Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 38 was a cat 3 and this will be a cat 1, if that. Irene has never strengthened once like it was supposed to and has "underperformed" so far. Not to mention we still don't know it's path, which could be over land for a considerable amount of time. Comparing this to the 38 storm is extreme. No way, no how. If you're expecting a 38 type storm you're in for a serious let down. I hope Jim Cantore reads this because he needs to step away from the 38 Kool-Aid as well. Where in CT do you live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 38 was a cat 3 and this will be a cat 1, if that. Irene has never strengthened once like it was supposed to and has "underperformed" so far. Not to mention we still don't know it's path, which could be over land for a considerable amount of time. Comparing this to the 38 storm is extreme. No way, no how. If you're expecting a 38 type storm you're in for a serious let down. I hope Jim Cantore reads this because he needs to step away from the 38 Kool-Aid as well. No offense dude, but Jim Cantore and the mets on here that are saying it could be close to 38 know WAY more than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I almost wonder if a more expansive windfield like this and sheer size of the storm is better for keeping the higher winds for us than if it was smaller but had gotten to a strong 3 or 4 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I feel for all the people in the area that got whacked by the tornadoes in June. There are still a lot of rebuilds half finished in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Look at the red tag post above yours.. Just taking the category number and thinking you can predict the surge from that is not going to yield good result. I 100% agree that this is not 1938, but using that evidence to dismiss the surge potential here is a dangerous mistake What was the surge with Ike? That would seem to be a good comparison to this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yes indeed, salute to you from Stratford...I think I'll be in better shape but we're all in this one together, especially since it's the first most of us have experienced on this level. Bob is a faint memory for a nearly 6 year-old me. Time to go prep Stratford Point! You know, the piece of land that sticks way out in to the waters of LIS at the mouth of the Housatonic It would be amazing (but also amazingly stupid) to ride it out there. I'll be a few miles inland, though whenever power comes back I'll have photos and videos of all sorts of things. Yeah this is going to be my first encounter with a tropical cyclone. I was born a few days after Bob. I'm a little nervous, but mostly excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I almost wonder if a more expansive windfield like this and sheer size of the storm is better for keeping the higher winds for us than if it was smaller but had gotten to a strong 3 or 4 . this^ we are not tight core snobs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I almost wonder if a more expansive windfield like this and sheer size of the storm is better for keeping the higher winds for us than if it was smaller but had gotten to a strong 3 or 4 . I was thinking this as well. It only makes sense that this would spread the winds out more over a larger area and therefore crush pretty much everyone south of CON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 11 am NHC looks like it drops it to a mininal cat 1 75-80 mph before landfall in SNE, so yo would be looking at lower winds than Gloria, but longer duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The 11am advisory blows. The cloud tops are warming and there isn't even an eye to speak of? What's up with this storm, most were thinking it was really going to wrap up? What's the inhibiting factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 38 was a cat 3 and this will be a cat 1, if that. Irene has never strengthened once like it was supposed to and has "underperformed" so far. Not to mention we still don't know it's path, which could be over land for a considerable amount of time. Comparing this to the 38 storm is extreme. No way, no how. If you're expecting a 38 type storm you're in for a serious let down. I hope Jim Cantore reads this because he needs to step away from the 38 Kool-Aid as well. I'm in your camp. A lot of people are getting caught up in the moment....But, I must say the satellite images taking up half the eastern seaboard are tantalizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 No offense dude, but Jim Cantore and the mets on here that are saying it could be close to 38 know WAY more than you. No offense dude.. he's on twc and says that crap for ratings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 OT but this might be good for the local economy , putting construction workers back to work, hire local if you need someone. Watch the shysters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hambone Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 As of 10:52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm in your camp. A lot of people are getting caught up in the moment....But, I must say the satellite images taking up half the eastern seaboard are tantalizing. Your boy ghiorse is riding his horsey and pimping this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What was the surge with Ike? That would seem to be a good comparison to this storm? the surge with IKE was 15 ft...but that's only because it didn't make landfall just left of Galveston...it would have been 22 ft + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 i gotta take a break from reading some of this stuff. ttyl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 11 am NHC looks like it drops it to a mininal cat 1 75-80 mph before landfall in SNE, so yo would be looking at lower winds than Gloria, but longer duration. Yeah but consider that the NHC has been gradually lowering the winds at that range and what you have is a 60-75 sustained storm hitting if that trend continues and she continues to gradually weaken in terms of top winds. I said yesterday winds would top out about low 60's here, still think that's the case unless she strengthens. Downside risk JMHO is much greater. 50 mph winds over a broad area aren't going to do a ton of damage aside of the areas that get drowned with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Please make sure you have a transfer switch installed by a qualified electrician. If you power a subpanel (or your main panel) with a generator, you need to take steps to not back feed your neighborhood. To anyone else who is planning to hook up a generator to their panel without a properly installed transfer switch, please at least turn off the "main" breaker in your panel. Otherwise you will be sending power from the generator out to the poles on your street, creating a nasty surprise for the people working on the poles. If you don't have a whole trasnsfer switch/subpanel set-up, you best bet is to just use extension cords from the gennie. Be safe Very good point Butter, we were just taliking about this at break. Hoping for the best, prepping for the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 FWIW, look at SSTs between it and Hatteras...don't know if that 32C is a buoy error but seems the SSTs only go up before it hits NC http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/351_50.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 this^ we are not tight core snobs That's only for folks below 32N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 weakening and drifting west...opposite of hwrf....great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Look at the red tag post above yours.. Just taking the category number and thinking you can predict the surge from that is not going to yield good result. I 100% agree that this is not 1938, but using that evidence to dismiss the surge potential here is a dangerous mistake That is not my sole basis for saying this is not 38, but it's a key indicator. Not only did 38 bring heavy devastation to most of SNE and NE in general but it also flooded massive areas as well. I am pretty confident people won't need canoes to navigate the streets of Hartford Monday. I'm pretty confident hundreds of people won't die in NE with Irene. I'm pretty confident our transportation system won't be shut down because of Irene and I'm pretty confident thousands of homes won't be outright destroyed because of Irene. This storm will cause flooding, and disrupt our lives for a week or two for the majority of us. That's it. I live in E CT and work in the greater Hartford area. Providing the road is clear and my employer has power I am fully anticipating being at work Monday morning which I'm confident will happen. Regarding my statement of underperforming, yes I think it has. How many times was this supposed to be a Cat 4 storm? Never once has it reached that status. It has at it's best been a strong 3. It had encountered a lot of shear and has wrapped in lots of dry air cutting down it's performance. When nor easters approach NE they always wrap in dry air and weaken the storm. I expect the same with this. Like I said at best this is a weak Cat 1 when iif makes landfall on LI/CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 As of 10:52 that chart is absolutely bunk They drew a standard tropical core for a system that will certainly not be structured that way at this latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yeah but consider that the NHC has been gradually lowering the winds at that range and what you have is a 60-75 sustained storm hitting if that trend continues and she continues to gradually weaken in terms of top winds. I said yesterday winds would top out about low 60's here, still think that's the case unless she strengthens. Downside risk JMHO is much greater. 50 mph winds over a broad area aren't going to do a ton of damage aside of the areas that get drowned with rain. It's had internal structure issues..ERC etc. I think the modest about of shear during the ERC might have allowed for some dry air to the northwest to penetrate the inner core. Nonetheless, Irene is huge and huge storms weaken slower than small ones. Even though the pressure dropped, it appears the most of the work went into strengthening and broadening the wind field as opposed to strengthening the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 i gotta take a break from reading some of this stuff. ttyl. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 FWIW, look at SSTs between it and Hatteras...don't know if that 32C is a buoy error but seems the SSTs only go up before it hits NC http://www.weatherof...ysis/351_50.gif It's going to go over the heart of the GS soon. That said advisory predictions for 12z on the 26th. 11am advisory on Tuesday 110 knots, 125mph 11pm advisory on Tuesday 110 knots, 125mph 11am advisory on Wednesday 110 knots , 125mph 11pm advisory on Wednesday 110 knots, 125mph 11am advisory on Thursday 110 knots, 125mph 11pm advisory on Thursday 105 knots, 120mph Actual 90 knots 105mph That's a signficant change from yesterday and last night. We're not looking at a 125mph beast approaching NC, it's barely 100mph unless it strengthens. Immense difference between a 125 and 105 especially if it's going to interact with land at 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That is not my sole basis for saying this is not 38, but it's a key indicator. Not only did 38 bring heavy devastation to most of SNE and NE in general but it also flooded massive areas as well. I am pretty confident people won't need canoes to navigate the streets of Hartford Monday. I'm pretty confident hundreds of people won't die in NE with Irene. I'm pretty confident our transportation system won't be shut down because of Irene and I'm pretty confident thousands of homes won't be outright destroyed because of Irene. This storm will cause flooding, and disrupt our lives for a week or two for the majority of us. That's it. I live in E CT and work in the greater Hartford area. Providing the road is clear and my employer has power I am fully anticipating being at work Monday morning which I'm confident will happen. Regarding my statement of underperforming, yes I think it has. How many times was this supposed to be a Cat 4 storm? Never once has it reached that status. It has at it's best been a strong 3. It had encountered a lot of shear and has wrapped in lots of dry air cutting down it's performance. When nor easters approach NE they always wrap in dry air and weaken the storm. I expect the same with this. Like I said at best this is a weak Cat 1 when iif makes landfall on LI/CT. There's alot right about your post, but you are obsessing over the storm's category at landfall and we're talking about surge. The more you dig on this subject, the more you'll find it's directly correlated to the things the professionals are talking about here and not the storm's maximum wind speed (category). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It's had internal structure issues..ERC etc. I think the modest about of shear during the ERC might have allowed for some dry air to the northwest to penetrate the inner core. Nonetheless, Irene is huge and huge storms weaken slower than small ones. Even though the pressure dropped, it appears the most of the work went into strengthening and broadening the wind field as opposed to strengthening the eyewall. I was saying to Ray last night on FB that sometimes ERC plus shear = storm never totally getting its act together, but it doesn't mean it can't go up 10mph or so. Like you said, it put its time and enery to wijd field for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That is not my sole basis for saying this is not 38, but it's a key indicator. Not only did 38 bring heavy devastation to most of SNE and NE in general but it also flooded massive areas as well. I am pretty confident people won't need canoes to navigate the streets of Hartford Monday. I'm pretty confident hundreds of people won't die in NE with Irene. I'm pretty confident our transportation system won't be shut down because of Irene and I'm pretty confident thousands of homes won't be outright destroyed because of Irene. This storm will cause flooding, and disrupt our lives for a week or two for the majority of us. That's it. I live in E CT and work in the greater Hartford area. Providing the road is clear and my employer has power I am fully anticipating being at work Monday morning which I'm confident will happen. Regarding my statement of underperforming, yes I think it has. How many times was this supposed to be a Cat 4 storm? Never once has it reached that status. It has at it's best been a strong 3. It had encountered a lot of shear and has wrapped in lots of dry air cutting down it's performance. When nor easters approach NE they always wrap in dry air and weaken the storm. I expect the same with this. Like I said at best this is a weak Cat 1 when iif makes landfall on LI/CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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