Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II

[Stormlover74]

NAM has 4 to 5" on LI and 6 to 8 city and N&W

how does the rain look? iknow the 18z had cut some of it down

[TheTrials]

On twister data, all of northern NJ and NYC are exceeding the rainfall scale of 9". So looks like 10"+ on the nam

yeah, 10 inches from the sky, a few feet from the ocean, yuck.

[SnowGoose69]

The one differentiator continues to be the timing. GFS at 12z Sunday is already almost to NYC, NAM is still south of Cape May. That could make a big difference as to high/low tide impacts here. I would still favor the faster models as hurricanes often accelerate as they head up this way.

The NAM often has a slow bias advancing systems of all sorts into this area so I'd believe its slow on this as well,

[earthlight]

The soil moisture is incredibly concerning...given the strength of the low pressure system nearby and the winds expected (think about winds mixing down in convection as well)...could be a real issue.

[SACRUS]

max I see is ~10"

yeah 6 - 10

[Stormlover74]

Yeah Steve D mentioned this as well , says 110+ likely

Anthony/metfan/snow88 reports that he saw on CNN Hurricane hunter reported 120 mph winds somewhere in the storm. I cannot verify this, so take it FWIW, but he wanted you all to know, and if he/they is right, thats awesome.

[Dsnowx53]

Ray Martin (famartin) said that the NAM initialized .2 degrees too far west.

[JSantanaNYC]

Looking at the nam track I actually expected to see more rain..

[wxman]

Ray Martin (famartin) said that the NAM initialized .2 degrees too far west.

I really wish the NY/PHL forums were still combined, oh well.

[TheTrials]

Ray Martin (famartin) said that the NAM initialized .2 degrees too far west.

they only way to verify that is to have the 0z satelite snap shot, not the one now two hours later.

Also, you have the curviture of the earth vs. a flat map. It matters.

[bluewave]

How many feet above normal will the storm surge be for the south shore of Suffolk county?

You can keep updating this map and the models to see how closely the peak surge coincides with local high tide.

As we get closer to the event you can also keep monitoring the local tide gauges for the current tide levels.

http://www.weather.g...=e10&Th=10&Z=z7

http://tidesandcurre...x.shtml?port=ny

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ny/nwis/uv/?site_no=01309225

[SnowGoose69]

not sure why everyone is claiming victory for the ECMWF just yet. even if the storm does hug the coast, the EC was one of the few models that was consistently OFF and by that I mean too far west.

current satellite looks like the center is trending just east of the OFCL track

The NAM again has resumed that due north motion after it passes north of VA, I continue to be baffled as to what is inducing that, I don't see anything over the Lakes region or OH Valley strong enough to cause that,I still refuse to budge from the idea this is going to come in east of where most of the models have it coming in. I may go down in flames with it but the fact this thing is already deviating somewhat from where it should be makes me feel somewhat good.

[jm1220]

The NAM again has resumed that due north motion after it passes north of VA, I continue to be baffled as to what is inducing that, I don't see anything over the Lakes region or OH Valley strong enough to cause that,I still refuse to budge from the idea this is going to come in east of where most of the models have it coming in. I may go down in flames with it but the fact this thing is already deviating somewhat from where it should be makes me feel somewhat good.

I agree-I still favor somewhat a central or eastern LI landfall as opposed to here or west. It just seems so unlikely to me-although storms have done it before, so it certainly is possible. If Irene goes NNE from this point on, it should be a Suffolk County landfall.

[earthlight]

The exact track is important but I think the severity of this storm may actually exceed our expectations in areal coverage. Tropical storm force winds extend 250 miles away from the center of the storm. This is going to be an incredibly high impact storm system in our area, at this point there is very little way around that.

[CooL]

The NAM again has resumed that due north motion after it passes north of VA, I continue to be baffled as to what is inducing that, I don't see anything over the Lakes region or OH Valley strong enough to cause that,I still refuse to budge from the idea this is going to come in east of where most of the models have it coming in. I may go down in flames with it but the fact this thing is already deviating somewhat from where it should be makes me feel somewhat good.

pretty much every model has it going into central LI or west of that. So there has to be something they're seeing that you're not. I think its more of that the storm is getting squeezed by the atlantic ridge, which helps it slide more northward.

[jm1220]

The exact track is important but I think the severity of this storm may actually exceed our expectations in areal coverage. Tropical storm force winds extend 250 miles away from the center of the storm. This is going to be an incredibly high impact storm system in our area, at this point there is very little way around that.

Having TS force winds for so long a time is also a huge factor. Even in the 3/13/2010 noreaster here we only had those kind of winds for 6-8 hours or so, and then it shut off, with mostly defoliated trees. Having 50-70 mph winds for maybe 18 hours will be much more damaging for more folks. Also, most not near the immediate coast didn't experience those 75 mph wind gusts on 3/13/10-honestly, it got scary for a good while. Transformers and power lines flashed and dropped all over the place, and the tree damage was massive. And we didn't have the water damage we almost certainly will with Irene.

[TheTrials]

[KEITH L.I]

up NY harbor..wow!.

[sferic]

I'm riding this out in Liberty NY in Sullivan County in the Catskills, I know it'll be windy here perhaps up to 50MPH or so, but will rainfall or elevation make a difference and what do the maps print out in QPF here?

[Wxoutlooksblog]

The exact track is important but I think the severity of this storm may actually exceed our expectations in areal coverage. Tropical storm force winds extend 250 miles away from the center of the storm. This is going to be an incredibly high impact storm system in our area, at this point there is very little way around that.

I have no doubt that you are in many ways correct, but this is not going to cause flooding and devestation for everyone. It's going to be hit and miss whether a tree falls on one person's house and not another's. Also, I do not expect everybody to see a hurricane force wind or gust. There will be those who do (many) most of whom will be on south facing shores of Long Island and east facing shores of NJ, a few on other parts of Long Island. Irene has been an underperformer thus far and actually, I have no reason to believe that she's suddenly going to tear the house down up here while she's been weaker than forecasted well to our south over much warmer friendlier ocean waters. But many folks will suffer major flooding both from the rain and the storm surge. Trees will come down but not everywhere. It will be mess.

But what they did in terms of closing the roadways and MTA tomorrow at starting at noon was extreme and ridiculous and could cause panic. I do not think this storm will be any more historic than Gloria, Bob, or Bell---storms for which no such measures were taken if I recall correctly. What do they do for a CAT 3 or 4?

WX/PT

[Dan76]

No leaves on the trees in march around these parts.

[Juliancolton]

I have no doubt that you are in many ways correct, but this is not going to cause flooding and devestation for everyone. It's going to be hit and miss whether a tree falls on one person's house and not another's. Also, I do not expect everybody to see a hurricane force wind or gust. There will be those who do (many) most of whom will be on south facing shores of Long Island and east facing shores of NJ, a few on other parts of Long Island. Irene has been an underperformer thus far and actually, I have no reason to believe that she's suddenly going to tear the house down up here while she's been weaker than forecasted well to our south over much warmer friendlier ocean waters. But many folks will suffer major flooding both from the rain and the storm surge. Trees will come down but not everywhere. It will be mess.

But what they did in terms of closing the roadways and MTA tomorrow at starting at noon was extreme and ridiculous and could cause panic. I do not think this storm will be any more historic than Gloria, Bob, or Bell---storms for which no such measures were taken if I recall correctly. What do they do for a CAT 3 or 4?

WX/PT

Bob and Belle really can't be compared. There's a lot of middle ground between being more noteworthy than Belle and being worse than Bob.

[KEITH L.I]

I have no doubt that you are in many ways correct, but this is not going to cause flooding and devestation for everyone. It's going to be hit and miss whether a tree falls on one person's house and not another's. Also, I do not expect everybody to see a hurricane force wind or gust. There will be those who do (many) most of whom will be on south facing shores of Long Island and east facing shores of NJ, a few on other parts of Long Island. Irene has been an underperformer thus far and actually, I have no reason to believe that she's suddenly going to tear the house down up here while she's been weaker than forecasted well to our south over much warmer friendlier ocean waters. But many folks will suffer major flooding both from the rain and the storm surge. Trees will come down but not everywhere. It will be mess.

But what they did in terms of closing the roadways and MTA tomorrow at starting at noon was extreme and ridiculous and could cause panic. I do not think this storm will be any more historic than Gloria, Bob, or Bell---storms for which no such measures were taken if I recall correctly. What do they do for a CAT 3 or 4?

WX/PT

Insane they just scared my dad by giving him an evacuation call at 10:30..woke him up..he lives in Patchouge..south of Montauk highway,but he lives in a second floor condo which is 50 feet from the bottom..i mean come on..yea maybe 5 ft storm surge,but he will be safe..This is not Katrina,but people are acting that way...Gove Christie closing the Garden State Parkway?..I mean thats 10 miles inland..it's just loco

[pazzo83]

I have no doubt that you are in many ways correct, but this is not going to cause flooding and devestation for everyone. It's going to be hit and miss whether a tree falls on one person's house and not another's. Also, I do not expect everybody to see a hurricane force wind or gust. There will be those who do (many) most of whom will be on south facing shores of Long Island and east facing shores of NJ, a few on other parts of Long Island. Irene has been an underperformer thus far and actually, I have no reason to believe that she's suddenly going to tear the house down up here while she's been weaker than forecasted well to our south over much warmer friendlier ocean waters. But many folks will suffer major flooding both from the rain and the storm surge. Trees will come down but not everywhere. It will be mess.

But what they did in terms of closing the roadways and MTA tomorrow at starting at noon was extreme and ridiculous and could cause panic. I do not think this storm will be any more historic than Gloria, Bob, or Bell---storms for which no such measures were taken if I recall correctly. What do they do for a CAT 3 or 4?

WX/PT

Bob's track was WELL east of what we are dealing with and Gloria was moving more quickly.

[Parsley]

Insane they just scared my dad by giving him an evacuation call at 10:30..woke him up..he lives in Patchouge..south of Montauk highway,but he lives in a second floor condo which is 50 feet from the bottom..i mean come on..yea maybe 5 ft storm surge,but he will be safe..

wow.......that is pathetic.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

The NAM again has resumed that due north motion after it passes north of VA, I continue to be baffled as to what is inducing that, I don't see anything over the Lakes region or OH Valley strong enough to cause that,I still refuse to budge from the idea this is going to come in east of where most of the models have it coming in. I may go down in flames with it but the fact this thing is already deviating somewhat from where it should be makes me feel somewhat good.

Agree 100%.

WX/PT

[bluewave]

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 39.8N 74.0WMAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 45NW.50 KT...140NE 125SE 80SW 60NW.34 KT...250NE 225SE 140SW 125NW.

[Quincy]

I've been saying this for a while, Gloria is a great situation to compare to. Similar track, although Gloria was a bit stronger, Irene is somewhat larger, so it's almost a wash.

Basically, I'd expect Gloria-like impacts, although it will probably be slightly worse across the NJ coast, NYC, western LI and western CT.

Just my $0.02

[Juliancolton]

Save it guys.

[KEITH L.I]

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 39.8N 74.0WMAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 45NW.50 KT...140NE 125SE 80SW 60NW.34 KT...250NE 225SE 140SW 125NW.

what model and where?