Dsnowx53 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Close to the same landfall point as before? You should make one of your patented detailed maps I'm making it now! Waiting for the 42-hour panel to come out on wunderground. It's a tick west of the GFS, but a very similar idea overall. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Zoomed in graphics at wundermap have an LBI landfall at 36 hours on the Euro. Southeast winds are howling into NY Harbor at that hour. And it's the new moon tide. . Who needs a Category 7? how about a borderline CAT 1. The destruction + The Humiliation all in one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Wow, this is the real deal. WInds, lots of rain, but most importantly, a dangerous surge potential emerging. Anyone know a webcam of the NY Harbour? or is Jim Cantore going to be at Battery Park? If this would come in over NYC at 8am, there is going to be no one at battery park..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm pretty confident the storm center remains towards our east. The worse affects will be rain and I am expected widespread flooding, much of which will be historic...we're probably talking about 8" of rainfall in an area that is already very saturated. If the storm stays as far east as my latest forecast, we could get some of the heaviest rain in the entire region, making a bad situation even worse... as far as winds, sustained winds reach 40-60 MPH for a short time, so I don't think wind damage is a big issue. Do you think that being at 360 feet makes any difference in wind speed? I am just concerned about my 80 foot trees. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 We still haven't seen a megatsunami here-- maybe we will if an asteroid impacts just offshore. keep an eye on the teide volcano in the canary islands........ when that blows, big wave cometh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-severe-weather-webcam A stream out of Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If this would come in over NYC at 8am, there is going to be no one at battery park..... Ugh, I need to see the surge waves. Hopefully Jim Cantore pursues this at Battery Park. Well if anything, the track is plenty dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 0z Euro track: (I can't draw straight lines, especially in the southern portion of my drawing, so ignore the mini zig-zagging, lol.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 0z Euro track: wow..what are those circled numbers? and does the wind map show the sustained winds at the time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Well hopefully it goes a little more east for NYC, because the euro track is ugly in terms of surge. I think a western LI track....even though it's not too far away, would be better for sure. I still think the euro is just a little too far west, but it got rid of the western solution is had 12 hrs ago. Anyways we'll see...maybe it does take that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 0z Euro track: (I can't draw straight lines, especially in the southern portion of my drawing, so ignore the mini zig-zagging, lol.) Goodness the eye goes right over Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 wow..what are those circled numbers? and does the wind map show the sustained winds at the time? Those are the current weather conditions that are automatically put on the wundermap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 0z Euro track: (I can't draw straight lines, especially in the southern portion of my drawing, so ignore the mini zig-zagging, lol.) can you show the maps for 6-12z sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If this goes over the city how would the hurricane winds work what area?Cause I'm still curious what type of winds can I expect in Brooklyn! Thank u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 can you show the maps for 6-12z sunday? Oops, I should have drawn boxes at those points. At 6z Sunday, it is JUST SE of Forked River. And at 12z Sunday, it is literally right where I stopped drawing. As some of you might have noticed, I drew the southern portion of the line (from south of Forked River to the bottom of the page) AFTER I drew the northern portion of the line. That's why it looks so bad. But yeah, it's just a tick west of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Sept. 3, 1821 Hurricane Citywide • Believed to pass directly over parts of New York City • Tides rose 13 feet in one hour and caused the East River toconverge into the Hudson Riveracross lower Manhattanalong Canal Street • No deaths reported Aug. 24, 1893 Hurricane Citywide • Category 1 • Destroyed Hog Island Oct. 10, 1894 Hurricane Citywide • Category 1 Sept. 21, 1938 Hurricane Citywide • Category 3 • Most powerful hurricane to make landfall near New York City • Eye crossed over Long Island giving it its name, the Long Island Express • Killed nearly 200 people total; 10 in New York City • Electricity knocked out north of 59th Streetin Manhattan • 100 large trees in Central Parkwere destroyed Aug. 30, 1954 Hurricane Carol Citywide • Made landfall in eastern Long Island and SE Connecticut • Sustained winds more than 100 mph and gusts 115 to 125 mph • Most destructive hurricane to hit the northeast coast since the 1938 hurricane • Major flooding throughout the City Aug. 19, 1955 Hurricanes Diane and Connie Citywide • Leftover rains from hurricanes dropped nearly 12 inches of rain at LaGuardia Airport • In just over one week, the remnants of 2 hurricanes passed over the City. Sept. 12, 1960 Hurricane Donna Citywide • Created an 11-foot storm tide in New York Harbor and caused extensive pier damage June 22, 1972 Tropical Storm Agnes Citywide • Agnes fused with another storm system in the northeastern U.S., flooding areas from North Carolina to New York State • Caused 122 deaths • More than $6 billion in damage (when adjusted for inflation) Sept. 27, 1985 Hurricane Gloria Citywide • Category 3 • Made landfall on Long Islandat 80 mph • Produced a modest storm surge of 4-7 feet above normal across the Atlantic • Could have produced a much stronger and intense storm surge if it happened during high tide • Caused the largest single power loss in U.S.history at the time • Total damage estimated at $900 million in 1986 Dec. 21, 1992 Nor'easter Citywide • Flooding and coastal erosion, debris • Damage to residential and commercial structures, utility lines, roads and other infrastructure June 17, 1995 Hurricane Felix Citywide • Hurricane Felix lingered off the East Coast for nearly a week, menacing the northeastern U.S. before it finally drifted out to sea June 18, 1996 Tropical Storm Bertha Citywide • Weakening storm brought heavy rain to the City Jan. 3, 1999 Nor'easter Citywide • 2.42 inches of rain • 50-vehicle accident in Queens Sept. 16, 1999 Tropical Storm Floyd Citywide • Flooded subway tunnels across the City causing service disruptions • Dropped 10-15 inches of rain in a 24-hour period • Public schools closed for the day Sept. 18, 2003 Tropical Storm Isabel Brooklyn, Bronx, Queens, Staten Island • One fatality in the NY area – a man drowned while bodysurfing off Long Beach, Long Island • A fallen tree branch in the Bronx seriously injured a man • 640 trees and 801 tree limbs were downed across the City • Total damage exceeded $1 billion along the East Coast Apr. 15, 2007 Nor'easter Citywide • More than 7.5 inches of rain in Central Park • More than 500 flights cancelled • Disrupted power to 18,500 customers in three states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 more accurate current extrapolated path, assuming no major jogs and that the current NNE heading remains at the same degrees: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 wow..what are those circled numbers? and does the wind map show the sustained winds at the time? I'm not sure how literally to take the wind maps. They tend to show stronger winds 200 miles east of the center than they do just east of the eye-wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 about gloria Sept. 27, 1985 Hurricane Gloria • Category 3 • Made landfall on Long Islandat 80mph • Produced a modest storm surge of 4-7 feet above normal across the Atlantic • Could have produced a much stronger and intense storm surge if it happened during high tide • Caused the largest single power loss in U.S.history at the time • Total damage estimated at $900 million in 1986 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Do you think that being at 360 feet makes any difference in wind speed? I am just concerned about my 80 foot trees. Thanks. that height doesn't make a whole lot of difference. what kind of trees, what shape are they in and how is the soil moisture in your area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Has anyone seen the latest satelite picture? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg There is nothing left to this storm on the left side.. It really seems to be falling apart.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 In case anyone missed it..some nice live coverage out of carolinas http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-severe-weather-webcam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 that height doesn't make a whole lot of difference. what kind of trees, what shape are they in and how is the soil moisture in your area? Soil moisture well we have had about ten inches of rain in the last few weeks. The trees are maple trees that are pretty healthy I think and then norwegian spruces that are not as healthy. They are all probably at least 80 years old. Thanks for replying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 this storm http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/avn-l.jpg - currently vs Gloria at pretty much same lat/long... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hurricane_Gloria_south_of_North_Carolina.gif Irene appears to be hanging on by a thread.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Well hopefully it goes a little more east for NYC, because the euro track is ugly in terms of surge. I think a western LI track....even though it's not too far away, would be better for sure. I still think the euro is just a little too far west, but it got rid of the western solution is had 12 hrs ago. Anyways we'll see...maybe it does take that track. It looks like a combo of 1821 and 1893 track lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 more accurate current extrapolated path, assuming no major jogs and that the current NNE heading remains at the same degrees: Wow, so you think the track will be that far to the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Oops, I should have drawn boxes at those points. At 6z Sunday, it is JUST SE of Forked River. And at 12z Sunday, it is literally right where I stopped drawing. As some of you might have noticed, I drew the southern portion of the line (from south of Forked River to the bottom of the page) AFTER I drew the northern portion of the line. That's why it looks so bad. But yeah, it's just a tick west of the GFS. The maps are colorful I think all the major models seem to have a landfall on the eastern shore of Jamaica Bay lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Down to 90 MPH cat 1...wonder if it will even make it up to NJ as a Hurricane? With the way it is looking on IR right now, I don't know how much longer it can hang on..it's basically a mess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Down to 90 MPH cat 1...wonder if it will even make it up to NJ as a Hurricane? With the way it is looking on IR right now, I don't know how much longer it can hang on..it's basically a mess.... I think by the time it gets to the nyc area- the most intense winds wil be in the 50-60mph range - maybe a few gusts to 70mph.. I don't see how it's any more than this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I think by the time it gets to the nyc area- the most intense winds wil be in the 50-60mph range - maybe a few gusts to 70mph.. I don't see how it's any more than this.... THe question is...how does this impact surge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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