Jefflaw77 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 THe question is...how does this impact surge? That's right.. Who knows.. What I do know is that if this storm goes to the east of NYC - the surge should be less... What's going to undoubtedly happen is that this storm may end up being the most hyped storm ever if the surge doesn't materialize.. The winds sure as hell (based on the satellite) won't be close to what originally thought, in the NYC area as this storm will barely be a hurricane once it gets to our latitude, especially if it goes slightly to the right of NYC.. What the general public sadly, will end up talking about for days or weeks is how a) meteorologists are idiots 2) the media hyped this storm beyond belief and thus the municipalities over reacted with their evacuations, road closures etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 That's right.. Who knows.. What I do know is that if this storm goes to the east of NYC - the surge should be less... What's going to undoubtedly happen is that this storm may end up being the most hyped storm ever if the surge doesn't materialize.. The winds sure as hell (based on the satellite) won't be close to what originally thought, in the NYC area as this storm will barely be a hurricane once it gets to our latitude, especially if it goes slightly to the right of NYC.. What the general public sadly, will end up talking about for days or weeks is how a) meteorologists are idiots 2) the media hyped this storm beyond belief and thus the municipalities over reacted with their evacuations, road closures etc.. That last paragraph, you are correct, and that is sad....because everything was point to a strong Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricane plowing into NYC or LI.....the general public is just to ignorant to realize these things aren't "set in stone," and unfortunately, this will happen again, and there will be a cat 2 storm that does slam into NYC, and people will poo poo it, and people will die from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 To show you how difficult intensity forecasts are, from the August 26th 03Z advisory, the forecast wind speed for August 27th at 12Z was 120 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_sat.html satalite looks pretty good....it doesnt really match up with the wind strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 That's right.. Who knows.. What I do know is that if this storm goes to the east of NYC - the surge should be less... What's going to undoubtedly happen is that this storm may end up being the most hyped storm ever if the surge doesn't materialize.. The winds sure as hell (based on the satellite) won't be close to what originally thought, in the NYC area as this storm will barely be a hurricane once it gets to our latitude, especially if it goes slightly to the right of NYC.. What the general public sadly, will end up talking about for days or weeks is how a) meteorologists are idiots 2) the media hyped this storm beyond belief and thus the municipalities over reacted with their evacuations, road closures etc.. Fortunately hurricanes in this area are rare so people will forget by the time the next one threatens. Remember March 2001? We had plenty of snowstorms since then, and people still freak out the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 To show you how difficult intensity forecasts are, from the August 26th 03Z advisory, the forecast wind speed for August 27th at 12Z was 120 mph. All of us on here understand that....the general puclic, they don't. It is unfortunate that so many people have the "it can't happen to me attitude" and will not listen to anyone because they want to seem "macho" or want to believe that they are invincible. One day, that attitude will get a lot of people killed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Strong tropical storm force winds over an extended period of time will do it's damage... I think that's all it takes.. Think about a severe thunderstorm with wind gusts in the 60-70 mph range and what those sometimes do... those winds last maybe a few minutes.. sustained winds over 50 mph for hours on end will have far reaching impact... yes... maybe not catostrophic impacts like a cat 2 'cane which was on the table before, but still severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 http://www.wundergro...201109_sat.html satalite looks pretty good....it doesnt really match up with the wind strength. Huh? The center is close to being exposed? The core of the storm has almost completely eroded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Strong tropical storm force winds over an extended period of time will do it's damage... I think that's all it takes.. Think about a severe thunderstorm with wind gusts in the 60-70 mph range and what those sometimes do... those winds last maybe a few minutes.. sustained winds over 50 mph for hours on end will have far reaching impact... yes... maybe not catostrophic impacts like a cat 2 'cane which was on the table before, but still severe. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 For a Cat 1 it's interesting how incredibly low the pressure still is. Normally 952 mb would be the pressure of a Cat 3 hurricane. Anyway, even though it's looking much less likely that it will even make it up here as a hurricane, the flooding rains will still probably be a huge concern and could end up being what this storm is most remembered for. And with the very wet ground, tropical storm force winds can still be pretty damaging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Two things before I fall asleep. 1. For the record, I am sticking with my call of having Irene stay just east of the NJ coast. 2. It's funny how the media was hyping all of these different tracks and not zeroing in on one, but were all pretty much completely zeroed in on an intensity of cat 1 or 2. One of the most common things to go wrong with a landfalling hurricane is more rapid weakening than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Two things before I fall asleep. 1. For the record, I am sticking with my call of having Irene stay just east of the NJ coast. 2. It's funny how the media was hyping all of these different tracks and not zeroing in on one, but were all pretty much completely zeroed in on an intensity of cat 1 or 2. One of the most common things to go wrong with a landfalling hurricane is more rapid weakening than forecast. You think its enters into the Ny vicinity as a cat 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 For a point of reference, when 'Gloria' was basically due east of Atlantic City, I've mentioned before, the NHC had the maximum sustained winds (although grossly overestimated) at 130 mph. Imagine that today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 For a point of reference, when Gloria was basically due east of Atlantic City, I've mentioned before, the NHC had the maximum sustained winds (although grossly overestimated) at 130 mph. Imagine that today. So in what sense do some of you think this will be worse than Gloria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 That last paragraph, you are correct, and that is sad....because everything was point to a strong Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricane plowing into NYC or LI.....the general public is just to ignorant to realize these things aren't "set in stone," and unfortunately, this will happen again, and there will be a cat 2 storm that does slam into NYC, and people will poo poo it, and people will die from it. NHC and some of these TV forecasters should have realized based on their official track that this thing rubbing the coast that long would be detrimental to maintaining itself. It is such a large storm and as a result would entrain a boatload of dry air. You can already see the last 2 hours the western side appears to be dry air bitten. I have been going with track more offshore and still felt dry air entrainment would be a factor in the weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 For a point of reference, when 'Gloria' was basically due east of Atlantic City, I've mentioned before, the NHC had the maximum sustained winds (although grossly overestimated) at 130 mph. Imagine that today. That had to have been completely wrong - b/c the storm looked like **** (relatively) speaking down off N.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 So in what sense do some of you think this will be worse than Gloria. NHC and some of these TV forecasters should have realized based on their official track that this thing rubbing the coast that long would be detrimental to maintaining itself. It is such a large storm and as a result would entrain a boatload of dry air. You can already see the last 2 hours the western side appears to be dry air bitten. I have been going with track more offshore and still felt dry air entrainment would be a factor in the weakening. The problem with tropical cyclones heading up the east coast are that SST's decrease poleward, mid-level dry air becomes a factor and that half the circulation is over land. I'm wondering, in the era of reliable records how many tropical cyclones along the east coast were category three while at a latitude poleward of Charleston, SC? Hugo in 1989 comes to mind. Gloria as well, but that could have been overestimated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 That had to have been completely wrong - b/c the storm looked like **** (relatively) speaking down off N.C. It was, but in today's media world, the hype and such, there would be hell to pay today with an overestimation like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 NHC and some of these TV forecasters should have realized based on their official track that this thing rubbing the coast that long would be detrimental to maintaining itself. It is such a large storm and as a result would entrain a boatload of dry air. You can already see the last 2 hours the western side appears to be dry air bitten. I have been going with track more offshore and still felt dry air entrainment would be a factor in the weakening. that void should theoretically really start filling in tomorrow once it interacts with the jet streak developing over the northeast. This jet streak is progged to become pretty massive at 130 knots and the forecasted wind field is showing a good deal of divergence at that level near our area. Although the tropical system is a bit dried out, perhaps, the heavy rains will be more driven on the good dynamics forecasted over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The problem with tropical cyclones heading up the east coast are that SST's decrease poleward, mid-level dry air becomes a factor and that half the circulation is over land. I'm wondering, in the era of reliable records how many tropical cyclones along the east coast were category three while at a latitude poleward of Charleston, SC? Hugo in 1989 comes to mind. Gloria as well, but that could have been overestimated. Do you think the tough/jetstreak keeps this together..or even throws it an extra punch like Cantore mentioned last night ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 that void should theoretically really start filling in tomorrow once it interacts with the jet streak developing over the northeast. This jet streak is progged to become pretty massive at 130 knots and the forecasted wind field is showing a good deal of divergence at that level near our area. Although the tropical system is a bit dried out, perhaps, the heavy rains will be more driven on the good dynamics forecasted over the area. Think I just got my answer. Thanks, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This is likely not going to be a hurricane by the time the storm reaches the latitude of New York... 60-70 mph is certainly possible, but I wouldn't go much higher than that at this point due to all the unfavorable conditions it will have to traverse at a slow pace in the next 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 That had to have been completely wrong - b/c the storm looked like **** (relatively) speaking down off N.C. Gloria looked like Bo Derek in her prime compared to Irene who looks like Joan Rivers without make-up and a botox prescription. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Think I just got my answer. Thanks, haha. no problem.. the global models have been consistantly showing that the QPF on the northwest side of the storm becomes much more prolific as it heads into the tri-state... this has not changed in several days, so I think confidence in really heavy QPF values are high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The problem with tropical cyclones heading up the east coast are that SST's decrease poleward, mid-level dry air becomes a factor and that half the circulation is over land. I'm wondering, in the era of reliable records how many tropical cyclones along the east coast were category three while at a latitude poleward of Charleston, SC? Hugo in 1989 comes to mind. Gloria as well, but that could have been overestimated. Bill Korbel who is the News 12 Long Island meteorologist said on a News 12 LI hurricane special show back in 2001 or 2002 that NYC or LI to truly get hammered with the full effects of a cat 3 storm the system HAD TO ENTIRELY avoid North Carolina on the way up and make a due north motion for LI and a NNW motion for NYC. Obviously some models show this storm doing that, but the angle at which it does is much too close to the shore. He even mentioned the issue was not so much the land interaction but actually did indicate dry air from the continent being the problem as well as the typical nosing down of cooler SSTs nearer the shore when a system approaching from more out to sea would feed off the gulf stream longer.. Gloria weakened more than anticipated, they thought she was still 125-130 mph off Atlantic City but of course this was not the case at all. The 1938 hurricane did this, not many others did...1944 probably avoided NC even more than Irene will though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The eye is definitely going to make landfall in the outer banks in the next few hours.. For whatever it;s worth- the satellite has improved a bit over the past hour.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 NHC and some of these TV forecasters should have realized based on their official track that this thing rubbing the coast that long would be detrimental to maintaining itself. It is such a large storm and as a result would entrain a boatload of dry air. You can already see the last 2 hours the western side appears to be dry air bitten. I have been going with track more offshore and still felt dry air entrainment would be a factor in the weakening. I think people were fooled by the models showing the very low pressure readings all the way up the coast and figured "ok, yeah it'll maintain intensity for a while." Meanwhile, I pointed out, early Thursday I think on the Philly subforum, that Gloria was borderline cat 1/2 with a pressure of 961 at landfall on LI. Which just goes to show how reliable pressure is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The eye is definitely going to make landfall in the outer banks in the next few hours.. For whatever it;s worth- the satellite has improved a bit over the past hour.. Cloud-top temp-wise, yes. Organization-wise, it looks as bad or even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 that void should theoretically really start filling in tomorrow once it interacts with the jet streak developing over the northeast. This jet streak is progged to become pretty massive at 130 knots and the forecasted wind field is showing a good deal of divergence at that level near our area. Although the tropical system is a bit dried out, perhaps, the heavy rains will be more driven on the good dynamics forecasted over the area. Since Irene is most likely going to track off the NJ shore into just East of NYC. Is there any kind of tornado threat like in NC for LI that means anywhere N or NE of the center? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Look what they are calling it on the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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