IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Is this considered a pin hole eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Some mets on the main forum are saying this is a CAT 4 by 8AM IR presentation rapidly improving and per the latest winds are responding in the NE eyewall given what we're seeing right now, this is a definite possibility. 942mb, could very well see 930s by 2 or 5am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 hr 42 00z gfs has it over costal Nc....ontop of the outer banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Some mets on the main forum are saying this is a CAT 4 by 8AM IR presentation rapidly improving and per the latest winds are responding in the NE eyewall This is a bad spot for Irene to be getting a 2nd wind. It won't have much of a chance to weaken before NC and could hit as a full fledged Cat 3 or maybe outside chance at a 4. The Gulf Stream runs right by them and shear won't be a huge inhibitor like it normally is at that latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think the east wobble is exaggerated due to the changes the eyewall is going under... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'd agree-the odds of a central/eastern LI landfall have definitely increased tonight. Even now the hurricane seems to be just east of NHC's track. Maybe a few more wobbles left still in her, but for the most part Irene's headed due north now as well as the odds of a complete miss to the SE of LI all together....these trends are not just model outputs anymore we see Irene making some real changes over the past 2 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Now I realize why I never read this forum. At any rate, 00z GFS is right into Queens...actually maybe even Brooklyn/NY Harbor, hard to tell with the resolution I'm looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 hr 48 kissing newport news, va. hr 51 brushing the delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is a bad spot for Irene to be getting a 2nd wind. It won't have much of a chance to weaken before NC and could hit as a full fledged Cat 3 or maybe outside chance at a 4. The Gulf Stream runs right by them and shear won't be a huge inhibitor like it normally is at that latitude. Irene is the best its looked since its was really getting going NW of PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Whether the eye crosses over somewhere in Suffolk County or NYC directly won't matter a tremendous amount. The hurricane is so large and effects felt over such a wide area that there will be a massive pileup of water, high enough winds to damage trees/power lines, and huge rainfall amounts unless the hurricane does something crazy and veers NE which no model even comes close to. There is still the potential for a ton of damage regardless. Just going by the size of the storm and the amount of water that must be piling up, someone is going to get demolished, weakening or not. Remember Katrina packing a surge 1-2 categories above what it was wind wise? I can imagine someone around or east of the track getting a normally Cat 3 sized surge because of the storm's size and amount of water piled up. Even if I'm on the left side of the storm by a fair amount, I'm still quite sure much of the south shore will be inundated at one point or another. Donna went well east of here and placed Long Beach under water. The new moon certainly doesn't help either. Agreed, and it can certainly be said that a NE wind will put many parts of the city underwater. 1938, 1944 and Donna all had large parts of the city under water. It's a fallacy to think that damage can't be severe on the west side of the storm. We have plenty of precedent for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Now I realize why I never read this forum. At any rate, 00z GFS is right into Queens...actually maybe even Brooklyn/NY Harbor, hard to tell with the resolution I'm looking at. Where do you have the GFS out that far? Link please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 given what we're seeing right now, this is a definite possibility. 942mb, could very well see 930s by 2 or 5am... AF put her below 938 about 2 hours ago. Sorry, edit, timestamp screwed with me, actually about 1.25 hours ago.<br> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 as well as the odds of a complete miss to the SE of LI all together....these trends are not just model outputs anymore we see Irene making some real changes over the past 2 hrs. we're still 2-3 days away, these "changes" are insignificant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Irene now down to 937.8mb http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_hd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Irene is gonna mess with 50 million people approximately and a good percentage of the mess will be disruptive and probably historic as many of her keen have been she's getting pissed off again see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 we're still 2-3 days away, these "changes" are insignificant. I disagree Alex, everything is importing from here on in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 As john notes its a bit faster.....but through 54 hrs the track seems the same hr 57 brushing acy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 00z basically has Irene tracing an outline of the US East Coast. It jogs west,east, west, east, west, eeeeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Agreed, and it can certainly be said that a NE wind will put many parts of the city underwater. 1938, 1944 and Donna all had large parts of the city under water. It's a fallacy to think that damage can't be severe on the west side of the storm. We have plenty of precedent for this. The storm surge is somewhat like a tsunami in a number of respects. The wind piles the water up, and it has to go somewhere. It frightens me right now seeing the hurricane ramping up, and its sheer size. It's really piling water up, and will carry it all the way up the coast. The coast acts as a funnel up in this area, and the water will ram right into it. For sure, the surge will be worse east of the center, but west will have problems too. This is one of the most surge prone areas on the whole East Coast. The waves before the storm act to set up the surge and pile water in themselves. I really wonder if some people in eastern LI or NE will experience a normally cat 3 surge from just a maybe 80-90mph hurricane. With Katrina this effect is well documented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The only real changes with the GFS are that the storm gets here 6 hours sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Changes between the 0z and 18z GFS through 48 hours don't look significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I disagree Alex, everything is importing from here on in. If it's something minor, like a wobble, you don't know if they might not cancel out. If it's a true directional change, you need to track it over 12-24 hours before being able to say that with any certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I disagree Alex, everything is importing from here on in. I agree with alex cause just as fast as you saw changes in 2hrs tonight you can tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 hr 63 going right into ct........makes landfall in central LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If it's something minor, like a wobble, you don't know if they might not cancel out. If it's a true directional change, you need to track it over 12-24 hours before being able to say that with any certainty. I think by morning we'll have a pretty good idea on what Irene plans on doing when she approaches the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Changes between the 0z and 18z GFS through 48 hours don't look significant. Im out to hr 63..........the track is the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 You're about to see about as significant a W ATL, non-Car hurricane as we've had in modern times. Enjoy the view, and let's hope the GFS is way off base and the Euro proves it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If it's something minor, like a wobble, you don't know if they might not cancel out. If it's a true directional change, you need to track it over 12-24 hours before being able to say that with any certainty. I think the bigger issue here is the contraction of the wind field as the storm decreases in size. That will simply minimize the wind impact inland- although NYC/east/south should still be hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The GFS consistency since everything trended west has been amazing, this is close to game....set..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Can someone explain the tornado threat to me with these storms and also if it does make landfall central long island wouldn't the eye be wide enough to affect Brooklyn queens etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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