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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II


earthlight

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Those b&w maps are very deceiving, lets wait till the better maps come out.

1am advisory has the position to 33.1°N 76.5°W a sizable jump westward

I guess we are going to get those rare 2 hour intermediate advisories now? Been awhile since we saw those lol.

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I'm seeing the NNE motion now, and I can't help thinking this will make a final east push and make landfall further east on LI. How many times have we seen a hurricane suddenly switch back to a N and then NNE track?

I think bottom line is, many of us here on LI will receive massive impacts. The timing of this looks very bad too. If this makes a 12z approach to us, it will be right during the moon-enhanced high tide.

I've honestly almost completely given up on that scenario. This storm is going to pass very close to us, and probably just to our west. I don't think it'll get sucked into Central Jersey, but I think a track like the GFS makes a lot of sense.

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I've honestly almost completely given up on that scenario. This storm is going to pass very close to us, and probably just to our west. I don't think it'll get sucked into Central Jersey, but I think a track like the GFS makes a lot of sense.

Bastardi's update at 11:45 pm says track will be from NC outer banks, to Cape May NJ, to Princeton NJ by 2:00 pm Sunday.

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I've honestly almost completely given up on that scenario. This storm is going to pass very close to us, and probably just to our west. I don't think it'll get sucked into Central Jersey, but I think a track like the GFS makes a lot of sense.

It's the weirdest scenario to talk about a storm just barely skimming that part of the Jersey Shore. And with the huge size of the storm, I think we wont see it go below hurricane status in our area. Perhaps a minimal hurricane, but a hurricane nonetheless. A storm that huge has a significant part of its circulation over the water even if the eye is just inland.

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Strange looking track. Are you going to evacuate?

No lol. I want to experience this.

You, Doug and Nate (if he is still around) need to add my new AIM it's UCANTEVERIMAGINE I cant use my old one because after I reformatted I forgot my password and couldn't recover it.

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It's the weirdest scenario to talk about a storm just barely skimming that part of the Jersey Shore. And with the huge size of the storm, I think we wont see it go below hurricane status in our area. Perhaps a minimal hurricane, but a hurricane nonetheless. A storm that huge has a significant part of its circulation over the water even if the eye is just inland.

VERY similar to Gloria, although Irene may hit NC a bit further to the west

post-533-0-84851100-1314423251.gif

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Bastardi's update at 11:45 pm says track will be from NC outer banks, to Cape May NJ, to Princeton NJ by 2:00 pm Sunday.

Bastardi's Twitter Page = Waste of Bandwidth. Apparently, he was slamming NHC this morning while predicting a massive RI episode and a min pressure of 930 mb. I admire the guy's passion, but I seriously think his cheese has slid off his cracker.

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I'm seeing the NNE motion now, and I can't help thinking this will make a final east push and make landfall further east on LI. How many times have we seen a hurricane suddenly switch back to a N and then NNE track?

I think bottom line is, many of us here on LI will receive massive impacts. The timing of this looks very bad too. If this makes a 12z approach to us, it will be right during the moon-enhanced high tide.

not this time.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/avnloopnew.html

mouse over the 30 to 48 hour panels and pay attention to the 500 mb height pattern near the upper right corner. the ridge builds west at the same time the hurricane comes north, pushing it into the new york bight

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I have a question. Even though I most likely will be on the left side of the center and GFS is calling for 40 Knot winds over me. Does that mean that Hurricane force winds will not happen? I am just concerned due to the fact that I have many 80 ft tall trees all around my house. Will the fact that I am at 360 ft also increase winds. Thanks.

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Bastardi's Twitter Page = Waste of Bandwidth. Apparently, he was slamming NHC this morning while predicting a massive RI episode and a min pressure of 930 mb. I admire the guy's passion, but I seriously think his cheese has slid off his cracker.

I was watching him on FNC for fun earlier and he seemed like a major creeper...not impressed at all...mega-hyping as usual

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VERY similar to Gloria, although Irene may hit NC a bit further to the west

Wow, very similar to Gloria. At least in that case it hit at low tide, in this case we have astronomical high tide between 8-11 AM Sunday Morning. We might not luck out this time :(

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