LocoAko Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 what model and where? lol, pretty sure that's the official NHC forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 39.8N 74.0WMAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 45NW.50 KT...140NE 125SE 80SW 60NW.34 KT...250NE 225SE 140SW 125NW. That is literally right on the Jersey Shore east of Philly/Trenton. ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Bob's track was WELL east of what we are dealing with and Gloria was moving more quickly. I'm aware of that. And roads and bridges were not closed where Bob tracked. The notion that Irene is going to crawl as she moves up here I find ridiculous too. What makes you think that Irene isn't going to accelerate as almost every tropical system does as they move n-ward? In fact, several of the better model runs have clearly hinted at that it I would be amazed if she doesn't dramatically pick up forward speed once passed NC. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm aware of that. And roads and bridges were not closed where Bob tracked. The notion that Irene is going to crawl as she moves up here I find ridiculous too. What makes you think that Irene isn't going to accelerate as almost every tropical system does as they move n-ward? In fact, several of the better model runs have clearly hinted at that it I would be amazed if she doesn't dramatically pick up forward speed once passed NC. WX/PT Of course she'll accelerate but this is an enormous storm we are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Of course she'll accelerate but this is an enormous storm we are talking about. Yeah, plus she won't accelerate as much as past storms, including Gloria did. So the bad conditions will last longer than they have in previous cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm aware of that. And roads and bridges were not closed where Bob tracked. The notion that Irene is going to crawl as she moves up here I find ridiculous too. What makes you think that Irene isn't going to accelerate as almost every tropical system does as they move n-ward? In fact, several of the better model runs have clearly hinted at that it I would be amazed if she doesn't dramatically pick up forward speed once passed NC. WX/PT The quicker it comes the better, right now the center is still close to high tide times for most spots, if it can accelerate 3-4 more hours with the hard core surge arriving 3-4am we could escape with a slack tide arrival vs high....I do think it will move quite fast, usually these are at least 25 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 I have no doubt that you are in many ways correct, but this is not going to cause flooding and devestation for everyone. WX/PT Agreed. Pretty much the case for all tropical systems in our area historically. Widespread blanket type damage doesn't typically occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The quicker it comes the better, right now the center is still close to high tide times for most spots, if it can accelerate 3-4 more hours with the hard core surge arriving 3-4am we could escape with a slack tide arrival vs high....I do think it will move quite fast, usually these are at least 25 mph. All the tolls on 95 should slow her down quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 All the tolls on 95 should slow her down quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Building quite a surge and waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The quicker it comes the better, right now the center is still close to high tide times for most spots, if it can accelerate 3-4 more hours with the hard core surge arriving 3-4am we could escape with a slack tide arrival vs high....I do think it will move quite fast, usually these are at least 25 mph. Yeah-I don't buy the NAM's arrival time at 1-2pm for a second. My fear is it arrives around daybreak to 8am Sunday with the new moon enhanced high tide tacking on several more feet to the surge. That could really be devastating for perhaps over a million people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 this is not going to cause flooding and devestation for everyone. It's going to be hit and miss whether a tree falls on one person's house and not another's. my fear is an unprecedented loss of power (in pure numbers of people), and the added delay that would cause in restoring power. a lot of people may be without power for many days.... and that sucks big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 years ago we didn't have 250,000 t.v channels and a gov 3x the size to wakeup your father seeesh whatever happened to andy and opie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It's pretty much common sense to see that a track right up the NJ coast is devastating for NYC with the surge. Prolonged period of 60-80 mph winds piling up water into the harbor = major coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 First rain drops are falling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 http://www.daculawea...torm_mode_2.php You can see Irene's eyewall on this radar loop clearly. Looks like it is getting more defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Last few frames looks like Irene jumped NE. Maybe just a wobble.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Tornadoes already being reported in eastern NC....I wonder if that will become a threat here, but multiple cells with rotation are appearing down there. And it begins.... Mostly cloudy 72.8/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 RGEM is a monster...right into the harbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 News 7 said..if you leave on 10th floor > to go lower floors.. because for example a 60mph wind on a 10th floor..is a 112mph on a 20th floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 News 7 said..if you leave on 10th floor > to go lower floors.. because for example a 60mph wind on a 10th floor..is a 112mph on a 20th floor. It applies more to NYC due to the number of and close proximity of > 10 story skyscrapers next to each other. Areas like ours along the cliffs in New Jersey that have skyscrapers will not have this sensation as much I think as the skyscrapers are further apart, are less in number and will feature less of a funneling effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Last few frames looks like Irene jumped NE. Maybe just a wobble.. Agreed. Looks to be heading at or just east of Cape Lookout now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 hr 27 gfs is just east of norfolk.....very impressive with the rain ahead of the system hr 30 just east of the delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 A note on the 1938 hurricane In all, 600 people died. Ten of those deaths were in New York City. Flooding knocked out electrical power in all areas above 59th Street in Manhattan and in all of the Bronx. A hundred large trees in Central Park were destroyed.Over a four-day period, the 1938 storm dropped an average of 11 inches of rain over a 10,000-square-mile area, according to the National Weather Service. Flooding inflicted major damage through Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, and Vermont, causing more than $300 million in losses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 hr 36 brushing the nj shore 4-5 inches of rain has fallen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 00z gfs pretty far W of the prev runs. fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 hr 39 makes landfall in western LI.... hr 42 into central ct 6-7 inches of rain for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 hr 36 brushing the nj shore 4-5 inches of rain has fallen Again, horrific timing for the high tide cycle here if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 hr 39 makes landfall in western LI.... hr 42 into central ct 6-7 inches of rain for the area and we were talking about 10+ a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The 00z GFS basically confirms the new NHC track on a central-western LI landfall. The consistency has been great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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