A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 wasn't the 12z euro thru CNJ? if this makes land-fall in NJ.... or rides up NY harbor, that pretty much puts the final touch on us seeing just about everything possible (weather-wise) in the last 2 years. We still haven't seen a megatsunami here-- maybe we will if an asteroid impacts just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Dew's are rising and pop showers occurring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looks like the euro is right over nyc on hr 36 or just to the south about to make landfall.. With tremendous rain for everyone. We are locked in, its game on from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looks like the euro is right over nyc on hr 36 or just to the south about to make landfall.. With tremendous rain for everyone. We are locked in, its game on from here on out. That makes something like 5 major models that have tracks within a few feet (inches) of each other. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Wow, very similar to Gloria. At least in that case it hit at low tide, in this case we have astronomical high tide between 8-11 AM Sunday Morning. We might not luck out this time Battery Park storm surge was 6.9' during Gloria...this storm has a larger wind field and more rain to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Is that rain band coming at us in the next several a PRE or is it the first of the bands of Irene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 The one thing that's incredible to watch is how the model guidance is struggling to reach consistency on timing. The 45 hr GFS forecast from 00z has the center of circulation Southern Vermont...while the 45 hr NAM forecast from 00z has the center of circulation near Yonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Battery Park storm surge was 6.9' during Gloria...this storm has a larger wind field and more rain to work with It may be the surge and rain that NYC has to worry about imo. I don't think winds will be the bigger story, unless this goes west of the city. Of course they will be nothing to sneeze at...just that there might be bigger issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Battery Park storm surge was 6.9' during Gloria...this storm has a larger wind field and more rain to work with Hey Quincy-- I am in Westchester and I see you are in Danbury. What do you think things will be like up here based on the models. I know this is a INBY question, but I thought I would still ask. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looks like the euro is right over nyc on hr 36 or just to the south about to make landfall.. With tremendous rain for everyone. We are locked in, its game on from here on out. That would be 8:00 am Sunday which is precisely high tide at New York Harbor. Lights out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It may be the surge and rain that NYC has to worry about imo. I don't think winds will be the bigger story, unless this goes west of the city. Of course they will be nothing to sneeze at...just that there might be bigger issues. this will probably top floyd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The one thing that's incredible to watch is how the model guidance is struggling to reach consistency on timing. The 45 hr GFS forecast from 00z has the center of circulation Southern Vermont...while the 45 hr NAM forecast from 00z has the center of circulation near Yonkers. euro has it over southern Vermont at 48. I'd probly go with the gfs/euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Yeah, the Euro has it just as fast as the GFS, if not even a tad faster....never thought I'd see that. Let's go with the Euro/GFS on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Hey Quincy-- I am in Westchester and I see you are in Danbury. What do you think things will be like up here based on the models. I know this is a INBY question, but I thought I would still ask. Thanks. I'm pretty confident the storm center remains towards our east. The worse affects will be rain and I am expected widespread flooding, much of which will be historic...we're probably talking about 8" of rainfall in an area that is already very saturated. If the storm stays as far east as my latest forecast, we could get some of the heaviest rain in the entire region, making a bad situation even worse... as far as winds, sustained winds reach 40-60 MPH for a short time, so I don't think wind damage is a big issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 this will probably top floyd Rains just to the nw of the track will be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Yeah, the Euro has it just as fast as the GFS, if not even a tad faster....never thought I'd see that. Let's go with the Euro/GFS on this one. which means a nyc area landfall around the time of high tide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 That would be 8:00 am Sunday which is precisely high tide at New York Harbor. Lights out. I don't have a model in front of me, but I would assume this could equate to a storm surge of 10'+ for parts of Manhattan..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 which means a nyc area landfall around the time of high tide When is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Rains just to the nw of the track will be insane. i love the jet pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 ggem is over c-nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 When is that? ~8 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 Zoomed in graphics at wundermap have an LBI landfall at 36 hours on the Euro. Southeast winds are howling into NY Harbor at that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm trying to get my hands on a satellite loop to easily distinguish the past and present track, but I am 99% confident that the model consensus is TOO FAR WEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 When is that? 36 hr Euro has the storm over Long Beach Island NJ...at exactly high tide in NY Harbor..8:00am Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 When is that? sunday AM http://freetidetables.com/state/New%20York/sid/94839cff <div><br></div><div><br></div><div>http://freetidetables.com/sid/25577eb1/tides_graph_mon</div><div><br></div> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Yeah, the Euro has it just as fast as the GFS, if not even a tad faster....never thought I'd see that. Let's go with the Euro/GFS on this one. Close to the same landfall point as before? You should make one of your patented detailed maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Traveling right now from Scranton to the jersey shore...remarkable is the humidity increase over the last ten miles. Currently in the lehigh valley. Amazing amount of traffic westbound on 78 right now. I'm just fascinated by this sudden change of airmass. Could a pro weigh in on this please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 this is only given the first and last frame of the latest NWS radar image. I'll put together a longer duration plot in a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm trying to get my hands on a satellite loop to easily distinguish the past and present track, but I am 99% confident that the model consensus is TOO FAR WEST. I'm curious as to the thinking behind this...I have limited knowledge, and can really go on what the models say and what mets on here say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Wow, this is the real deal. WInds, lots of rain, but most importantly, a dangerous surge potential emerging. Anyone know a webcam of the NY Harbour? or is Jim Cantore going to be at Battery Park? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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