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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II


earthlight

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Zoomed in graphics at wundermap have an LBI landfall at 36 hours on the Euro. Southeast winds are howling into NY Harbor at that hour.

And it's the new moon tide. . Who needs a Category 7? how about a borderline CAT 1. The destruction + The Humiliation all in one.

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I'm pretty confident the storm center remains towards our east. The worse affects will be rain and I am expected widespread flooding, much of which will be historic...we're probably talking about 8" of rainfall in an area that is already very saturated. If the storm stays as far east as my latest forecast, we could get some of the heaviest rain in the entire region, making a bad situation even worse...

as far as winds, sustained winds reach 40-60 MPH for a short time, so I don't think wind damage is a big issue.

Do you think that being at 360 feet makes any difference in wind speed? I am just concerned about my 80 foot trees. Thanks.

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Well hopefully it goes a little more east for NYC, because the euro track is ugly in terms of surge. I think a western LI track....even though it's not too far away, would be better for sure. I still think the euro is just a little too far west, but it got rid of the western solution is had 12 hrs ago. Anyways we'll see...maybe it does take that track.

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can you show the maps for 6-12z sunday?

Oops, I should have drawn boxes at those points. At 6z Sunday, it is JUST SE of Forked River. And at 12z Sunday, it is literally right where I stopped drawing.

As some of you might have noticed, I drew the southern portion of the line (from south of Forked River to the bottom of the page) AFTER I drew the northern portion of the line. :P That's why it looks so bad.

But yeah, it's just a tick west of the GFS.

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Sept. 3, 1821 Hurricane  Citywide

• Believed to pass directly over parts 

of New York City

• Tides rose 13 feet in one hour and 

caused the East River toconverge 

into the Hudson Riveracross lower 

Manhattanalong Canal Street

• No deaths reported 

Aug. 24, 1893 Hurricane  Citywide 

• Category 1 

• Destroyed Hog Island 

Oct. 10, 1894 Hurricane  Citywide  • Category 1 

Sept. 21, 1938 Hurricane  Citywide 

• Category 3 

• Most powerful hurricane to make 

landfall near New  York City 

• Eye crossed over Long Island

giving it its name, the Long Island

Express 

• Killed nearly 200 people total; 10 in 

New York City

• Electricity knocked out north of 

59th Streetin Manhattan 

• 100 large trees in Central Parkwere 

destroyed 

Aug. 30, 1954 

Hurricane 

Carol 

Citywide 

• Made landfall in eastern Long 

Island and SE Connecticut 

• Sustained winds more than 100 

mph and gusts 115 to 125 mph 

• Most destructive hurricane to hit the 

northeast coast since the 1938 

hurricane 

• Major flooding throughout the City 

Aug. 19, 1955 

Hurricanes 

Diane and 

Connie 

Citywide 

• Leftover rains from hurricanes 

dropped nearly 12 inches of rain at 

LaGuardia Airport 

• In just over one week, the remnants 

of 2 hurricanes passed over the 

City.  

Sept. 12, 1960 

Hurricane 

Donna 

Citywide 

• Created an 11-foot storm tide in 

New York Harbor and caused 

extensive pier damage 



June 22, 1972 

Tropical 

Storm Agnes 

Citywide 

• Agnes fused with another storm 

system in the northeastern U.S., 

flooding areas from North  Carolina 

to New York State 

• Caused 122 deaths 

• More than $6 billion in damage 

(when adjusted for inflation) 

Sept. 27, 1985 

Hurricane 

Gloria 

Citywide 

• Category 3 

• Made landfall on Long Islandat 80 

mph 

• Produced a modest storm surge of 

4-7 feet above normal across the 

Atlantic 

• Could have produced a much 

stronger and intense storm surge if 

it happened during high tide 

• Caused the largest single power loss 

in U.S.history at the time 

• Total damage estimated at $900 

million in 1986 

Dec. 21, 1992 Nor'easter  Citywide 

• Flooding and coastal erosion, debris 

• Damage to residential and 

commercial structures, utility lines, 

roads and other infrastructure 

June 17, 1995 

Hurricane Felix 

Citywide 

• Hurricane Felix lingered off the 

East Coast for nearly a week, 

menacing the northeastern U.S. 

before it finally drifted out to sea 

June 18, 1996 

Tropical 

Storm Bertha 

Citywide 

• Weakening storm brought heavy 

rain to the City 

Jan. 3, 1999 Nor'easter  Citywide 

• 2.42 inches of rain 

• 50-vehicle accident in Queens

Sept. 16, 1999 

Tropical 

Storm Floyd 

Citywide 

• Flooded subway tunnels across the 

City causing service disruptions 

• Dropped 10-15 inches of rain in a 

24-hour period 

• Public schools closed for the day 

Sept. 18, 2003 

Tropical 

Storm Isabel 

Brooklyn, 

Bronx, 

Queens, 

Staten Island 

• One fatality in the NY area – a man 

drowned while bodysurfing off 

Long Beach, Long Island 

• A fallen tree branch in the Bronx

seriously injured a man 

• 640 trees and 801 tree limbs were 

downed across the City 

• Total damage exceeded $1 billion 

along the East Coast

Apr. 15, 2007 Nor'easter  Citywide 

• More than 7.5 inches of rain in 

Central Park 

• More than 500 flights cancelled 

• Disrupted power to 18,500 

customers in three states

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about gloria

Sept. 27, 1985

Hurricane Gloria

Category 3

Made landfall on Long Islandat 80mph

Produced a modest storm surge of 4-7 feet above normal across the

Atlantic

Could have produced a much

stronger and intense storm surge if

it happened during high tide

Caused the largest single power loss

in U.S.history at the time

Total damage estimated at $900

million in 1986

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Do you think that being at 360 feet makes any difference in wind speed? I am just concerned about my 80 foot trees. Thanks.

that height doesn't make a whole lot of difference. what kind of trees, what shape are they in and how is the soil moisture in your area?

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that height doesn't make a whole lot of difference. what kind of trees, what shape are they in and how is the soil moisture in your area?

Soil moisture well we have had about ten inches of rain in the last few weeks. The trees are maple trees that are pretty healthy I think and then norwegian spruces that are not as healthy. They are all probably at least 80 years old. Thanks for replying.

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Well hopefully it goes a little more east for NYC, because the euro track is ugly in terms of surge. I think a western LI track....even though it's not too far away, would be better for sure. I still think the euro is just a little too far west, but it got rid of the western solution is had 12 hrs ago. Anyways we'll see...maybe it does take that track.

It looks like a combo of 1821 and 1893 track lol.

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Oops, I should have drawn boxes at those points. At 6z Sunday, it is JUST SE of Forked River. And at 12z Sunday, it is literally right where I stopped drawing.

As some of you might have noticed, I drew the southern portion of the line (from south of Forked River to the bottom of the page) AFTER I drew the northern portion of the line. :P That's why it looks so bad.

But yeah, it's just a tick west of the GFS.

The maps are colorful ;) I think all the major models seem to have a landfall on the eastern shore of Jamaica Bay lol.

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Down to 90 MPH cat 1...wonder if it will even make it up to NJ as a Hurricane? With the way it is looking on IR right now, I don't know how much longer it can hang on..it's basically a mess....

I think by the time it gets to the nyc area- the most intense winds wil be in the 50-60mph range - maybe a few gusts to 70mph.. I don't see how it's any more than this....

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