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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II


earthlight

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GFS is central LI. Good luck NYC handling 12" of rain.

yup. A hurricane landfalling on central LI then slamming into New England is extreme and potentially devastating. As well as epic rains for everyone on the western side. Models may sway back and forth but a central LI landfall is what i have been thinking for a while now. Nothing to sneeze at

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How would winds be in NYC area still hurricane force even though west?

Well that's gonna depend on strength and exact track. I wouldn't speculate yet, but that track would give areas especially east of Manhattan some good winds. IF it happened. Honestly, the freshwater flooding seems big with this.

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Remember guys that this hurricane with its cloud shield, wind field & spiral rain bands is now nearly 300 miles wide.

from the 11pm advisory:

Irene is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extendoutward up to 80 miles...130 km...from the center...and tropicalstorm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles...465 km.

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Remember guys that this hurricane with its cloud shield, wind field & spiral rain bands is now nearly 300 miles wide.

from the 11pm advisory:

Irene is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extendoutward up to 80 miles...130 km...from the center...and tropicalstorm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles...465 km.

Nearly 600 miles wide for TFW, and the tick east of Brooklyn means nothing as it occurs in one frame of the model in question. I simply would prepare, and leave it at that.

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GFS is central LI. Good luck NYC handling 12" of rain.

I posted this in the NE thread too:

Yeah Bloomberg seems set on shutting down mass transit starting Saturday at 8 am as well as evacuating Zone A (whatever that means lol-- but it covers 300,000 people.) He's considering evacuating Zone B also-- which includes many more people. I got a call earlier from Nassau County saying they might not just evacuate the barrier islands (which is a near certainty) but they're thinking of evacuating towns on the main part of the island, that border the bay also. Goldberg said that the winds could easily gust to 80-100 mph anywhere from JFK on eastward.

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Nearly 600 miles wide for TFW, and the tick east of Brooklyn means nothing as it occurs in one frame of the model in question. I simply would prepare, and leave it at that.

and a tick off the coast would usually mean less weakening as it races northeastward towards the Big Apple and Long Island.

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Remember guys that this hurricane with its cloud shield, wind field & spiral rain bands is now nearly 300 miles wide.

from the 11pm advisory:

Irene is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extendoutward up to 80 miles...130 km...from the center...and tropicalstorm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles...465 km.

Yeah, the road map for this hurricane should be 1944 and Ike..... 1944 had a sizeable storm surge into NJ even though it was WELL east.

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Here is a close-up of the GFS. It looks to make landfall in eastern Nassau or maybe western Suffolk:

post-73-0-17748900-1314332503.jpg

Would probably spare the NJ coast and NYC the "Worst" in terms of tidal flooding, but with a new moon and strong onshore winds with the approach of Irene, coastal flooding would still be a major issue. The rainfall is another issue, with a track like that....NYC west would get deluged while E LI sees much lesser amounts...

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I hope this doesn't end up like March 2001 where Bloomberg shuts the city down and we just get some gusty winds and scattered tropical downpours haha. I watched his conference twice and he seems set on shutting down mass transport and evacuating low lying areas of the city.

The flooding issue could overshadow the lack of wind impacts if the storm went into eastern Suffolk. So in the end I think most people would feel it was the correct decision.

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I hope this doesn't end up like March 2001 where Bloomberg shuts the city down and we just get some gusty winds and scattered tropical downpours haha. I watched his conference twice and he seems set on shutting down mass transport and evacuating low lying areas of the city.

He has to err on the side of caution. Most people will breath a sigh of relief if we are spared the worst of it.

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