's worth.

inland damage to glass is usually from debris or falling trees, not straight up winds, and for the most part the plywood will hardly slow that stuff down.

Not saying it's useless, just not all that helpful most of the time.

exactly what I've been back and forth on myself. definitely not worth boarding up all the windows...but I feel like it might be worth it on our back sliding glass door. We didn't install it...but its supposedly an expensive door.

[snowNH]

or because we really don't want damage to our or our familys' properties

I know its hard to believe on a weather board...but for some of us...when our personal life or property is at risk, we no longer hope for the extreme. Lot easier to sit back and watch a cat 5 cane barreling into the Gulf with no chance for escape when its not going to impact me directly. Its easy to wish for heavy snow because the ultimate risk on property is minimal. This is a whole different beast...and some of us would prefer not to experience it first hand. Yet everyone sees it as us trying to rain on the parade.

I understand but there is a thread dedicated to that

[centralmass]

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I should add it looks to me like it just took in another whiff of dry air from the SW, can see it in the last few frames of the water vapor. All seems to have coincided with the nose of dry air that made it into Florida....as that pushed south the hurricane sucked in a lot of dry air too.

[HarveyLeonardFan]

or because we really don't want damage to our or our familys' properties

I know its hard to believe on a weather board...but for some of us...when our personal life or property is at risk, we no longer hope for the extreme. Lot easier to sit back and watch a cat 5 cane barreling into the Gulf with no chance for escape when its not going to impact me directly. Its easy to wish for heavy snow because the ultimate risk on property is minimal. This is a whole different beast...and some of us would prefer not to experience it first hand. Yet everyone sees it as us trying to rain on the parade.

You're being over-dramatic with your house. Bob was a bona fide hurricane with winds up to and over 100 MPH across extreme SouthEast New England yet structual damage was minor. This aint Bob.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Wifes flight has been canceled coming from Philly. That plane was originating in NC and they are already moving planes out. They are all set to get to Philly, now they have to secure a car to get back to TF Green. UGH.

[mulen]

I work with people who have lost people to many a cane hate them that aside living in the bullseye right now isn't to comforting . i've done all my sandbagging gas buying water up the yang preparing for the worst i hope most of us can relax and hope for the best . Many on the board haven't seen the ugly side of mostly unpredictable weather environment heading at you humbling you bet your ass models are as good as yodels at landfall see ya.bostonfella if your out their hope all is well see ya.

[Baroclinic Zone]

You're being over-dramatic with your house. Bob was a bona fide hurricane with winds up to and over 100 MPH across extreme SouthEast New England yet structual damage was minor. This aint Bob.

Correct, it will be worse. The size of this storm dwarfs Bob and it's impacts will be over a larger population.

[dan11295]

It's trying but now the dry air is almost completely wrapping into the core and probably will do so over the next 1-2 hours. At the same time it does seem to want to rebuild a little, but I think it's going to be a tough haul.

Given this, I make the prediction that Irene will not officially be a hurricane at SNE landfall.

[HarveyLeonardFan]

I should add it looks to me like it just took in another whiff of dry air from the SW, can see it in the last few frames of the water vapor. All seems to have coincided with the nose of dry air that made it into Florida....as that pushed south the hurricane sucked in a lot of dry air too.

At this point I'd probably get more enjoyment watching images on tv of this thing plowing inland with gusts to 100 than rooting for it to stay out over the open waters and produce gusts to 60 up here.

[SnowMan]

Given this, I make the prediction that Irene will not officially be a hurricane at SNE landfall.

And you will be wrong....good job

[skierinvermont]

If I could pick a place to be it would be Old Saybrook

hi there

[Tropopause_Fold]

12z hwrf is pretty far east.

[skierinvermont]

is there any place I could buy an anemometer for cheap right now?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

That's east of the 6z.

I think Irene is about to start making the turn east of north....

Awesome 12 hour loop showing she's been battling dry air for a bit now. Nice little flare on the northern side...she's pulsed up and down a few times, maybe she can shake off this last ingest and regain as she hits the DEEPER warm water near the GS.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20110826&endTime=-1&duration=12

[correnjim1]

Given this, I make the prediction that Irene will not officially be a hurricane at SNE landfall.

In fact its not gonna be anything more than a passing shower lol.

[Tropopause_Fold]

maybe there should just be a separate "this is my opinion on the storm thread".

make your bets, call it the worst storm ever, overblown and hyped...whatever you want. just put it in another thread.

[CT Rain]

I am not particularly worried about Irene's current look... is looking ok to me.

[bobbutts]

as a I want it as strong as possible

as a homeowner as weak as possible

it's an awkward combo, but one I'm very used to

The worst outcome would be fluke damage caused by an unimpressive storm.

[wxsniss]

Given this, I make the prediction that Irene will not officially be a hurricane at SNE landfall.

As much as I'm not rooting for this:

Cat 1 by the time it makes landfall in NC, TD TS by the time it reaches latitude of southern NJ...

The IR images of current vs. even just 4 hours ago show a pretty dramatic change: this is really struggling.

Once its structural integrity is lost, the collapse could accelerate, even with favorable SSTs.

I really hope I'm wrong and I'm not trying to piss people off.

As I said before, the next few hours are critical.

EDIT: I of course mean TS (storm, not depression) by the team reaches latitude of southern NJ

[ackwaves]

WTF happened to Irene. Her tits are hanging like fried eggs on a nail!

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SPN/COMP/

[SnowMan]

I am not particularly worried about Irene's current look... is looking ok to me.

Great to hear this from a Met who is usually conservative...

[Ed Lizard]

Of course, about that 115 knots at 900 mb, aircraft at 700 mb aren't even close to that now, and I don't see much strengthening from this point on. Maybe not as much weakening as some expect, with a large storm and some substantial forcing from the jet, but still, that model should be fixd, retired, or at least labelled "for weenie entertainment purposes only".

[OSUmetstud]

Irene has 30 hours of favorable environmental conditions before it reaches the north wall of the GS...we'll see if it is can restrengthen or at least maintain.

[Baroclinic Zone]

maybe there should just be a separate "this is my opinion on the storm thread".

make your bets, call it the worst storm ever, overblown and hyped...whatever you want. just put it in another thread.

[ChrisM]

TD by the time it reaches latitude of southern NJ...