IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Don't pay too much attention to the GFS QPF output, or even the NAM's for that matter, fact of the matter is, 10"+ is very likely in certain spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 and we were talking about 10+ a few hours ago. I believe the gfs speed of the system keeps rainfall below 10....... In eastern NC there has already been 3-4 inches of rain...and with the t-storms im sure it really adding up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 21z sref mean is sim to the NAM. no wonder tho, it has so many NAM members in it. lol. has a good 6-8 inches of qpf over NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 my rule of thumb with any tropical system is at least 5-10 inches of qpf, with isolated 20 inches in spots. It always seems to work out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 and we were talking about 10+ a few hours ago. lol the gfs QPF output is in general and not precise by any means. Banding, training storms, etc will all determine who gets 10"+.. And i think most of the area gets to atleast there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The 00z GFS basically confirms the new NHC track on a central-western LI landfall. The consistency has been great. Maybe your eyes are better than mine. Looks to me like it rides right over NYC. Not certain of that. However, at hour 42 it looks like it's on the northwest CT / NY border. That spot would be pretty difficult to be located at if Irene tracked over central-western LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Maybe your eyes are better than mine. Looks to me like it rides right over NYC. Not certain of that. However, at hour 42 it looks like it's on the northwest CT / NY border. That spot would be pretty difficult to be located at if Irene tracked over central-western LI. I'll post the close-up Wunderground wundermap track in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 PLEASE remember, models are not to be trusted for their qpf output. They can often be off by a lot. So in something like this, where the PW values are close to 3", the models may be on the low side with their qpf. Can't forget the TOR threat for LI too. I see a TOR watch being posted easily in this setup on late SAT into SUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 PLEASE remember, models are not to be trusted for their qpf output. They can often be off by a lot. So in something like this, where the PW values are close to 3", the models may be on the low side with their qpf. Can't forget the TOR threat for LI too. I see a TOR watch being posted easily in this setup on late SAT into SUN. yes I agree, and alot of us will be sleeping through it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Based on radar, anyone think a PRE might be starting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 0z GFS track: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 00z gfs pretty far W of the prev runs. fwiw Looks like the NHC track is a very high confidence one. Landfall Belmar or Long Beach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Wow, Doug, it's amazing the consistency of these tracks lol. This looks like the NAM and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Maybe your eyes are better than mine. Looks to me like it rides right over NYC. Not certain of that. However, at hour 42 it looks like it's on the northwest CT / NY border. That spot would be pretty difficult to be located at if Irene tracked over central-western LI. Landfall looks to be around Toms River or Belmar NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Wow, Doug, it's amazing the consistency of these tracks lol. This looks like the NAM and Euro. Horrible track for surge for many of us, and particularly if the GFS timing is right, meaning early Sunday morning. Plenty of time to fetch in water from the easterly flow, and pile it up as Irene comes in. Forget the rainfall amounts, that's almost irrelevant for us coastal residents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Landfall looks to be around Toms River or Belmar NJ Would have to believe that track comes with a pretty devastating tidal surge in New York Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I have said in other threads in the main forum that the eye goes right over NYC with the right front quad over LI where they get smashed. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I have said in other threads in the main forum that the eye goes right over NYC with the right front quad over LI where they get smashed. We'll see. Eastern Queens gets smashed too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Horrible track for surge for many of us, and particularly if the GFS timing is right, meaning early Sunday morning. Plenty of time to fetch in water from the easterly flow, and pile it up as Irene comes in. Forget the rainfall amounts, that's almost irrelevant for us coastal residents. I can't believe we might be in the right front quadrant. I might try to take a drive down to Long Beach, but that might be impossible to access... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Would have to believe that track comes with a pretty devastating tidal surge in New York Harbor. It also looks a hell of a lot like previous Euro tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I can't believe we might be in the right front quadrant. I might try to take a drive down to Long Beach, but that might be impossible to access... I'm seeing the NNE motion now, and I can't help thinking this will make a final east push and make landfall further east on LI. How many times have we seen a hurricane suddenly switch back to a N and then NNE track? I think bottom line is, many of us here on LI will receive massive impacts. The timing of this looks very bad too. If this makes a 12z approach to us, it will be right during the moon-enhanced high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Horrible track for surge for many of us, and particularly if the GFS timing is right, meaning early Sunday morning. Plenty of time to fetch in water from the easterly flow, and pile it up as Irene comes in. Forget the rainfall amounts, that's almost irrelevant for us coastal residents. I cant believe we're actually going to relive some of those great 1800s storms. NHC has it still as a 80 mph hurricane in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm seeing the NNE motion now, and I can't help thinking this will make a final east push and make landfall further east on LI. How many times have we seen a hurricane suddenly switch back to a N and then NNE track? I think bottom line is, many of us here on LI will receive massive impacts. The timing of this looks very bad too. If this makes a 12z approach to us, it will be right during the moon-enhanced high tide. I think it's just a wobble, most of the models have it bending back further to the west when it gets a bit further north-- that ridge must be flexing its muscles. I believe some of the great canes did something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I wonder if we'll get the NWS forecasted winds for us..... sustained 50-70 with gusts to 85, surge of 4-8 feet and heh 8-12+ inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 0z GFS track: Any Idea on the strength when it comes into NY area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Well now on radar and IR, Irene has resumed a NNE motion. The wobble NE was well, just a wobble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 oy vay thats all i have pretty speechless generator,water, meds,my boat rain suit, loads of water plenty of gas check lets rock and not get electricuted LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Add the GGEM to NYC/-W-LI track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 LOL Tony, that looks like it's tracking it over N NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Thats over my house its been that way for a while batten down the hatches see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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