ScottB Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If that western deterioration continues.. whatever dense overcast eye area on the western side Irene has going for her will end up corroding. Obvious land interaction within 8 hours or so doesn't help any either. Edit: I think the question is now, does NWS/NHC downgrade the storm if it does weaken further? Or do they keep it at minimal hurricane strength to avoid the public reaction to a possible name change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Look what they are calling it on the bottom. Hahahaha..fail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Satalite is looking much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This is likely not going to be a hurricane by the time the storm reaches the latitude of New York... 60-70 mph is certainly possible, but I wouldn't go much higher than that at this point due to all the unfavorable conditions it will have to traverse at a slow pace in the next 24-36 hours. I heard some of the models were actually speeding it up and landfall would be up here around 8 AM Sunday-- just in time for high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 wow.. we went from a possible CAT 4. over the ocean...today...to a Cat 2.. now to Cat 1..and possible TS for New York.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Satalite is looking much better. See my earlier post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 There is nothing left to Irene on her southwest quadrant... This is looking like a form of Gloria every second.. What I think happens is that this storm causes a similar surge w/ slightly less winds than gloria, up in the NYC/LI area - a) because the track should be 50 miles further west - so NYC should see a worse surge than what it felt from Gloria and - the winds in the NYC area should be about the same as what Gloria produced - 45-65mph for the nyc area.. LI may see winds up to 70ish... about 15-20mph less than from what they (LI) experienced from Gloria.. Overall - a very bad tropical storm is what is headed toward us and b/c of the trajectory - nyc/ western LI may get a bigger surge than what normally would occur w/ a typical TS b/c of the unique coast line.. Storm of the century - no f'in way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 wow.. we went from a possible CAT 4. over the ocean...today...to a Cat 2.. now to Cat 1..and possible TS for New York.. looks that way..ya know it goes to show how hard it is to get a hurricane for the NYC area.everything has to work out perfectly...the way it used to be for snowstorms,NOT ANYMORE!..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 There is nothing left to Irene on her southwest quadrant... This is looking like a form of Gloria every second.. What I think happens is that this storm causes a similar surge w/ slightly less winds than gloria, up in the NYC/LI area - a) because the track should be 50 miles further west - so NYC should see a worse surge than what it felt from Gloria and the winds in the NYC area should be about the same as what Gloria produced - 45-65mph for the nyc area.. LI may see winds up to 70ish... about 15-20mph less than from what they (LI) experienced from Gloria.. Overall - a very bad tropical storm is what is headed toward us and b/c of the trajectory - nyc/ western LI may get a bigger surge than what normally would occur w/ a typical storm TS b/c of the unique coast line.. Storm of the century - no f'in way.. As tornadojay mentioned earlier, that quadrant should fill in ( models show this) once it interacts with the jet streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 There is nothing left to Irene on her southwest quadrant... This is looking like a form of Gloria every second.. What I think happens is that this storm causes a similar surge w/ slightly less winds than gloria, up in the NYC/LI area - a) because the track should be 50 miles further west - so NYC should see a worse surge than what it felt from Gloria and the winds in the NYC area should be about the same as what Gloria produced - 45-65mph for the nyc area.. LI may see winds up to 70ish... about 15-20mph less than from what they (LI) experienced from Gloria.. Overall - a very bad tropical storm is what is headed toward us and b/c of the trajectory - nyc/ western LI may get a bigger surge than what normally would occur w/ a typical storm TS b/c of the unique coast line.. Storm of the century - no f'in way.. being that's the case..I hope they call off the evacuations..south of Sunrise hwy..please!..go back to your homes and watch a bad noreaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 As tornadojay mentioned earlier, that quadrant should fill in ( models show this) once it interacts with the jet streak. gotcha - that appears to be the only unknown variable left w/ this storm.. How will this Jet streak ultimately effect the real world effects of this storm up in the NYC/LI area.. i guess we'll find out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 IR does look better and radar looks to be trying to wrap moisture around eye as well, however, she does look to have taken sizable jog north with hair to the NNW. I guess a landfalling 50kt tropical storm in Jersey is in order now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This will sure be a tropical storm when it hits NJ/NYC and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 being that's the case..I hope they call off the evacuations..south of Sunrise hwy..please!..go back to your homes and watch a bad noreaster Ya, this was total over kill.. I'll eat my words if we get major coastal flooding, but this storm just doesn't appear to have what it takes to cause the utter disaster that they're trying to depict w/ that type of evacuation.. If this were a Cat 4 storm right now- off the outer banks - making a be-line for western LI - then i'd say it would be warranted.. But when they implemented this evacation - the storm was barely holding onto it's Cat 2 status and has since lost momentum. Very poor judgement in my opinion.... but hey- what do i know.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This will sure be a tropical storm when it hits NJ/NYC and LI Based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Ya, this was total over kill.. I'll eat my words if we get major coastal flooding, but this storm just doesn't appear to have what it takes to cause the utter disaster that they're trying to depict w/ that type of evacuation.. If this were a Cat 4 storm right now- off the outer banks - making a be-line for western LI - then i'd say it would be warranted.. But when they implemented this evacation - the storm was barely holding onto it's Cat 2 status and has since lost momentum. Very poor judgement in my opinion.... but hey- what do i know.. One thing I'll say, for the emergency manager's sake... after Katrina, you can't really blame anyone for being overly cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 High end tropical storm = low end category 1 . It's really kind of the same thing , and the storm surge won't be affected at all I would assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 One thing I'll say, for the emergency manager's sake... after Katrina, you can't really blame anyone for being overly cautious. And to think I was worried for the safety of your precious trees, Ray Heh, let's see if they even sway in the breeze. JK I actually think this will still be a minimal 75-80 mph hurricane up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 IR does look better and radar looks to be trying to wrap moisture around eye as well, however, she does look to have taken sizable jog north with hair to the NNW. I guess a landfalling 50kt tropical storm in Jersey is in order now. I'm gonna say this one more time. IR doesn't really look better. Cloud tops are colder, but organization is horrid right now. Its a, as phlwx put it, "halfacane". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 High end tropical storm = low end category 1 . It's really kind of the same thing , and the storm surge won't be affected at all I would assume. I agree, I actually think they will keep it at minimal hurricane status until it's in NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm gonna say this one more time. IR doesn't really look better. Cloud tops are colder, but organization is horrid right now. Its a, as phlwx put it, "halfacane". Maybe that's because of the satellite black out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 High end tropical storm = low end category 1 . It's really kind of the same thing , and the storm surge won't be affected at all I would assume. Thats true, but if the system was 65 mph the area of the storm with sustained winds to 65 mph would be miniscule. Thats the marked difference between a symmetrical 75 mph cane coming into south Florida and a weakening system coming into LI or New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 One thing I'll say, for the emergency manager's sake... after Katrina, you can't really blame anyone for being overly cautious. Perhaps, but Katrina was a different animal and we were talking about New Orleans that sits 10 feet below sea level. Look, whatever happens happens, but it seems that with weather, you are damned if you do and damned if u don't.. weathermen can't win w/ the public because they'll never understand the intricacies involved in forecasting a storm like this.. Overall, the weather models have been amazing over the past week... The fact that the GFS had this storm in its current vicinity a week ago is amazing... Yet the general public would never appreciate such a feat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm gonna say this one more time. IR doesn't really look better. Cloud tops are colder, but organization is horrid right now. Its a, as phlwx put it, "halfacane". Yea for real....as good as the east side looks the west side looks equally bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Yea for real....as good as the east side looks the west side looks equally bad. And the east side will board the pain train shortly as well once the center comes onto the coast and spends time over or near NC/VA for a decent amount of time. That and eventually dry air should wrap into that region as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm willing to bet that the west side of the storm will blow up once it moves past the outer banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Wow. There will be mass weenie suicide when they wake up and see this.... I have been saying the evacuations in Nj were overkill to some of my friends who were told to get out and had literally no flood or surge threats whatsoever. Guess when I head down to belmar beach tomorrow I still better write my name in permanent marker on my arm. Haha. It's gonna be a helluva storm just less damaging. And I'm cool with that. Halfacane...I like that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Yea for real....as good as the east side looks the west side looks equally bad. It looks like someone cut off half of her body.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It's at 90 mph now and won't be getting any stronger. It might exit NC barely a Cat 1, and the cooler waters won't support a hurricane. It's out of the Gulf Stream. There still is a lot of dry air. Convection on the southern half is virtually nonexistant. This was forecast to be a Cat 3 slamming into NC and a Cat 2 just east of Atlantic City. The wind is 25 mph weaker than was forecast at this time. Even looking at surface obs, there are only 4 sites near the coast reporting TS winds, even though the wind radius is supposed to be TS force out to near Raleigh.<br><br>Look at all that dry air close to the eyewall!<br> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Perhaps, but Katrina was a different animal and we were talking about New Orleans that sits 10 feet below sea level. Look, whatever happens happens, but it seems that with weather, you are damned if you do and damned if u don't.. weathermen can't win w/ the public because they'll never understand the intricacies involved in forecasting a storm like this.. Overall, the weather models have been amazing over the past week... The fact that the GFS had this storm in its current vicinity a week ago is amazing... Yet the general public would never appreciate such a feat... New York City is big and evacuations take time. You can't wait until *NOW* to order evacuations just to see if its actually gonna be strong or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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