Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II

[LocoAko]

Whaaat?!

That is dangerously misleading.

You want dangerously misleading? I was watching Channel 2 earlier today and they showed "Storm Surge Potential" and showed the entire NYC Metro area but only did hte 5 boroughs of storm surge, making it look like Essex/Union/Hudson were completely fine. DUMB.

Speaking of, Jersey City is now making an evacuation decision on Saturday. Anyone think that's a bit late???? Never thought I'd see my grammar school as an emergency shelter. It looks like they're expecting people to go to shelters as opposed to truly leaving the area.

http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nj.com%2Fhudson%2Findex.ssf%2F2011%2F08%2Fjersey_city_will_wait_until_sa.html%3Futm_source%3Dtwitterfeed%26utm_medium%3Dtwitter&h=eAQAzhxGNAQB-mgCfRK950oCRzkssqyusy05cW1fETtftQA

[CooL]

there are some weird posts on here. lol

back on topic and back to whats happening now. Irene could be contracting and strengthening based on the latest IR. Eye is looking better as well. Stop talking about the NAM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[earthlight]

Last warning. People are going to be banned until the hurricane passes our area if the terrible posting quality continues.

If you have to think about whether your post is acceptable or not before you post it, don't post it.

[NorEaster27]

I dont see whats wrong discussing the newest run of the NAM, the New England forum is doing it just fine and no one is freaking out over how "bad" it is. It was a pretty significant shift east and it should not be discarded. My point is and has been for the last 3 days is that its still way to early to be nailing down a track. Average error is still over 100 miles at this juncture which can make all the difference in the world. Also as we have seen this storm so far has not behaved like an "average" storm. Many small variables can cause big shifts in the track. I am shocked we have news stations this far out stating wind gusts of 80-100 mph in NYC, that seems like total hype. I would not be forecasting winds stronger than 50 mph this early in the game for NYC on west.

[nycsnow]

Steve d -"I should address the 00Z NAM which is a bit further to the East.  I studied the trough on the guidance and the trough appears to be too strong in initial 6 hours of the forecast and I think that attributes to the slight push east.  Of course with hurricanes, a job east or west by 25 to 50 miles wouldn’t be surprising, it’s why we use cones of impact after all."

[IsentropicLift]

even though I've said that the NAM is not a very good tropical model, I just wanted to point out that the 00z run was not really east looking at it on high res

It may be just east of the dooms day track, but its still a bad situation and a boat load of rain

[mulen]

New england thread had a post from a hurricane hunter pilot their call is low end cat2 high cat1 entire east coast o.k fellows these are the guys that get up close and personal with canes so relax sit back and enjoy the destruction.Awesome discussion go find it its inthe first thread.

[earthlight]

even though I've said that the NAM is not a very good tropical model, I just wanted to point out that the 00z run was not really east looking at it on high res

It may be just east of the dooms day track, but its still a bad situation and a boat load of rain

That would be the 18z NAM image you posted. Please get your posts together before you continue. Thanks.

[earthlight]

I dont see whats wrong discussing the newest run of the NAM, the New England forum is doing it just fine and no one is freaking out over how "bad" it is. It was a pretty significant shift east and it should not be discarded. My point is and has been for the last 3 days is that its still way to early to be nailing down a track. Average error is still over 100 miles at this juncture which can make all the difference in the world. Also as we have seen this storm so far has not behaved like an "average" storm. Many small variables can cause big shifts in the track. I am shocked we have news stations this far out stating wind gusts of 80-100 mph in NYC, that seems like total hype. I would not be forecasting winds stronger than 50 mph this early in the game for NYC on west.

Nothing wrong with discussing it, but the way which you specifically address it does not harbor discussion. The rest of your above post I agree with.

[eduggs]

I agree that a slightly offshore track should not be discounted. But not because of the 0z NAM. Rather, because it's a classic track.

A westward component to a hurricane's movement is rare north of Hatteras. Every eastward wobble between here and there makes it more unlikely Irene tucks back west into SNJ. Of course it's possible, but I think it's reasonable to anticipate that a LI landfall is more likely than NJ. I think the best chance for a very close pass along the metropolitan corridor is if Irene makes landfall on the NC mainland and then the Delmarva instead of just brushing the outer banks.

[NorEaster27]

Nothing wrong with discussing it, but the way which you specifically address it does not harbor discussion. The rest of your above post I agree with.

Lee Goldberg is the only on air met that I watch (and Jeff Smith) and I was shocked he went for that strong this early in the game. Does not make much sense to me when we have so much time where a subtle shift of 100 miles can make a huge difference on impact.

[NorEaster27]

I agree that a slightly offshore track should not be discounted. But not because of the 0z NAM. Rather, because it's a classic track.

A westward component to a hurricane's movement is rare north of Hatteras. Every eastward wobble between here and there makes it more unlikely Irene tucks back west into SNJ. Of course it's possible, but I think it's reasonable to anticipate that a LI landfall is more likely than NJ. I think the best chance for a very close pass along the metropolitan corridor is if Irene makes landfall on the NC mainland and then the Delmarva instead of just brushing the outer banks.

agreed, if Irene does not make landfall inside the outerbank in mainland NC, the chances of it impacting NYC directly decrease greatly. The storm is not going to bend back to the NW, we do not have a strong neg titled trough to its west. Yes we do have the ATL ridge...but that will not turn the storm after its accelerating to the North.

[earthlight]

I would expect the GFS to be pretty similar to the NAM at this point..the NCEP models have been moving step in step. I'm most interested in the other high resolution models and the Euro tonight...which last night took the storm West of Philly.

[IsentropicLift]

That would be the 18z NAM image you posted. Please get your posts together before you continue. Thanks.

my bad, I posted the wrong pic, I stand corrected, in any event its still a huge impact event rain wise even though it shouldnt be used for tropical forecasts

[NorEaster27]

Also, the faster the storm moves, the less wind we will see on the west side. As the momentum of the storm increase theconservation of angular momentum increases the winds on the right side of the track while decreasing them on the left.

[IsentropicLift]

I fully expect the GFS to remain close the shoreline, possably a slight shift east, but nowhere near the NAM, due to the NAM's seemingly poor handeling of the trough

[Sundog]

I would expect the GFS to be pretty similar to the NAM at this point..the NCEP models have been moving step in step. I'm most interested in the other high resolution models and the Euro tonight...which last night took the storm West of Philly.

18z GFS already was hinting at a more easterly track. What I am really curious to see is how the Euro rolls in tonight. It has been one the most west models over the last several days.

[NorEaster27]

Also one feature to note, the storm is speeding up on most of the new models tonight, that would increase the chance of this storm moving more NE at this latitude than east....the ATL ridge will not build west fast enough to slow it down or try and turn the storm more NW. Looking at the IR sat we see Irene really starting to pick up speed and head due North, these are big changes guys.

[Quincy]

If the ECMWF is still west, I'd throw it in the garbage. Take a look at the satellite loops from this evening, this storm is moving almost due north and as others have said, it is not very probable that this storm would turn back to the NW, especially once it gets north of Cape Hatteras.

Depending on how you look at this, it's either a good thing or a bad thing...if the storm only grazes NC, we'll have the storm stay just east of NJ, but then slam central and eastern LI, quite possibly as a Cat 2 hurricane. Yes, maybe sparing the City the worst winds and surge, but then causing major issues further east and into SE NE.

[earthlight]

The GFS is definitely a bit faster than it's previous runs through 27 hours...a pretty noticeable increase in speed on the models through tomorrow night.

[NorEaster27]

If the ECMWF is still west, I'd throw it in the garbage. Take a look at the satellite loops from this evening, this storm is moving almost due north and as others have said, it is not very probable that this storm would turn back to the NW, especially once it gets north of Cape Hatteras.

Depending on how you look at this, it's either a good thing or a bad thing...if the storm only grazes NC, we'll have the storm stay just east of NJ, but then slam central and eastern LI, quite possibly as a Cat 2 hurricane. Yes, maybe sparing the City the worst winds and surge, but then causing major issues further east and into SE NE.

very much agreed, subtle but important changes we are seeing tonight.

[jm1220]

agreed, if Irene does not make landfall inside the outerbank in mainland NC, the chances of it impacting NYC directly decrease greatly. The storm is not going to bend back to the NW, we do not have a strong neg titled trough to its west. Yes we do have the ATL ridge...but that will not turn the storm after its accelerating to the North.

Whether the eye crosses over somewhere in Suffolk County or NYC directly won't matter a tremendous amount. The hurricane is so large and effects felt over such a wide area that there will be a massive pileup of water, high enough winds to damage trees/power lines, and huge rainfall amounts unless the hurricane does something crazy and veers NE which no model even comes close to. There is still the potential for a ton of damage regardless. Just going by the size of the storm and the amount of water that must be piling up, someone is going to get demolished, weakening or not. Remember Katrina packing a surge 1-2 categories above what it was wind wise? I can imagine someone around or east of the track getting a normally Cat 3 sized surge because of the storm's size and amount of water piled up. Even if I'm on the left side of the storm by a fair amount, I'm still quite sure much of the south shore will be inundated at one point or another. Donna went well east of here and placed Long Beach under water. The new moon certainly doesn't help either.

[NickD2011]

Also, the faster the storm moves, the less wind we will see on the west side. As the momentum of the storm increase theconservation of angular momentum increases the winds on the right side of the track while decreasing them on the left.

Not quite the case when a storm becomes extratropical

[NorEaster27]

Not quite the case when a storm becomes extratropical

I dont see that happening to well north of the region.

[IsentropicLift]

Some mets on the main forum are saying this is a CAT 4 by 8AM

IR presentation rapidly improving and per the latest winds are responding in the NE eyewall

[CooL]

GFS out to 39. Slamming coastal NC and the banks.

hr 42, heading north.

[jm1220]

If the ECMWF is still west, I'd throw it in the garbage. Take a look at the satellite loops from this evening, this storm is moving almost due north and as others have said, it is not very probable that this storm would turn back to the NW, especially once it gets north of Cape Hatteras.

Depending on how you look at this, it's either a good thing or a bad thing...if the storm only grazes NC, we'll have the storm stay just east of NJ, but then slam central and eastern LI, quite possibly as a Cat 2 hurricane. Yes, maybe sparing the City the worst winds and surge, but then causing major issues further east and into SE NE.

I'd agree-the odds of a central/eastern LI landfall have definitely increased tonight. Even now the hurricane seems to be just east of NHC's track. Maybe a few more wobbles left still in her, but for the most part Irene's headed due north now

[WeatherFox]

Nice outflow arc to the northwest of the Cat 3 hurricane with the eye of Irene partly discernible & looks to be contracting. Irene over the highest SST at this time so some strengthening should occur overnight.

[Sundog]

Also one feature to note, the storm is speeding up on most of the new models tonight, that would increase the chance of this storm moving more NE at this latitude than east....the ATL ridge will not build west fast enough to slow it down or try and turn the storm more NW. Looking at the IR sat we see Irene really starting to pick up speed and head due North, these are big changes guys.

I will admit that I do have interest in not seeing her track right over the city, but the changes we've seen since 18z are not my biased eyes playing tricks. If you look at the track forecasts that have been issued recently, Irene was progged to be still moving in a NNW direction. She has in fact already turned due north and there was even a wobble to the NNE thrown in there:

[NorEaster27]

Whether the eye crosses over somewhere in Suffolk County or NYC directly won't matter a tremendous amount. The hurricane is so large and effects felt over such a wide area that there will be a massive pileup of water, high enough winds to damage trees/power lines, and huge rainfall amounts unless the hurricane does something crazy and veers NE which no model even comes close to. There is still the potential for a ton of damage regardless. Just going by the size of the storm and the amount of water that must be piling up, someone is going to get demolished, weakening or not. Remember Katrina packing a surge 1-2 categories above what it was wind wise? I can imagine someone around or east of the track getting a normally Cat 3 sized surge because of the storm's size and amount of water piled up. Even if I'm on the left side of the storm by a fair amount, I'm still quite sure much of the south shore will be inundated at one point or another. Donna went well east of here and placed Long Beach under water. The new moon certainly doesn't help either.

Yes, Donna caused flooding here also but if the storm really gets tuged east as I believe will ultimately be the case, we shouldn't get hit with storm surge here. I was getting pretty worried about possible water into my house this afternoon but these latest trends have really started to shift me away from that idea.