Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 You're about to see about as significant a W ATL, non-Car hurricane as we've had in modern times. Enjoy the view, and let's hope the GFS is way off base and the Euro proves it. Good call on the NY Harbor landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 00z misses Manhattan to the east. Makes Landfall in Brooklyn and shoots in towards Conn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Wow-this really could come in around high tide Sunday morning (8am or so). That could be horrible for many locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Good call on the NY Harbor landfall. "Bad" call, we're getting too close in time to see these types of solutions, they depict a truly devastating scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFS is central LI. Good luck NYC handling 12" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Landfall in Suffolk county: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFS looks about 30 miles west of the NAM as Irene approaches eastern LI. It's also about 6 hours slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 00z misses Manhattan to the east. Makes Landfall in Brooklyn and shoots in towards Conn. Microanalyzing like this seems a bit unnecessary and perhaps disingenuous. Considering the eye is 30 mi wide right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 00z misses Manhattan to the east. Makes Landfall in Brooklyn and shoots in towards Conn. It does not make landfall in Brooklyn, it skirts the Jersey Coast and makes Landfall in Central LI, very similiar to Hurricane Gloria 1985 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFS is central LI. Good luck NYC handling 12" of rain. How would winds be in NYC area still hurricane force even though west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Wow-this really could come in around high tide Sunday morning (8am or so). That could be horrible for many locales. Exactlty my thought. High Tide at the Battery on Sunday is 8:51AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The GFS track is more normal, very close to Gloria, maybe slightly east of Belle and west of Carol. The track into the Hudson Valley was absurd. I'm now feeling better about the Eastern LI landfall call though the Euro is bound to do something weird like drive it into Scranton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 00z misses Manhattan to the east. Makes Landfall in Brooklyn and shoots in towards Conn. Looks about 50 miles east of Brooklyn to me. That's pretty close for a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 central LI...not the best graphic, but here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Microanalyzing like this seems a bit unnecessary and perhaps disingenuous. Considering the eye is 30 mi wide right now... Microanalyzation comes with the territory I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFS is central LI. Good luck NYC handling 12" of rain. yup. A hurricane landfalling on central LI then slamming into New England is extreme and potentially devastating. As well as epic rains for everyone on the western side. Models may sway back and forth but a central LI landfall is what i have been thinking for a while now. Nothing to sneeze at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFS is central LI. Good luck NYC handling 12" of rain. 13.4 to be exact. That would be one awsome KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks about 50 miles east of Brooklyn to me. That's pretty close for a hurricane. especially when you live 30 miles east of bk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 How would winds be in NYC area still hurricane force even though west? Well that's gonna depend on strength and exact track. I wouldn't speculate yet, but that track would give areas especially east of Manhattan some good winds. IF it happened. Honestly, the freshwater flooding seems big with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Remember guys that this hurricane with its cloud shield, wind field & spiral rain bands is now nearly 300 miles wide. from the 11pm advisory: Irene is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extendoutward up to 80 miles...130 km...from the center...and tropicalstorm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles...465 km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Remember guys that this hurricane with its cloud shield, wind field & spiral rain bands is now nearly 300 miles wide. from the 11pm advisory: Irene is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extendoutward up to 80 miles...130 km...from the center...and tropicalstorm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles...465 km. Nearly 600 miles wide for TFW, and the tick east of Brooklyn means nothing as it occurs in one frame of the model in question. I simply would prepare, and leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Here is a close-up of the GFS. It looks to make landfall in eastern Nassau or maybe western Suffolk: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFS is central LI. Good luck NYC handling 12" of rain. I posted this in the NE thread too: Yeah Bloomberg seems set on shutting down mass transit starting Saturday at 8 am as well as evacuating Zone A (whatever that means lol-- but it covers 300,000 people.) He's considering evacuating Zone B also-- which includes many more people. I got a call earlier from Nassau County saying they might not just evacuate the barrier islands (which is a near certainty) but they're thinking of evacuating towns on the main part of the island, that border the bay also. Goldberg said that the winds could easily gust to 80-100 mph anywhere from JFK on eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Here is a close-up of the GFS. It looks to make landfall in eastern Nassau or maybe western Suffolk: Also it has some time to funnel water down the long Iland sound. Not mouch with the speed it's moving though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Nearly 600 miles wide for TFW, and the tick east of Brooklyn means nothing as it occurs in one frame of the model in question. I simply would prepare, and leave it at that. and a tick off the coast would usually mean less weakening as it races northeastward towards the Big Apple and Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Remember guys that this hurricane with its cloud shield, wind field & spiral rain bands is now nearly 300 miles wide. from the 11pm advisory: Irene is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extendoutward up to 80 miles...130 km...from the center...and tropicalstorm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles...465 km. Yeah, the road map for this hurricane should be 1944 and Ike..... 1944 had a sizeable storm surge into NJ even though it was WELL east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Here is a close-up of the GFS. It looks to make landfall in eastern Nassau or maybe western Suffolk: Would probably spare the NJ coast and NYC the "Worst" in terms of tidal flooding, but with a new moon and strong onshore winds with the approach of Irene, coastal flooding would still be a major issue. The rainfall is another issue, with a track like that....NYC west would get deluged while E LI sees much lesser amounts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I hope this doesn't end up like March 2001 where Bloomberg shuts the city down and we just get some gusty winds and scattered tropical downpours haha. I watched his conference twice and he seems set on shutting down mass transport and evacuating low lying areas of the city. The flooding issue could overshadow the lack of wind impacts if the storm went into eastern Suffolk. So in the end I think most people would feel it was the correct decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Here is the 00Z ukmet., Sorry, have to post the link as its a loop. Essentially looks to be spot on to its 12z run and goes up just west of NYC. http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2011082600®ION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=500&F1=none&F2=none&C2=tmpc&VEC=none&C1=pmsl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I hope this doesn't end up like March 2001 where Bloomberg shuts the city down and we just get some gusty winds and scattered tropical downpours haha. I watched his conference twice and he seems set on shutting down mass transport and evacuating low lying areas of the city. He has to err on the side of caution. Most people will breath a sigh of relief if we are spared the worst of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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