Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part IV

[OSUmetstud]

I was saying to Ray last night on FB that sometimes ERC plus shear = storm never totally getting its act together, but it doesn't mean it can't go up 10mph or so. Like you said, it put its time and enery to wijd field for now.

I don't think it will strengthen. We've seen this before...once a storm gets internal structure issues with a very broad windfield even with favorable environmental conditions it's difficult to restrengthen. There wasn't an eye on the last recon.

[CoastalWx]

WTF is wrong with PPL? Nobody is saying a CAT 4. But a CAT 1 going the NHC track will bring significant tree damage to much of SNE and surge to the south coast. Nobody is expecting every roof to fly off, nor should they. However maybe some sturctures damaged near the south coast I would guess, from wind alone.

[OKpowdah]

Just for reference:

Irene, currently:

64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

50 KT.......125NE 105SE 75SW 75NW.

34 KT.......250NE 200SE 130SW 175NW.

12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 180SW 210NW.

Katrina's maximum size, right before landfall:

64 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW.

50 KT.......140NE 140SE 75SW 75NW.

34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 100NW.

12 FT SEAS..325NE 250SE 250SW 0NW.

[CoastalWx]

I don't think it will strengthen. We've seen this before...once a storm gets internal structure issues with a very broad windfield even with favorable environmental conditions it's difficult to restrengthen. There wasn't an eye on the last recon.

Yeah I agree with that assessment. I guess it could fluctuate 5-10 mph here or there.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

It's had internal structure issues..ERC etc. I think the modest about of shear during the ERC might have allowed for some dry air to the northwest to penetrate the inner core. Nonetheless, Irene is huge and huge storms weaken slower than small ones. Even though the pressure dropped, it appears the most of the work went into strengthening and broadening the wind field as opposed to strengthening the eyewall.

Thanks. It's also been passing over some slightly cooler water. It's probably a few hours away from getting into the edge of the warmer water and it may be that we see it pull together somewhat. The part that caught my eye is the lack of translation of winds up high down to the surface.

[OSUmetstud]

for the record, I am into hating ERCs for the time being.

[Damage In Tolland]

And no offense but everyone on here is pushing for doom and gloom and wants a 38 storm. Jim Cantore's job is to get ratings for TWC. What do you want him to say? It's going to be a dud? TWC is the ESPN of weather forecasting and that's not necessarily a good thing. Two of the better teams of mets in CT Fox 61 and NBC30 have not directly said this is 38. Geoff Fox had one of the best weather forecasts I have even seen Wednesday night when the path was a Cat 2 over CT and he even said it will be "nothing like 1938". I have the utmost respect for Brad Field's and Geoff Fox's opinion and give what they say at lot more credence in comparison to what ANYONE at TWC says.

Geoff Fox is not a met. Doesn;t even have his degree LOL..He's simply a reporter who does the weather

[adamrivers]

The models all seem to be coming in different regarding the timing of the storm.....what is a good consensus at this point?

[subdude]

38 was a cat 3 and this will be a cat 1, if that. Irene has never strengthened once like it was supposed to and has "underperformed" so far. Not to mention we still don't know it's path, which could be over land for a considerable amount of time. Comparing this to the 38 storm is extreme. No way, no how. If you're expecting a 38 type storm you're in for a serious let down. I hope Jim Cantore reads this because he needs to step away from the 38 Kool-Aid as well.

agreed, 38 seems a bit extreme to compare think more like Carol in 54. Track looks hauntingly familiar.

[Baroclinic Zone]

i gotta take a break from reading some of this stuff.

ttyl.

Yup. Too much crap being posted.

[Ginx snewx]

Yup. Too much crap being posted.

Timing?, thread does not seem that bad, take a valium.

[CT Rain]

WTF is wrong with PPL? Nobody is saying a CAT 4. But a CAT 1 going the NHC track will bring significant tree damage to much of SNE and surge to the south coast. Nobody is expecting every roof to fly off, nor should they. However maybe some sturctures damaged near the south coast I would guess, from wind alone.

Gloria made landfall in BDR as a 65 knot cat 1

[OSUmetstud]

fugly

[Cloudsncontrails]

Geoff Fox is not a met. Doesn;t even have his degree LOL..He's simply a reporter who does the weather

Big frigging whoop. He's only done the weather for the last 20 something years, must know something right? He'll be more right than Cantore on this.

[Damage In Tolland]

agreed, 38 seems a bit extreme to compare think more like Carol in 54. Track looks hauntingly familiar.

After quickly crossing the Long Island Sound the hurricane made its final landfall on Old Saybrook, Connecticut.^[3] Carol was a small hurricane, with the strongest winds near and to the east of the center. The eye remained well-defined as it made landfall, unusual for New England hurricane landfalls; residents in Groton, Connecticut reported clear skies and calm conditions as the hurricane made landfall, which was followed by an increase to hurricane-force winds 30 minutes later

[Damage In Tolland]

Big frigging whoop. He's only done the weather for the last 20 something years, must know something right? He'll be more right than Cantore on this.

LOL..ok dude

[CoastalWx]

Gloria made landfall in BDR as a 65 knot cat 1

Yeah and I had no power for 4 days..lol.

[Damage In Tolland]

Big frigging whoop. He's only done the weather for the last 20 something years, must know something right? He'll be more right than Cantore on this.

Carol was similar to the New England Hurricane of 1938, as they were near the same intensity when affecting New England

[adamrivers]

Yup. Too much crap being posted.

My apologies if my question was annoying to the thread - some of us have to travel and don't have a choice on Sunday and want to know when the best time is going to be

[OKpowdah]

fugly

decently symmetric at least.

Ugh, man this was so close to being a big storm (yes, I know, still high impact), but conditions still are great for intensification. Easily could have been a category 4 storm approaching the outer banks

[wxsniss]

Appreciate the discussion on strength OSU / messenger / Coastal... lotta focus on the modeled track overnight, and less on the strength and structure of the storm.

I was hitting this late last night... IR Sats looked horrible 12am-4am, and continue to look poor this morning. In fact, I don't think we've ever seen a clean and complete eye except for the pinhole eye on Wednesday, and briefly Thursday evening. Evidence of at least 2 ERCs, and maybe even 2 "moats" on flight recons. Last night, I was actually somewhat surprised to see continued pressure drops without a clear eye.

I think this has a risk of disappointing... right now best analog is Gloria 85, but even Gloria had better structure and I'm worried about what comes out the other end of NC...

[DomNH]

Yeah and I had no power for 4 days..lol.

Saturated ground, leaves on the trees, and higher winds than the Feb. '10 nor'easter and that left 100k without power in NH. Tree damage should be really solid...no one should be expecting traffic lights snapping off their poles and floating down the street here.

[Baroclinic Zone]

My apologies if my question was annoying to the thread - some of us have to travel and don't have a choice on Sunday and want to know when the best time is going to be

Early.

[Cloudsncontrails]

LOL..ok dude

I can't wait for Tropical Storm Irene to make landfall in NE so I can come back to this thread and read all this 1938 hurricane stuff and laugh. This storm looks weaker with each advisory and less and less impressive. The chances of me not living like a caveman for the next two weeks is improving every hour. I'm going to feel bad for everyone who watched TWC and their video clips of 1938, believed the hype and rushed out to by generators.

[bobbutts]

Just for reference:

Irene, currently:

64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

50 KT.......125NE 105SE 75SW 75NW.

34 KT.......250NE 200SE 130SW 175NW.

12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 180SW 210NW.

Katrina's maximum size, right before landfall:

64 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW.

50 KT.......140NE 140SE 75SW 75NW.

34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 100NW.

12 FT SEAS..325NE 250SE 250SW 0NW.

thanks for posting that.. adds some perspective.. how are those numbers for other NE landfalling Hurricanes?

[Damage In Tolland]

I can't wait for Tropical Storm Irene to make landfall in NE so I can come back to this thread and read all this 1938 hurricane stuff and laugh. This storm looks weaker with each advisory and less and less impressive. The chances of me not living like a caveman for the next two weeks is improving every hour. I'm going to feel bad for everyone who watched TWC and their video clips of 1938, believed the hype and rushed out to by generators.

Hopefully it's only 2 trees that fall on your house..not 4

[OKpowdah]

Just for reference:

Irene, currently:

64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

50 KT.......125NE 105SE 75SW 75NW.

34 KT.......250NE 200SE 130SW 175NW.

12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 180SW 210NW.

Katrina's maximum size, right before landfall:

64 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW.

50 KT.......140NE 140SE 75SW 75NW.

34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 100NW.

12 FT SEAS..325NE 250SE 250SW 0NW.

And Ike:

64 KT.......110NE 90SE 55SW 75NW.

50 KT.......160NE 160SE 80SW 100NW.

34 KT.......240NE 200SE 150SW 170NW.

12 FT SEAS..425NE 425SE 270SW 150NW.

[bobbutts]

I can't wait for Tropical Storm Irene to make landfall in NE so I can come back to this thread and read all this 1938 hurricane stuff and laugh. This storm looks weaker with each advisory and less and less impressive. The chances of me not living like a caveman for the next two weeks is improving every hour. I'm going to feel bad for everyone who watched TWC and their video clips of 1938, believed the hype and rushed out to by generators.

there's about 100 people all laughing at you bro.. have fun hassling ct. blizz

[CT Rain]

Up to 3 SNE posters on the ignore list so far for this storm and the list is growing!

So far no Kevin but we're early in the game.

[SnowMan]

I can't wait for Tropical Storm Irene to make landfall in NE so I can come back to this thread and read all this 1938 hurricane stuff and laugh. This storm looks weaker with each advisory and less and less impressive. The chances of me not living like a caveman for the next two weeks is improving every hour. I'm going to feel bad for everyone who watched TWC and their video clips of 1938, believed the hype and rushed out to by generators.

Why are you posting here? Just to get people riled up? Go somewhere else....