Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II

[Cfa]

I posted this in the NE thread too:

Yeah Bloomberg seems set on shutting down mass transit starting Saturday at 8 am as well as evacuating Zone A (whatever that means lol-- but it covers 300,000 people.) He's considering evacuating Zone B also-- which includes many more people. I got a call earlier from Nassau County saying they might not just evacuate the barrier islands (which is a near certainty) but they're thinking of evacuating towns on the main part of the island, that border the bay also. Goldberg said that the winds could easily gust to 80-100 mph anywhere from JFK on eastward.

Whoa, I live on the border of Zone B & Zone C (right next to JFK), I doubt evacuating Zone B is necessary though. I'd be scared to be on one of the barrier islands/peninsulas. This is actually getting a little scary lol.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Here is a close-up of the GFS. It looks to make landfall in eastern Nassau or maybe western Suffolk:

Between Jones Beach and Bayshore according to this run.

WX/PT

[earthlight]

The GFS is literally the same distance away from the NJ shore as the 18z run..the effects are likely the same. Considering everyone was calling the 18z GFS a huge hit, I think it's time we put the micro analyzing to rest. Still a ton of rain, wind, and surge...big impacts.

[TheTrials]

If you blend the current 00z's globals that are out (nogaps, gfs, ukmet), you pretty much get a western LI landfall.

[Neblizzard]

The GFS is literally the same distance away from the NJ shore as the 18z run..the effects are likely the same. Considering everyone was calling the 18z GFS a huge hit, I think it's time we put the micro analyzing to rest. Still a ton of rain, wind, and surge...big impacts.

I agree, this is actually a good track for people in NJ and NYC rooting for a big hit in terms of prolific rainfall totals. If it moved over the City or West...the rainfall amounts would likely be cut in half but the surge would be worse.

[A-L-E-X]

Would probably spare the NJ coast and NYC the "Worst" in terms of tidal flooding, but with a new moon and strong onshore winds with the approach of Irene, coastal flooding would still be a major issue. The rainfall is another issue, with a track like that....NYC west would get deluged while E LI sees much lesser amounts...

Something to remember with this vs Floyd-- with Floyd we had been dry all summer. With this, well we've already had over a foot of rain in the past 10 days. An inch of rain will cause flash flooding-- a foot of rain will create its own "surge"

[eduggs]

The GFS is literally the same distance away from the NJ shore as the 18z run..the effects are likely the same. Considering everyone was calling the 18z GFS a huge hit, I think it's time we put the micro analyzing to rest. Still a ton of rain, wind, and surge...big impacts.

Agreed. The past two runs of the GFS (and almost every other model) have to be considered huge hits for the entire tri-state area. But just to be clear - and for reference to past and future model runs - neither run had a landfall anywhere between NC and LI. Even the 12z just scraped the delmarva and the NJ coasts. If the center actually intersects the NJ coastline at any point, I think we'll have a very serious situation on our hands. We might even if it doesn't. But right now that's my measuring stick for something approaching a worst case scenario for NJ and NYC.

[A-L-E-X]

Whoa, I live on the border of Zone B & Zone C (right next to JFK), I doubt evacuating Zone B is necessary though. I'd be scared to be on one of the barrier islands/peninsulas. This is actually getting a little scary lol.

Yeah, I think evacuating Zone A will be hard enough lol. How do they define these zones anyway? Is Zone A = Cat 1 surge? Zone B = Cat 2 surge Zone C = Cat 3 surge Zone D = Cat 4 surge ? We have four cats for surges on Long Island too, although I dont know why we have a Cat 4 surge, the chances of having a Cat 4 hit here are probably less likely than getting demolished by an asteroid lol. Or maybe a Cat 4 surge isn't the same as a Cat 4 hurricane, since we could easily see a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane cause higher surges than their rating would imply depending on size and what their initial strength was, as well as the geography of the coastline.

[A-L-E-X]

Yeah, I think evacuating Zone A will be hard enough lol. How do they define these zones anyway? Is Zone A = Cat 1 surge? Zone B = Cat 2 surge Zone C = Cat 3 surge Zone D = Cat 4 surge ? We have four cats for surges on Long Island too, although I dont know why we have a Cat 4 surge, the chances of having a Cat 4 hit here are probably less likely than getting demolished by an asteroid lol. Or maybe a Cat 4 surge isn't the same as a Cat 4 hurricane, since we could easily see a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane cause higher surges than their rating would imply depending on size and what their initial strength was, as well as the geography of the coastline.

If anyone could answer the above I would appreciate it-- it's been bugging me all day lol. The other question I had was how do they define what Cat Zone one is in-- is it all dependent on elevation above sea level ? So Cat 1 Zone = 3-5 feet above sea level Cat 2 Zone 5-9 feet above sea level Cat 3 Zone = 9-12 feet above sea level Cat 4 Zone = 13-18 feet above sea level ?

[SACRUS]

Yeah, I think evacuating Zone A will be hard enough lol. How do they define these zones anyway? Is Zone A = Cat 1 surge? Zone B = Cat 2 surge Zone C = Cat 3 surge Zone D = Cat 4 surge ? We have four cats for surges on Long Island too, although I dont know why we have a Cat 4 surge, the chances of having a Cat 4 hit here are probably less likely than getting demolished by an asteroid lol. Or maybe a Cat 4 surge isn't the same as a Cat 4 hurricane, since we could easily see a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane cause higher surges than their rating would imply depending on size and what their initial strength was, as well as the geography of the coastline.

http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hurricane_map_english.pdf

[NorthNJwx]

Agreed. The past two runs of the GFS (and almost every other model) have to be considered huge hits for the entire tri-state area. But just to be clear - and for reference to past and future model runs - neither run had a landfall anywhere between NC and LI. Even the 12z just scraped the delmarva and the NJ coasts. If the center actually intersects the NJ coastline at any point, I think we'll have a very serious situation on our hands. We might even if it doesn't. But right now that's my measuring stick for something approaching a worst case scenario for NJ and NYC.

As much as we all want to see an intense storm and be able to write Irene into our history books, I have to say that the slightly inland scenario is a bit too serious for me. The damage potential for coastal NJ and NYC is just way more than I'd ever want to see, even if it's a weak Cat 1. The bottom line is that this will be a significant and major storm for the area, even if it's not THE big one. I have a feeling most here would agree, when given thought to the matter, that THE big one is something we don't actually want to see.

With the Euro/UKMET/NOGAPS being near the coast/just inland and the GFS/NAM landfalling on LI, western LI seems to be a very reasonable landfall spot for this storm. Based on what I've read, Belle 1976 made landfall somewhere in that Queens/Nassau vicinity, a bit west of Gloria. While the overall track of Belle was way different than Irene, that could be a potential landfall zone barring significant modeling shifts. So NYC could quite easily get into whatever is left of the NW/W eyewall, with conditions that would be quite intense even if just west of the center.

[A-L-E-X]

As much as we all want to see an intense storm and be able to write Irene into our history books, I have to say that the slightly inland scenario is a bit too serious for me. The damage potential for coastal NJ and NYC is just way more than I'd ever want to see, even if it's a weak Cat 1. The bottom line is that this will be a significant and major storm for the area, even if it's not THE big one. I have a feeling most here would agree, when given thought to the matter, that THE big one is something we don't actually want to see.

With the Euro/UKMET/NOGAPS being near the coast/just inland and the GFS/NAM landfalling on LI, western LI seems to be a very reasonable landfall spot for this storm. Based on what I've read, Belle 1976 made landfall somewhere in that Queens/Nassau vicinity, a bit west of Gloria. While the overall track of Belle was way different than Irene, that could be a potential landfall zone barring significant modeling shifts. So NYC could quite easily get into whatever is left of the NW/W eyewall, with conditions that would be quite intense even if just west of the center.

Yeah, granted that the storm is completely different and so is the topography, but New Orleans was just to the west of Katrina's eye also. Katrina was not their worst case scenario either.

[JBG]

Yeah, I think evacuating Zone A will be hard enough lol. How do they define these zones anyway? Is Zone A = Cat 1 surge?

Zone A roughly corresponds to flooding experience from the 1821 hurricane. Not sure if that is the basis but being a student of history I suspect it is.

[TheTrials]

ggem

[lakeeffectkid383]

http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hurricane_map_english.pdf

Even with Irene making landfall as a cat one. Surge would be more on the cat 2 scale due to the shear size of the system. If i were bloomberg id evacuate zones A And B

[NorthNJwx]

Yeah, granted that the storm is completely different and so is the topography, but New Orleans was just to the west of Katrina's eye also. Katrina was not their worst case scenario either.

Good point. While the east side of a TC is going to be stronger, it doesn't mean the west side has nothing. In fact, it's possible that better mixing will help to transfer gusts more efficiently in the N/NW/W flow on the west side of Irene at our latitude, so the difference may not be as large as some think.

[SACRUS]

need the 66 hour panel but this looks a hair east of nyc<div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div> 

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[coastalplainsnowman]

This is not a knock or criticism - just a layman's question. How do we square the discussion here which makes hurricane conditions sound like a done deal for at least some parts of long island, with the Upton web page showing only 'Tropical Storm Conditions Possible'? It's not as if they are not using 'Hurricane Conditions Possible', because they do show that for southern NJ. Tropical Storm Conditions Possible reads to me as 'Hurricane condtions not really possible.'

[Eduardo]

This is not a knock or criticism - just a layman's question. How do we square the discussion here which makes hurricane conditions sound like a done deal for at least some parts of long island, with the Upton web page showing only 'Tropical Storm Conditions Possible'? It's not as if they are not using 'Hurricane Conditions Possible', because they do show that for southern NJ. Tropical Storm Conditions Possible reads to me as 'Hurricane condtions not really possible.'

Where are you located? My locale has "Hurricane Conditions Possible" for Sunday.

[LocoAko]

This is not a knock or criticism - just a layman's question. How do we square the discussion here which makes hurricane conditions sound like a done deal for at least some parts of long island, with the Upton web page showing only 'Tropical Storm Conditions Possible'? It's not as if they are not using 'Hurricane Conditions Possible', because they do show that for southern NJ. Tropical Storm Conditions Possible reads to me as 'Hurricane condtions not really possible.'

I suspect it will change in the coming days, but keep in mind that even sustained winds of 70MPH with gusts of 80-100MPH is considered TS conditions based on sustained wind speeds. I am not actually sure many places will see sustained hurricane wind speeds... we will see. That doesn't take away from the damage potential, of course, since sustained 70MPH winds are no laughing matter. JMO.

[BL03]

This is not a knock or criticism - just a layman's question. How do we square the discussion here which makes hurricane conditions sound like a done deal for at least some parts of long island, with the Upton web page showing only 'Tropical Storm Conditions Possible'? It's not as if they are not using 'Hurricane Conditions Possible', because they do show that for southern NJ. Tropical Storm Conditions Possible reads to me as 'Hurricane condtions not really possible.'

Honestly if I lived in LI (any part) I would be worried and excited for some hurricane conditions! The strongest winds are in the NE quad which LI is very likely to be in, remember this. Also if Irene rides up the coast like the models are showing tonight it will feed off the warm waters and the E side will be more organized simply due to it being over water vs. land. Still very hard to tell where that NE quad will hit but it's more likely to hit LI than Newark NJ.

my 2 cents.

[anemone]

Does NYC set up evacuation centers on the highest land, or do they actually expect people to leave town? If public transportation stops midday Saturday, that will essentially trap a huge percentage of the population.

[SnowGoose69]

Honestly if I lived in LI (any part) I would be worried and excited for some hurricane conditions! The strongest winds are in the NE quad which LI is very likely to be in, remember this. Also if Irene rides up the coast like the models are showing tonight it will feed off the warm waters and the E side will be more organized simply due to it being over water vs. land. Still very hard to tell where that NE quad will hit but it's more likely to hit LI than Newark NJ.

my 2 cents.

What worries me is some of the friends I know in houses just surrounded by trees. I figure to an extent if these trees made it through Gloria, Dec 92, and last year's mega wind event they might make it through this too but if it somehow gets here as a 90-95 mph storm its gonna get ugly east of the center. There would likely be houses collapsing due to wind strength alone in that case.

[NorthNJwx]

I suspect it will change in the coming days, but keep in mind that even sustained winds of 70MPH with gusts of 80-100MPH is considered TS conditions based on sustained wind speeds. I am not actually sure many places will see sustained hurricane wind speeds... we will see. That doesn't take away from the damage potential, of course, since sustained 70MPH winds are no laughing matter. JMO.

Exactly. Even with a high-end Cat 1 - say, 90 mph - very few spots on-land beyond exposed beachfronts will see true hurricane conditions. Even well-exposed areas may come up short. But that certainly doesn't mean the storm isn't powerful or damaging; hurricane force sustained winds are absolutely not necessary for major damage.

The MTA has a reason for shutting down operations once sustained winds hit 39 mph. People don't realize it, but things start getting very dicey once sustained winds start climbing to TS/Gale force and above. A sustained wind of 50 or 60 mph can cause some serious damage. For reference, sustained winds on 3/13/10 in coastal NJ and NY peaked around/just under 50 mph at the most exposed airports.

[Cfa]

Does NYC set up evacuation centers on the highest land, or do they actually expect people to leave town? If public transportation stops midday Saturday, that will essentially trap a huge percentage of the population.

Yes, there's places set up that are outside of all storm surge zones.

Its hard to believe sustained winds weren't even at 50 mph on 3/13/10, that was easily the worst/scariest storm I've ever been in, I remember being trapped on the GWB literally seconds after they closed it, the wind was lifting up the front of the car and I was staring at the black choppy Hudson River. Never again. Ever.

[patrick05]

to be honest i'm actually a little bit excited on this one... this is my first "hurricane" and my first tropical system since a typhoon passed near my town back in Philippines 5 years ago...

i live near KISP so based on the latest track, we're supposed to see some of the strongest winds right??? still worried due to the trees near our house.. do you think Steve Levy will issued mandatory evacuations for inland residents tomorrow??

[earthlight]

Euro is still a monster and on the west side of the guidance at 60 hrs...the surface low is maybe 5 miles east of Lewes Delaware and extends to over Cape May NJ

[Nikolai]

for people poo-pooing TS-force winds, we only saw sustained winds into the 50s or so during Isabel in DC (I believe we had a few gusts to around 70) yet damage was significant. Not to structures themselves, but there was heavy damage of trees & very significant power outages. I've noticed the threshold for significant tree damage (in my experience) is around 70mph winds (even just in gusts), and if Irene does take the forecast track there is a very decent chance NYC proper could see hurricane-force gusts.

I'll likely be riding out the storm at my friend's place in Greenpoint (on the surge maps it's one of the islands that would appear if a 4 came in, near McGolrick Park) rather than the UWS as conditions will likely be more observable/severe in Brooklyn. Very excited, although the destruction of Ikea is going to suck.

[earthlight]

It's also faster like the other guidance...but still west. Has big rains and wind in here by 12z Sunday

[earthlight]

At 66 hours...landfall in between an area bound by Sandy Hook NJ and the Nassau/Kings county border. Center of lower pressure extends into Nassau Co. Pressure is just over 960mb..looks like 964mb at landfall.