HeatMiser Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 DCA: +1.5 NYC: +1.3 BOS: +1.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 DCA: 1.5 NYC: 0.5 BOS: 0.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DerekZ Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 DCA: +1.1 NYC: +1.0 BOS: +0.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 DCA: +1.8 NYC: +1.5 BOS: +1.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 DCA .. -1.1 NYC .. -1.3 BOS .. -1.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 DCA: +0.4 NYC: -0.8 BOS: -0.6 TOT: -1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 DCA: +2.1 NYC: +1.7 BOS: +1.6 tot: 5.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I've looked up the "old" ("contest" or 1971-2000) and the "new" ("reported" or 1981-2010) normals for the remaining months, so that I can adjust the reported values to contest-friendly values. If I remember, look for these in the Oct, Nov and Dec contest threads at some early stage if you want to factor them into your forecasts. For September (too late now) the contest normals with updated in brackets are: DCA ... 70.5 (71.0) NYC ... 67.5 (68.0) BOS ... 64.7 (64.9) In other words, this month, we should be adding half a degree to the reported anomalies for DCA and NYC, and 0.2 for BOS, to convert them to "contest-friendly" values. (when I say add half a degree, I mean adjust by +0.5 incl negatives). Just looking at October to December, Boston normals have generally gone down very slightly in the range of 0.1-0.2. NYC has a larger set of increases (0.3, 0.6, 0.2) and DCA even larger (0.7, 0.9, 0.2). I guess this is what happens when you boot 1972 and 1976 out of the data set. Looking at this month so far, factoring in today's rather warm readings, looks as though we have +(2 to 3) type anomalies on the go, but I won't bother reporting these in detail until at least the 10th and perhaps closer to mid-month. When I do report them, unlike my previous submissions since the reports changed to 81-10 normals, I will present them in contest-friendly format (adjusted then reported). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I've looked up the "old" ("contest" or 1971-2000) and the "new" ("reported" or 1981-2010) normals for the remaining months, so that I can adjust the reported values to contest-friendly values. If I remember, look for these in the Oct, Nov and Dec contest threads at some early stage if you want to factor them into your forecasts. For September (too late now) the contest normals with updated in brackets are: DCA ... 70.5 (71.0) NYC ... 67.5 (68.0) BOS ... 64.7 (64.9) In other words, this month, we should be adding half a degree to the reported anomalies for DCA and NYC, and 0.2 for BOS, to convert them to "contest-friendly" values. (when I say add half a degree, I mean adjust by +0.5 incl negatives). Just looking at Oct, Nov and Dec, Boston normals have all gone up by a mere 0.1 each month in the recent updates. NYC has a larger increase (0.3, 0.6, 0.2) and DCA even larger (0.7, 0.9, 0.2). I guess this is what happens when you boot 1972 and 1976 out of the data set. Looking at this month so far, factoring in today's rather warm readings, looks as though we have +(2 to 3) type anomalies on the go, but I won't bother reporting these in detail until at least the 10th and perhaps closer to mid-month. When I do report them, unlike my previous submissions since the reports changed to 81-10 normals, I will present them in contest-friendly format (adjusted then reported). if you add up and divide the last 30 years (1981-2010) September averaged 68.4 in NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 if you add up and divide the last 30 years (1981-2010) September averaged 68.4 in NYC... Sadly, it is not that simple. 68.0 is the new 30-year normal calculated by the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 This was my source for the 1981-2010 normals: http://ggweather.com/normals/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Sadly, it is not that simple. 68.0 is the new 30-year normal calculated by the NWS. sadly indeed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 After 10 days ... DCA .. 0.0 (-0.5) NYC ... +2.0 (+1.5) BOS ... +0.1 (-0.1) (contest anomalies from 1971-2000 normals, followed by reported station anomalies using 1981-2010 normals ... assumes this part of the month has same adjustment factor as entire month) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Bump....Hey Mallow, can you put up your spreadsheet summary? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 With a cooler spell setting in, these may be the highest anomalies at each station for a while ... after 14 days ... contest anomalies followed by 1981-2010 anomalies ... DCA ... +1.0 ... (+0.5) NYC ... +2.6 ... (+2.1) BOS ... +1.7 ... (+1.5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 updates? or where can I go to see the temperature departures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Sure, here's an update, the cool spell has taken its toll. See my previous posts for the reason for the two reports. after 18 days anomalies were: DCA ... -1.2 ... (-1.7) NYC ... +0.5 ... (0.0) BOS ... +0.3 ... (+0.1) _______________________ If you want a link, go to the main NWS site and then click on "data by state" choose your state of interest and find the link for climate data. The updates appear there daily usually before 0600 Eastern time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Bump....Hey Mallow, can you put up your spreadsheet summary? Thanks! This. ----- The warmer forecasts are looking nice Looks like some solid aboves for all three cities through mid-week next week before the cut-off low pushes through. DCA colder than most stations in the area (by about half a degree or more), but if it finishes positive I can't complain much. Looks like we might have a warm finish with BOS around +2 and NYC around +1.5. DCA probably in the 0 to +0.5 range (using contest normals). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 This. ----- The warmer forecasts are looking nice Looks like some solid aboves for all three cities through mid-week next week before the cut-off low pushes through. DCA colder than most stations in the area (by about half a degree or more), but if it finishes positive I can't complain much. Looks like we might have a warm finish with BOS around +2 and NYC around +1.5. DCA probably in the 0 to +0.5 range (using contest normals). Haven't looked elsewhere, but DCA is definitely going to be helped up by the warm overnight lows with this wet setup. I think I'd be pretty happy if this were my forecast. DCA: +0.8 NYC: +1.2 BOS: +1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 From now to end of month, my reports will be only for "contest" anomalies (see previous posts for background). With the colder spell ended and a return to muted warmth, after 21 days these were: DCA -1.2 NYC +0.2 BOS 0.0 Today looks +5 or so, would expect end of day to be about -1, +0.4, +0.2 Will report again on Monday for 25 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Forecast has turned even warmer as the cut-off stays to the west... around half a degree warmer at all three cities compared to the numbers I estimated back on the 22nd. Forecasts that looked like a low-end finish a week ago now look like top 5's! Shoulder months are fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Update for contest anomalies through 25 days ... DCA -0.3 NYC +1.6 BOS +1.4 today should boost these all by 0.3-0.4. ---------------------- -------------- ----------- For anyone planning their October forecasts, here are the contest "differentials" that will apply to the 81-10 normals. DCA add 0.7, NYC add 0.3, BOS -0.1 (for BOS the 71-00 normals were actually higher by 0.1) Or if you want to go from actual values, these were the 71-00 normals: DCA 58.8 NYC 56.6 BOS 54.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted September 26, 2011 Author Share Posted September 26, 2011 Sorry I haven't gotten around to posting a compiled list or anything, guys. Laziness, video games, and school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Update for contest anomalies through 25 days ... DCA -0.3 NYC +1.6 BOS +1.4 today should boost these all by 0.3-0.4. I need a huge boost in DCA, but the other two I feel pretty good about at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted September 27, 2011 Author Share Posted September 27, 2011 Compiled list of September forecasts: Technically blazess' forecast wast ten minutes late, but I made the executive decision to not dock him this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 It looks like litchfield or Anthony (snow88) could win this one... Actual+forecast: DCA +0.7 NYC +2.6 BOS +2.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 If it weren't for stupid DC I could have won this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 These are approximate due to NWS website chaos over the weekend (I gather it is short term pain for long term gain). I was hoping to get the accurate figures but all links seem broken at the moment. Final figures may be slightly different, this is what I saw for DCA and NYC and estimated for BOS some time around 0300 Saturday before the links closed down. I am going on memory for DCA and NYC, and the estimate for BOS including the daily for the 30th applied to the table through 29th. Not sure why BOS updates later than everyone else in the northeast? 0.7, 2.5, 2.5 (relative to contest 1971-2000 normals) or 0.2, 2.0, 2.3 new style. could be 0.1 out on those, but you can get a pretty good idea of how your forecast came out from those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 If it weren't for stupid DC I could have won this one! BWI and IAD were a full degree above DCA Must've been the random storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Found the final data, as NWS returns to normal service. Contest verification DCA +0.8 NYC +2.5 BOS +2.6 (from 0.3, 2.0, 2.4 1981-2010) __________________________________ Go Philippe !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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