SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 LOL Tony, that looks like it's tracking it over N NJ Those b&w maps are very deceiving, lets wait till the better maps come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 LOL Tony, that looks like it's tracking it over N NJ Strange looking track. Are you going to evacuate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Our house was a very,very,very, nice house with two cats in the yard their not their anymore ,alex were in the same boat regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 RGEM http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The GGEM looks like the GFS to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The GGEM looks like the GFS to me. Looks a shade west, but we'll see on the better maps fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Those b&w maps are very deceiving, lets wait till the better maps come out. 1am advisory has the position to 33.1°N 76.5°W a sizable jump westward I guess we are going to get those rare 2 hour intermediate advisories now? Been awhile since we saw those lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 RGEM is a real problem for the harbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm seeing the NNE motion now, and I can't help thinking this will make a final east push and make landfall further east on LI. How many times have we seen a hurricane suddenly switch back to a N and then NNE track? I think bottom line is, many of us here on LI will receive massive impacts. The timing of this looks very bad too. If this makes a 12z approach to us, it will be right during the moon-enhanced high tide. I've honestly almost completely given up on that scenario. This storm is going to pass very close to us, and probably just to our west. I don't think it'll get sucked into Central Jersey, but I think a track like the GFS makes a lot of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 At this rate, we'll barely be able to see the crown and torch of the Statue of Liberty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I've honestly almost completely given up on that scenario. This storm is going to pass very close to us, and probably just to our west. I don't think it'll get sucked into Central Jersey, but I think a track like the GFS makes a lot of sense. Bastardi's update at 11:45 pm says track will be from NC outer banks, to Cape May NJ, to Princeton NJ by 2:00 pm Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I've honestly almost completely given up on that scenario. This storm is going to pass very close to us, and probably just to our west. I don't think it'll get sucked into Central Jersey, but I think a track like the GFS makes a lot of sense. It's the weirdest scenario to talk about a storm just barely skimming that part of the Jersey Shore. And with the huge size of the storm, I think we wont see it go below hurricane status in our area. Perhaps a minimal hurricane, but a hurricane nonetheless. A storm that huge has a significant part of its circulation over the water even if the eye is just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Strange looking track. Are you going to evacuate? No lol. I want to experience this. You, Doug and Nate (if he is still around) need to add my new AIM it's UCANTEVERIMAGINE I cant use my old one because after I reformatted I forgot my password and couldn't recover it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It's the weirdest scenario to talk about a storm just barely skimming that part of the Jersey Shore. And with the huge size of the storm, I think we wont see it go below hurricane status in our area. Perhaps a minimal hurricane, but a hurricane nonetheless. A storm that huge has a significant part of its circulation over the water even if the eye is just inland. VERY similar to Gloria, although Irene may hit NC a bit further to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeTwentyFour Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I've never seen people prepare for a storm like this. Its strange to see half the stores in my shopping center boarded up. Does it still like like it will be a Cat1 when it comes up to our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 outer bands already kissing Ocean City, MD and will be in the garden state within the next 3 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 VERY similar to Gloria, although Irene may hit NC a bit further to the west How does this compare with Gloria in terms of wind radii? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Bastardi's update at 11:45 pm says track will be from NC outer banks, to Cape May NJ, to Princeton NJ by 2:00 pm Sunday. Bastardi's Twitter Page = Waste of Bandwidth. Apparently, he was slamming NHC this morning while predicting a massive RI episode and a min pressure of 930 mb. I admire the guy's passion, but I seriously think his cheese has slid off his cracker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm seeing the NNE motion now, and I can't help thinking this will make a final east push and make landfall further east on LI. How many times have we seen a hurricane suddenly switch back to a N and then NNE track? I think bottom line is, many of us here on LI will receive massive impacts. The timing of this looks very bad too. If this makes a 12z approach to us, it will be right during the moon-enhanced high tide. not this time. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/avnloopnew.html mouse over the 30 to 48 hour panels and pay attention to the 500 mb height pattern near the upper right corner. the ridge builds west at the same time the hurricane comes north, pushing it into the new york bight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Prniceton NJ???..I don't think so, I will be shocked if it goes that far west, no model is showing that. Bastardi's update at 11:45 pm says track will be from NC outer banks, to Cape May NJ, to Princeton NJ by 2:00 pm Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 LMAO! Bastardi's Twitter Page = Waste of Bandwidth. Apparently, he was slamming NHC this morning while predicting a massive RI episode and a min pressure of 930 mb. I admire the guy's passion, but I seriously think his cheese has slid off his cracker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Prniceton NJ???..I don't think so, I will be shocked if it goes that far west, no model is showing that. Actually, the GGEM may be showing something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I have a question. Even though I most likely will be on the left side of the center and GFS is calling for 40 Knot winds over me. Does that mean that Hurricane force winds will not happen? I am just concerned due to the fact that I have many 80 ft tall trees all around my house. Will the fact that I am at 360 ft also increase winds. Thanks. -------------------- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Bastardi's Twitter Page = Waste of Bandwidth. Apparently, he was slamming NHC this morning while predicting a massive RI episode and a min pressure of 930 mb. I admire the guy's passion, but I seriously think his cheese has slid off his cracker. I was watching him on FNC for fun earlier and he seemed like a major creeper...not impressed at all...mega-hyping as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 not sure if it was posted ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Prniceton NJ???..I don't think so, I will be shocked if it goes that far west, no model is showing that. wasn't the 12z euro thru CNJ? if this makes land-fall in NJ.... or rides up NY harbor, that pretty much puts the final touch on us seeing just about everything possible (weather-wise) in the last 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 VERY similar to Gloria, although Irene may hit NC a bit further to the west Wow, very similar to Gloria. At least in that case it hit at low tide, in this case we have astronomical high tide between 8-11 AM Sunday Morning. We might not luck out this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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