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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II


earthlight

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The 00z GFS basically confirms the new NHC track on a central-western LI landfall. The consistency has been great.

Maybe your eyes are better than mine. Looks to me like it rides right over NYC. Not certain of that. However, at hour 42 it looks like it's on the northwest CT / NY border. That spot would be pretty difficult to be located at if Irene tracked over central-western LI.

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Maybe your eyes are better than mine. Looks to me like it rides right over NYC. Not certain of that. However, at hour 42 it looks like it's on the northwest CT / NY border. That spot would be pretty difficult to be located at if Irene tracked over central-western LI.

I'll post the close-up Wunderground wundermap track in a few minutes.

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PLEASE remember, models are not to be trusted for their qpf output. They can often be off by a lot. So in something like this, where the PW values are close to 3", the models may be on the low side with their qpf. Can't forget the TOR threat for LI too. I see a TOR watch being posted easily in this setup on late SAT into SUN.

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PLEASE remember, models are not to be trusted for their qpf output. They can often be off by a lot. So in something like this, where the PW values are close to 3", the models may be on the low side with their qpf. Can't forget the TOR threat for LI too. I see a TOR watch being posted easily in this setup on late SAT into SUN.

yes I agree, and alot of us will be sleeping through it

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Maybe your eyes are better than mine. Looks to me like it rides right over NYC. Not certain of that. However, at hour 42 it looks like it's on the northwest CT / NY border. That spot would be pretty difficult to be located at if Irene tracked over central-western LI.

Landfall looks to be around Toms River or Belmar NJ

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Wow, Doug, it's amazing the consistency of these tracks lol. This looks like the NAM and Euro.

Horrible track for surge for many of us, and particularly if the GFS timing is right, meaning early Sunday morning. Plenty of time to fetch in water from the easterly flow, and pile it up as Irene comes in. Forget the rainfall amounts, that's almost irrelevant for us coastal residents.

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Horrible track for surge for many of us, and particularly if the GFS timing is right, meaning early Sunday morning. Plenty of time to fetch in water from the easterly flow, and pile it up as Irene comes in. Forget the rainfall amounts, that's almost irrelevant for us coastal residents.

I can't believe we might be in the right front quadrant. I might try to take a drive down to Long Beach, but that might be impossible to access...

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I can't believe we might be in the right front quadrant. I might try to take a drive down to Long Beach, but that might be impossible to access...

I'm seeing the NNE motion now, and I can't help thinking this will make a final east push and make landfall further east on LI. How many times have we seen a hurricane suddenly switch back to a N and then NNE track?

I think bottom line is, many of us here on LI will receive massive impacts. The timing of this looks very bad too. If this makes a 12z approach to us, it will be right during the moon-enhanced high tide.

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Horrible track for surge for many of us, and particularly if the GFS timing is right, meaning early Sunday morning. Plenty of time to fetch in water from the easterly flow, and pile it up as Irene comes in. Forget the rainfall amounts, that's almost irrelevant for us coastal residents.

I cant believe we're actually going to relive some of those great 1800s storms. NHC has it still as a 80 mph hurricane in our area.

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I'm seeing the NNE motion now, and I can't help thinking this will make a final east push and make landfall further east on LI. How many times have we seen a hurricane suddenly switch back to a N and then NNE track?

I think bottom line is, many of us here on LI will receive massive impacts. The timing of this looks very bad too. If this makes a 12z approach to us, it will be right during the moon-enhanced high tide.

I think it's just a wobble, most of the models have it bending back further to the west when it gets a bit further north-- that ridge must be flexing its muscles. I believe some of the great canes did something similar.

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