NickD2011 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 New York City is big and evacuations take time. You can't wait until *NOW* to order evacuations just to see if its actually gonna be strong or not. Fortunately the public trusts the meteorologists more now when they predict big storms. Every big threat this winter and last winter materialized as forecast and really shut down the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I dont understand how almost all models did great on track.. but so bad on intensity..maybe we are not seeing something they do? maybe it will become Cat 2 again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm willing to bet that the west side of the storm will blow up once it moves past the outer banks I'm with you. It's going to fill in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Even looking at surface obs, there are only 4 sites near the coast reporting TS winds, even though the wind radius is supposed to be TS force out to near Raleigh. Look at all that dry air close to the eyewall! This always happens. Winds are NEVER as high over land as over water. The exact same structure over water as over land will result in a significant percentage reduction in wind speed over land, just due to friction. If I was smart I'd have some idea what that percentage is, but its somewhere around 20-30% I *think* (though that depends on terrain and surface objects). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm willing to bet that the west side of the storm will blow up once it moves past the outer banks You may see an explosion of cloud tops in that sector with increased areas of precip, alot like what we witnessed happen during the January winter storm this year where we had the 2nd round night cap with the TSSN but in reality the core of the system is not likely to recover...it may look nastier on satellite16 hours from now but the maximum sustained winds near the center from here on in would be highly unlikely to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 New York City is big and evacuations take time. You can't wait until *NOW* to order evacuations just to see if its actually gonna be strong or not. Yeah, I bet you remember some of the tragedies that happened surrounding the evacuations of Houston just before Rita. And Rita never even hit there directly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I dont understand how almost all models did great on track.. but so bad on intensity..maybe we are not seeing something they do? maybe it will become Cat 2 again? Another thing that essentially *always* happens. Day ending in y. As it happens, many aren't that far off with the pressure, just the wind speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This always happens. Winds are NEVER as high over land as over water. The exact same structure over water as over land will result in a significant percentage reduction in wind speed over land, just due to friction. If I was smart I'd have some idea what that percentage is, but its somewhere around 20-30% I *think* (though that depends on terrain and surface objects). Way back on Eastern you and I were talking about this and I had looked it up then. It's close to 30%-- 28% if memory serves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 LOL @ the NHC guy on FoxNews live right now, man is he grasping at straws, pounding the heavy rain idea but awfully silent on the wind issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Another thing that essentially *always* happens. Day ending in y. As it happens, many aren't that far off with the pressure, just the wind speed. Intensity forecasting is still in its infancy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 You may see an explosion of cloud tops in that sector with increased areas of precip, alot like what we witnessed happen during the January winter storm this year where we had the 2nd round night cap with the TSSN but in reality the core of the system is not likely to recover...it may look nastier on satellite16 hours from now but the maximum sustained winds near the center from here on in would be highly unlikely to increase. I think this "west side explosion" some are thinking of may well occur, as the storm interacts with land more the increased friction would result in more convergence at the surface which has only one place to go... but of course, that means nothing as far as intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Way back on Eastern you and I were talking about this and I had looked it up then. It's close to 30%-- 28% if memory serves. Your memory serves better than mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Alex....in regards to the intensity forecasts I always tell people hurricane intensity forecasts are on par with everyday regular weather forecast accuracy and skill level from the 1980s and have been stuck there now for some time. One day we may get a major improvement but I don't know because these are awfully hard to get a read on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm with you. It's going to fill in. Oh man. im sorry i can't resist... But if that doesn't sound like a statement from the winter i don't know what does... "Why is it snowing in NJ - we are barely getting flurries out here" - "Don't worry the radar is filing in - the heavy snow will come" - 5 hours later the storms over and barely anything ever fills in- lol... Anyway- ya, this is a different situation - and who knows- something on Irene's west end may change, but how that ultimately effects its actual strength is unknown.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 There is still plenty of rain on the west side of the storm, the SW side of the storm is pretty cleared up though. Just means a faster ending to the weather from S-N unless it fills in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 75 mph gust now at Cape Hatteras, so finally an official hurricane strength gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 75 mph gust now at Cape Hatteras, so finally an official hurricane strength gust. What was that 93 mph gust Phil reported, SG? Maybe an overestimate? Also, in that thread someone reported sustained 67 gust 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Oh man. im sorry i can't resist... But if that doesn't sound like a statement from the winter i don't know what does... "Why is it snowing in NJ - we are barely getting flurries out here" - "Don't worry the radar is filing in - the heavy snow will come" - 5 hours later the storms over and barely anything ever fills in- lol... Anyway- ya, this is a different situation - and who knows- something on Irene's west end may change, but how that ultimately effects its actual strength is unknown.. LOL well you know last winter was different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 000WTNT44 KNHC 270857TCDAT4HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011500 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011SATELLITE IMAGERY AND COASTAL RADAR DATA SHOW THAT IRENE HAS LOSTSOME ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMEDSIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE IS A LACK OFCONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT IN THE RADAR DATA.THIS SUGGESTS THAT DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WESTOF IRENE IS STARTING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE HURRICANE. AN AIR FORCERESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONTINUES TO OBSERVE 90-100 KTWINDS AT 700 MB OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE HIGHESTSURFACE WIND ESTIMATES FROM THE SFMR HAVE ONLY BEEN 70-75 KT. THEINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 80 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLEGENEROUS. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THEAIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 952 MB.THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/12. IRENE IS WEST OF THE SUBTROPICALRIDGE...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A MID/UPPER-LEVELSHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IRENE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THEWESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WITH THE CENTER MOVINGOVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...OVER OR NEAR THE COAST OF THEMID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THEN OVER NEW ENGLAND. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARDWITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES THE CORE OF THEWESTERLIES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUSTRACK AND LIES IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.LAND INTERACTION...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND INCREASING VERTICALWIND SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE IRENE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ALONG THE U.S.EAST COAST. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AHURRICANE WITH A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL IN NEWENGLAND. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE NEWENGLAND LANDFALL...WITH IRENE GRADUALLY WEAKENING FROM 48-120 HR.THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE CENTER OF IRENE HAS DECREASED TO THEPOINT THAT WE WILL BE REVERTING TO THREE-HOURLY INTERMEDIATEADVISORIES.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 27/0900Z 34.1N 76.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 35.7N 75.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/0600Z 38.4N 74.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 28/1800Z 41.9N 72.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/0600Z 46.3N 69.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/0600Z 54.0N 59.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/0600Z 57.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP120H 01/0600Z 58.0N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP$$ FORECASTER BEVEN Link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This is telling... in fact, I don't recall NHC actually doing this prior to a landfalling hurricane before.... from the 5AM discussion: "THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE CENTER OF IRENE HAS DECREASED TO THE POINT THAT WE WILL BE REVERTING TO THREE-HOURLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This is telling... in fact, I don't recall NHC actually doing this prior to a landfalling hurricane before.... from the 5AM discussion: "THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE CENTER OF IRENE HAS DECREASED TO THE POINT THAT WE WILL BE REVERTING TO THREE-HOURLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES." I was going to ask you earlier, Ray-- what's the deciding factor in having three hourly versus two hourly intermediate advisories? Does it really make much of a difference? Two hourlies are not all that common-- I cant remember the last time I saw one before this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It seems odd they can justify it still being 75 mph when it gets to NY if they are saying its generous calling it 90 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It seems odd they can justify it still being 75 mph when it gets to NY if they are saying its generous calling it 90 now. Knabb is making a big deal out of the low pressure, saying it will make the wind field much larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Link still say at cat 1 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 There is still plenty of rain on the west side of the storm, the SW side of the storm is pretty cleared up though. Just means a faster ending to the weather from S-N unless it fills in Usually, once the back-side of a landfalling 'cane clears out like Irene has (which is actually typical and not at all unusual), it doesn't fill back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I was going to ask you earlier, Ray-- what's the deciding factor in having three hourly versus two hourly intermediate advisories? Does it really make much of a difference? Two hourlies are not all that common-- I cant remember the last time I saw one before this. Honestly I'm not sure what the deciding factor is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Usually, once the back-side of a landfalling 'cane clears out like Irene has (which is actually typical and not at all unusual), it doesn't fill back in. Yep.... like Gloria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I don't disagree with anyone about it weekend but I still think it will be major in NYC and li rain surge etc, wind upton never had me at sustained hurricane force only at 55-65 with gust to 85, I still see that happening with that being said we remember what the march nor Easter did with less wind and less rain, so within the area nothing really changes yea we won't have buildings destroyed but there will still be many power outages MANY trees down and damage to cars and homes from trees and flooding, so although not a doomsday which honestly we all knew wouldn't come but still a major and and possible destructive situation in the tri state area, finally NYC was pretty much evacuated and shut down trains etc mostly for flooding and wind, winds of 39 for trains and 50 for bridges to close so to sum it up, not much will be different here. Be safe guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This storm really is like Gloria's little cousin (in terms of intensity not size.) The major reason Gloria was stronger up here was because it was a Cat 5 at one point plus was moving much faster. Plus it had less land interaction than what is going to happen with Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 wow.. we went from a possible CAT 4. over the ocean...today...to a Cat 2.. now to Cat 1..and possible TS for New York.. How this gets a thumbs down is beyond me.....the apparent weakening of the storm is a *very* good thing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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