ChrisM Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 There are some straight up dcks in that main thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Given his twitter rants about NHC classification, JB must be stomping around his office screaming at the walls as Irene clearly weakens. Must be the only thing keeping him from posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If you look at the water vapor loop...looks like Irene has been struggling/ingesting some dry air at the mid-levels since earlier this morning...which really isn't apparent on the IR until the last couple frames. A lot have been mentioning once these things expand is size they usually struggle with intensity. Is it possible for a cane like this with a large wind field lose some of its bite on its outer fringes while its inner core regroups...essentially consolidating into a smaller storm with a smaller wind field? I may just be talking out my azz...but even if that were a possibility, she's running out of time to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 There are some straight up dcks in that main thread Certainly not in this thread anymore. We're taking in more air than watching ole Kareem try and get up and down the court in his final years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Given his twitter rants about NHC classification, JB must be stomping around his office screaming at the walls as Irene clearly weakens. Must be the only thing keeping him from posting. He called for the storm to hit Albany yesterday.. he's an idiot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What's everyones best guest for peak wind in wakefield, ri? And best guess for surge problems in the point judith pond areao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What's everyones best guest for peak wind in wakefield, ri? And best guess for surge problems in the point judith pond areao Too early.. post that again tomorrow and someone will probably answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 He called for the storm to hit Albany yesterday.. he's an idiot not saying he's not an idiot...but I wouldn't call him one based solely on the Albany call. A lot of the models yesterday were trending west and had this thing headed up due north just to the east of the Hudson valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Any thoughts on the idea that without a good structure, we have risk of weakening even more quickly than forecast? Is there "inertia" to a healthy structure that sustains hurricane strength even over colder SSTs and longer over land? IR for past 12 hours says we have a really unhealthy structure, and seems to me the next 6 hours will be critical: If we can get some better structure, this could maintain strength or even strengthen slightly as the NHC forecast has it. Otherwise, I think there is a chance we weaken more quickly than NHC forecasts... ie barely Cat1 by time reaches Outerbanks, TD by the time it reaches NJ latitude Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What's everyones best guest for peak wind in wakefield, ri? And best guess for surge problems in the point judith pond areao 65-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 There are some straight up dcks in that main thread It pisses me off when some met posters think only they should post.. this isn't a NOAA conference here.. The Mets in here are great. They are really understanding They do have a banter thread though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 not saying he's not an idiot...but I wouldn't call him one based solely on the Albany call. A lot of the models yesterday were trending west and had this thing headed up due north just to the east of the Hudson valley. Not solely on that call lol.. prior experiences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 not saying he's not an idiot...but I wouldn't call him one based solely on the Albany call. A lot of the models yesterday were trending west and had this thing headed up due north just to the east of the Hudson valley. JB has star power because he has a personality and a high energy brand. He's a weather ambulance chaser but it hasn't stopped him from earning a decent living for himself. He's like the Hannity/Olbermann of weather. He who has energy is a lot more successful than brilliant people who lack his energy and personality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It pisses me off when some met posters think only they should post.. this isn't a NOAA conference here.. The Mets in here are great. They are really understanding They do have a banter thread though.. No, but it is a weather board, a private one at that, so whoever owns it or runs it can choose who can or cannot post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Any thoughts on the idea that without a good structure, we have risk of weakening even more quickly than forecast? Is there "inertia" to a healthy structure that sustains hurricane strength even over colder SSTs and longer over land? IR for past 12 hours says we have a really unhealthy structure, and seems to me the next 6 hours will be critical: If we can get some better structure, this could maintain strength or even strengthen slightly as the NHC forecast has it. Otherwise, I think there is a chance we weaken more quickly than NHC forecasts... ie barely Cat1 by time reaches Outerbanks, TD by the time it reaches NJ latitude Thoughts? I know the NHC sat site lags a bit but the eyewall is exposed on the eastern side now which I think was what the hunters had found awhile back. As the other poster noted she grabbed a lot of dry air this morning? Now it's a question of whether or not she can regroup or if it's all downhill from here. It almost appears to be trying to get organized again but like you said next few hours are critical. If she doesn't I think the 20% decrease we have seen in NHC forecasts for this time period may be repeated in the tiime period as it approaches us. It really looks bad right now, cloud tops really warmed. Looks more like a storm struggling up NNE of the Carolinas east of Jersey than one sitting down there in the hot water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Nice to see the GFS maintain track from 00 and 6z.. Came home to put patio stuff away and mow the lawn... Noyes gives a nice breakdown of state by state damage potential on Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I know the NHC sat site lags a bit but the eyewall is exposed on the eastern side now which I think was what the hunters had found awhile back. As the other poster noted she grabbed a lot of dry air this morning? Now it's a question of whether or not she can regroup or if it's all downhill from here. It almost appears to be trying to get organized again but like you said next few hours are critical. If she doesn't I think the 20% decrease we have seen in NHC forecasts for this time period may be repeated in the tiime period as it approaches us. It really looks bad right now, cloud tops really warmed. Looks more like a storm struggling up NNE of the Carolinas east of Jersey than one sitting down there in the hot water. Cloud tops always warm this time of day during the diurnal cycle..We'll see them cool again as we get near sunset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 From a wind perspective - the gust will be frequent right versus just here and there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Any thoughts on the idea that without a good structure, we have risk of weakening even more quickly than forecast? Is there "inertia" to a healthy structure that sustains hurricane strength even over colder SSTs and longer over land? IR for past 12 hours says we have a really unhealthy structure, and seems to me the next 6 hours will be critical: If we can get some better structure, this could maintain strength or even strengthen slightly as the NHC forecast has it. Otherwise, I think there is a chance we weaken more quickly than NHC forecasts... ie barely Cat1 by time reaches Outerbanks, TD by the time it reaches NJ latitude Thoughts? And look at all that dry air at 500 and 700mb all around the northern half...TD depressions up to -24!! She ingests that and she's off the map in 36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Power loss length is only somewhat storm dependent. In Rita, we were in the dark for about 12 hours (no sustained hurricane winds here) but 10 miles away in Humble, TX people went two weeks. We were dark for almost 6 days after Ike, some neighborhoods were back on in a couple of days, some were out for two weeks. My office has underground cables, and we had power (and work) the Monday after Ike. SNE is a whole different animal when it somes to vegetation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Nice to see the GFS maintain track from 00 and 6z.. Came home to put patio stuff away and mow the lawn... Noyes gives a nice breakdown of state by state damage potential on Twitter Can you post any of the tweets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Even if it hits New England as a high end tropical storm, the pre-storm rain event and large size of the gale force wind fields suggests many trees, and therefore many powerlines, and inland, serious river flooding. Maybe a foot of rain in under 2 days. BIg deal for much of New England even if it weakens to a 50 or 60 knot storm. Large fetch also suggests larger storm surge than would be expected for the max winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It pisses me off when some met posters think only they should post.. this isn't a NOAA conference here.. ...except that is not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I know the NHC sat site lags a bit but the eyewall is exposed on the eastern side now which I think was what the hunters had found awhile back. As the other poster noted she grabbed a lot of dry air this morning? Now it's a question of whether or not she can regroup or if it's all downhill from here. It almost appears to be trying to get organized again but like you said next few hours are critical. If she doesn't I think the 20% decrease we have seen in NHC forecasts for this time period may be repeated in the tiime period as it approaches us. It really looks bad right now, cloud tops really warmed. Looks more like a storm struggling up NNE of the Carolinas east of Jersey than one sitting down there in the hot water. really a tough call right now. almost look like everything but the inner core is slowly falling apart. Even if there's a fire up of convection this afternoon...seems like it would be regulated to around the inner core as the rest of the system really seems to be starting to struggle with some dry air. Hence my question about whether we've see canes in the past re consolidate into smaller systems. Could be Irene's only hope to intensify again...as she's just about done with her trek over open waters with minimal land interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 inner eyewall is a half-open on the left side...outer wind maxima is there with a moat in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 MattNoyesNECN Matt Noyes Great question from Facebook Friend Stefani Bush about tornado threat. Tornadoes typically can occur in the... http://fb.me/11QpW62GF1 hour ago Favorite Retweet Reply »MattNoyesNECN Matt Noyes Biggest Impacts by State - CT: Sun PM wind damage trees/wires down, Sun. Flooding, coastal flood, storm surge east1 hour ago Favorite Retweet Reply »ryanhanrahan Ryan Hanrahan Hurricane Gloria at the same latitude as Irene was a category 1 hurricane. #hurricaneirene is still a 2.1 hour ago Favorite Retweet Reply »MattNoyesNECN Matt Noyes Biggest Impact by State - RI: Sun. PM Wind damage, trees/wires down; storm surge Sun. worst in Narragansett Bay1 hour ago Favorite Retweet Reply »MattNoyesNECN Matt Noyes Biggest Impact by State - MA: Sun. flooding west/central, Sun. midday/PM wind central/east w/trees&lines down, coastal flood1 hour ago Favorite Retweet Reply »MattNoyesNECN Matt Noyes Biggest Impact by State - Maine: Sunday Flooding, Sunday eve coastal scattered wind damage, Sun night coastal flood1 hour ago Favorite Retweet Reply »MattNoyesNECN Matt Noyes Biggest Impact by State - New Hampshire: Sunday flooding, Sunday PM wind damage/power outages south/central1 hour ago Favorite Retweet Reply »MattNoyesNECN Matt Noyes Biggest Impacts By State - Vermont: Sunday Flooding1 hour ago Favorite Retweet Reply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Cloud tops always warm this time of day during the diurnal cycle..We'll see them cool again as we get near sunset its not just the warming cloud tops...look at the dry air on water vapor now also becoming apparent on the IR. Plus...open eye wall? Not saying she's completely done...but my confidence wouldn't be high expecting any significant reintensification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This really shows how the expansion of the windfield is compensating for the drop in intensity thought this was worth re-posting from live thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 SNE is a whole different animal when it somes to vegetation. My grandmother lived in Quincy and I had relatives in Marshfield (near Plymouth). Besides the PRE, and winds at least gusting near hurricane force, the trees have their leaves. I think even a strong TS at landfall is a major deal as far as power outages in Southern New England, and while highest winds look to be in the East, heaviest rain and muddiest ground will be in Western New England, so some trees will go down everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 well-organized hurricanes are not affected by the diurnal cycle that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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