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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II


earthlight

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Some mets on the main forum are saying this is a CAT 4 by 8AM

IR presentation rapidly improving and per the latest winds are responding in the NE eyewall

given what we're seeing right now, this is a definite possibility. 942mb, could very well see 930s by 2 or 5am...

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Some mets on the main forum are saying this is a CAT 4 by 8AM

IR presentation rapidly improving and per the latest winds are responding in the NE eyewall

This is a bad spot for Irene to be getting a 2nd wind. It won't have much of a chance to weaken before NC and could hit as a full fledged Cat 3 or maybe outside chance at a 4. The Gulf Stream runs right by them and shear won't be a huge inhibitor like it normally is at that latitude.

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I'd agree-the odds of a central/eastern LI landfall have definitely increased tonight. Even now the hurricane seems to be just east of NHC's track. Maybe a few more wobbles left still in her, but for the most part Irene's headed due north now

as well as the odds of a complete miss to the SE of LI all together....these trends are not just model outputs anymore we see Irene making some real changes over the past 2 hrs.

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This is a bad spot for Irene to be getting a 2nd wind. It won't have much of a chance to weaken before NC and could hit as a full fledged Cat 3 or maybe outside chance at a 4. The Gulf Stream runs right by them and shear won't be a huge inhibitor like it normally is at that latitude.

Irene is the best its looked since its was really getting going NW of PR.

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Whether the eye crosses over somewhere in Suffolk County or NYC directly won't matter a tremendous amount. The hurricane is so large and effects felt over such a wide area that there will be a massive pileup of water, high enough winds to damage trees/power lines, and huge rainfall amounts unless the hurricane does something crazy and veers NE which no model even comes close to. There is still the potential for a ton of damage regardless. Just going by the size of the storm and the amount of water that must be piling up, someone is going to get demolished, weakening or not. Remember Katrina packing a surge 1-2 categories above what it was wind wise? I can imagine someone around or east of the track getting a normally Cat 3 sized surge because of the storm's size and amount of water piled up. Even if I'm on the left side of the storm by a fair amount, I'm still quite sure much of the south shore will be inundated at one point or another. Donna went well east of here and placed Long Beach under water. The new moon certainly doesn't help either.

Agreed, and it can certainly be said that a NE wind will put many parts of the city underwater. 1938, 1944 and Donna all had large parts of the city under water. It's a fallacy to think that damage can't be severe on the west side of the storm. We have plenty of precedent for this.

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Now I realize why I never read this forum. At any rate, 00z GFS is right into Queens...actually maybe even Brooklyn/NY Harbor, hard to tell with the resolution I'm looking at.

Where do you have the GFS out that far? Link please

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as well as the odds of a complete miss to the SE of LI all together....these trends are not just model outputs anymore we see Irene making some real changes over the past 2 hrs.

we're still 2-3 days away, these "changes" are insignificant.

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Agreed, and it can certainly be said that a NE wind will put many parts of the city underwater. 1938, 1944 and Donna all had large parts of the city under water. It's a fallacy to think that damage can't be severe on the west side of the storm. We have plenty of precedent for this.

The storm surge is somewhat like a tsunami in a number of respects. The wind piles the water up, and it has to go somewhere. It frightens me right now seeing the hurricane ramping up, and its sheer size. It's really piling water up, and will carry it all the way up the coast. The coast acts as a funnel up in this area, and the water will ram right into it. For sure, the surge will be worse east of the center, but west will have problems too. This is one of the most surge prone areas on the whole East Coast. The waves before the storm act to set up the surge and pile water in themselves. I really wonder if some people in eastern LI or NE will experience a normally cat 3 surge from just a maybe 80-90mph hurricane. With Katrina this effect is well documented.

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I disagree Alex, everything is importing from here on in.

If it's something minor, like a wobble, you don't know if they might not cancel out. If it's a true directional change, you need to track it over 12-24 hours before being able to say that with any certainty.

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If it's something minor, like a wobble, you don't know if they might not cancel out. If it's a true directional change, you need to track it over 12-24 hours before being able to say that with any certainty.

I think by morning we'll have a pretty good idea on what Irene plans on doing when she approaches the area.

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If it's something minor, like a wobble, you don't know if they might not cancel out. If it's a true directional change, you need to track it over 12-24 hours before being able to say that with any certainty.

I think the bigger issue here is the contraction of the wind field as the storm decreases in size. That will simply minimize the wind impact inland- although NYC/east/south should still be hit hard.

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