Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II

[earthlight]

The storm is 968mb east of Cape May and then strengthens to 964mb by the time it hits Long Island...very odd

[eduggs]

At 66 hours...landfall in between an area bound by Sandy Hook NJ and the Nassau/Kings county border. Center of lower pressure extends into Nassau Co. Pressure is just over 960mb..looks like 964mb at landfall.

It would actually be quite difficult for a hurricane to make landfall at Sandy Hook. I take this to mean that the lowest contour of pressure touches the NJ coast to the west and the Nassau/Kings border to the NE.

That's a destructive track for NYC.

[eduggs]

The storm is 968mb east of Cape May and then strengthens to 964mb by the time it hits Long Island...very odd

Global models always seem to do this - with almost every tropical cyclone. I take it to mean that the global models are not well suited to predicting cyclone pressures in the tropics, but as the system gains latitude and picks up some extra-tropical/mid-latitude cyclone characteristics, the models begin to catch up to the realistic pressures.

I do not interpret that as a prediction of a strengthening hurricane.

[earthlight]

It would actually be quite difficult for a hurricane to make landfall at Sandy Hook. I take this to mean that the lowest contour of pressure touches the NJ coast to the west and the Nassau/Kings border to the NE.

That's a destructive track for NYC.

Correct. The lowest pressure area bends back towards Sandy Hook but the actual center of the low pressure area is to the north and east of that.

[NJHurricane]

The storm is 968mb east of Cape May and then strengthens to 964mb by the time it hits Long Island...very odd

See Mt holly disco...

INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG 250 MB JET

NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE

EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MODELS

INDICATE THAT THE ORIENTATION OF THIS JET IS SUCH THAT IRENE IS

WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THIS

SCENARIO COULD HELP WITH A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL

AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE.

[SnowGoose69]

See Mt holly disco...

INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG 250 MB JET

NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE

EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MODELS

INDICATE THAT THE ORIENTATION OF THIS JET IS SUCH THAT IRENE IS

WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THIS

SCENARIO COULD HELP WITH A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL

AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE.

Cannot see it happening over sub 80F waters and being THAT close to land. Its not entirely possible it could result in the western side of the storm having some stronger winds but increasing the wind speeds in the core and the system actually undergoing a true warm core intensification is next to impossible once north of the NC/VA border, even in a year with well above normal SSTs.

[earthlight]

Wow. I didn't realize that the Euro actually takes the sfc circulation inland over the Northeast portion of the NJ shore.

This would be an absolute disaster for the south shore of Long Island and New York City. These winds are in knots.

[NJHurricane]

Cannot see it happening over sub 80F waters and being THAT close to land. Its not entirely possible it could result in the western side of the storm having some stronger winds but increasing the wind speeds in the core and the system actually undergoing a true warm core intensification is next to impossible once north of the NC/VA border, even in a year with well above normal SSTs.

was not clear to me if they were implying that it might also be transitioning extratropical at that point...it would be a rare thing indeed, but there are a lot of rare scenarios in play right now

[A-L-E-X]

Cannot see it happening over sub 80F waters and being THAT close to land. Its not entirely possible it could result in the western side of the storm having some stronger winds but increasing the wind speeds in the core and the system actually undergoing a true warm core intensification is next to impossible once north of the NC/VA border, even in a year with well above normal SSTs.

It could really broaden the wind field on both sides of the storm though.

[eduggs]

See Mt holly disco...

INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG 250 MB JET

NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE

EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MODELS

INDICATE THAT THE ORIENTATION OF THIS JET IS SUCH THAT IRENE IS

WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THIS

SCENARIO COULD HELP WITH A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL

AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE.

This is a mid-latitude process. Def a legit possibility. The central pressures of the storm could remain quite deep even as it transitions toward an extra-tropical cyclone... the eye might fill, the rain shield will probably lose its concentricity, and the wind field will spread out. But the upper level conditions could delay an actual increase in central pressure by channeling air aloft away from the cyclone.

[NJHurricane]

Wow. I didn't realize that the Euro actually takes the sfc circulation inland over the Northeast portion of the NJ shore.

This would be an absolute disaster for the south shore of Long Island and New York City. These winds are in knots.

Naso good for the port of Newark/Elizabeth either....and all of the petrochemical industry in the area....ugh

[earthlight]

Naso good for the port of Newark/Elizabeth either....and all of the petrochemical industry in the area....ugh

The reverse surge will be crazy too..the Euro has northwest winds howling at 55 kts just 5 hours later with the surface low sitting over Stamford CT

[earthlight]

By the way...zooming in on the graphics...the MSLP is 944mb directly over Asbury Park NJ at 66 hrs

[NJHurricane]

The reverse surge will be crazy too..the Euro has northwest winds howling at 55 kts just 5 hours later with the surface low sitting over Stamford CT

crazy once in a lifetime scenrios still on the table...its like the tropical version of boxing day....only the stuff that this could leave behind won't just melt away

[SnowGoose69]

That Euro depiction is insane. The storm literally does come NNW onto the NJ Coast, thats basically like the 1903 NJ hurricane.

[earthlight]

good lord

[CAT5ANDREW]

That Euro depiction is insane.  The storm literally does come NNW onto the NJ Coast, thats basically like the 1903 NJ hurricane.

If that happens,the coastline of NYC/LI wll be forever changed.

[NJHurricane]

By the way...zooming in on the graphics...the MSLP is 944mb directly over Asbury Park NJ at 66 hrs

Thank you for the confirmation on that...damn

Goobye Convention Hall

[Hoosier]

for people poo-pooing TS-force winds, we only saw sustained winds into the 50s or so during Isabel in DC (I believe we had a few gusts to around 70) yet damage was significant. Not to structures themselves, but there was heavy damage of trees & very significant power outages. I've noticed the threshold for significant tree damage (in my experience) is around 70mph winds (even just in gusts), and if Irene does take the forecast track there is a very decent chance NYC proper could see hurricane-force gusts.

I'll likely be riding out the storm at my friend's place in Greenpoint (on the surge maps it's one of the islands that would appear if a 4 came in, near McGolrick Park) rather than the UWS as conditions will likely be more observable/severe in Brooklyn. Very excited, although the destruction of Ikea is going to suck.

To add to this...the remnants of Ike only produced a narrow corridor of sustained 50+ mph winds and 75-85 mph gusts in the OV but the tree damage was unbelievable and some areas were without power for 1-2 weeks. If those conditions are repeated in/around NYC with how saturated the ground is, it's gonna be bad.

[NJHurricane]

To add to this...the remnants of Ike only produced a narrow corridor of sustained 50+ mph winds and 75-85 mph gusts in the OV but the tree damage was unbelievable and some areas were without power for 1-2 weeks. If those conditions are repeated in/around NYC with how saturated the ground is, it's gonna be bad.

I hate to think how long we could be down with crews scrambling in every adjacent region dealing the the same thing

[SnowGoose69]

I hate to think how long we could be down with crews scrambling in every adjacent region dealing the the same thing

<br><br>Some places will be out 4-6 weeks if we got a system coming in like the Euro shows. I'm relatively sure of that.  Most would be back within 2 probably.<br>

[A-L-E-X]

crazy once in a lifetime scenrios still on the table...its like the tropical version of boxing day....only the stuff that this could leave behind won't just melt away

The "jackpot" would be in the same zone too-- if you can call it that lol.

[CAT5ANDREW]

Remember how hard it was to travel this past winter with the big piles of snow?? Get ready to have even worse conditions from fallen tree debris.

[A-L-E-X]

Remember how hard it was to travel this past winter with the big piles of snow?? Get ready to have even worse conditions from fallen tree debris.

This question is probably too specific-- but do you have any ideas as to how hard the wind has to be to blow windows in? These windows are fairly new (less than 10 years old) but pretty large (60" or so.)

[JSantanaNYC]

What Category will that be on the Euro? Cat 1 or 2 Hurricane.. sorry for the question

[benfica356]

What Category will that be on the Euro? Cat 1 or 2 Hurricane.. sorry for the question

944 mb= close to a cat 4

[ORH_wxman]

944 mb= close to a cat 4

Nothing even remotely close to that upon landfall on LI.

[JSantanaNYC]

944 mb= close to a cat 4

When it gets to metro area?

[SnowGoose69]

This question is probably too specific-- but do you have any ideas as to how hard the wind has to be to blow windows in? These windows are fairly new (less than 10 years old) but pretty large (60" or so.)

Usually over 80 mph, if its a ground floor house its quite unlikely you'd lose windows in a Cat 1 or even weak Cat 2 storm, especially if you have alot of structures obstructing wind. High rise apartments in Queens and Bklyn facing east or southeast could easily lose windows though.

[jconsor]

It's a good thing the Euro has a marked low bias on pressure. My guess for the landfall pressures:

NC: 947 mb

LI: 960 mb

good lord