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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II


earthlight

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wasn't the 12z euro thru CNJ?

if this makes land-fall in NJ.... or rides up NY harbor, that pretty much puts the final touch on us seeing just about everything possible (weather-wise) in the last 2 years.

We still haven't seen a megatsunami here-- maybe we will if an asteroid impacts just offshore.

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Looks like the euro is right over nyc on hr 36 or just to the south about to make landfall.. With tremendous rain for everyone. We are locked in, its game on from here on out.

That makes something like 5 major models that have tracks within a few feet (inches) of each other. Amazing.

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Wow, very similar to Gloria. At least in that case it hit at low tide, in this case we have astronomical high tide between 8-11 AM Sunday Morning. We might not luck out this time :(

Battery Park storm surge was 6.9' during Gloria...this storm has a larger wind field and more rain to work with :(

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Battery Park storm surge was 6.9' during Gloria...this storm has a larger wind field and more rain to work with :(

It may be the surge and rain that NYC has to worry about imo. I don't think winds will be the bigger story, unless this goes west of the city. Of course they will be nothing to sneeze at...just that there might be bigger issues.

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Battery Park storm surge was 6.9' during Gloria...this storm has a larger wind field and more rain to work with :(

Hey Quincy-- I am in Westchester and I see you are in Danbury. What do you think things will be like up here based on the models. I know this is a INBY question, but I thought I would still ask. Thanks.

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Looks like the euro is right over nyc on hr 36 or just to the south about to make landfall.. With tremendous rain for everyone. We are locked in, its game on from here on out.

That would be 8:00 am Sunday which is precisely high tide at New York Harbor. Lights out.

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It may be the surge and rain that NYC has to worry about imo. I don't think winds will be the bigger story, unless this goes west of the city. Of course they will be nothing to sneeze at...just that there might be bigger issues.

this will probably top floyd

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The one thing that's incredible to watch is how the model guidance is struggling to reach consistency on timing. The 45 hr GFS forecast from 00z has the center of circulation Southern Vermont...while the 45 hr NAM forecast from 00z has the center of circulation near Yonkers.

euro has it over southern Vermont at 48. I'd probly go with the gfs/euro

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Hey Quincy-- I am in Westchester and I see you are in Danbury. What do you think things will be like up here based on the models. I know this is a INBY question, but I thought I would still ask. Thanks.

I'm pretty confident the storm center remains towards our east. The worse affects will be rain and I am expected widespread flooding, much of which will be historic...we're probably talking about 8" of rainfall in an area that is already very saturated. If the storm stays as far east as my latest forecast, we could get some of the heaviest rain in the entire region, making a bad situation even worse...

as far as winds, sustained winds reach 40-60 MPH for a short time, so I don't think wind damage is a big issue.

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Yeah, the Euro has it just as fast as the GFS, if not even a tad faster....never thought I'd see that. Let's go with the Euro/GFS on this one.

Close to the same landfall point as before? You should make one of your patented detailed maps :P

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