KEITH L.I Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 funny the night before a hurricane approaches are always the same..calm,humid tropical and crickets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Doesn't matter the season, the euro rules. Mights as well trash everything else, inst that obvious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 100kts in the se quadrant and she is looking better, core is tightening and very symetrical, all the dry air evacuated into the outer part of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 And this is what we are so worried about down here in New Brunswick... not a pretty outlook for us... Oh my. What was it during April of 2007? (I believe that was when the flooding was its worst ever?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Def looking better.... pinhole eye showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Doesn't matter the season, the euro rules. Mights as well trash everything else, inst that obvious? Always does..it misses on occasion..rarely..but it's the king of models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Always does..it misses on occasion..rarely..but it's the king of models a couple of days ago it was pretty far west, but agree-it's a damn good model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 21Z RSM Euroish as well I just can't get over how all of these things look like some photoshop fake that a weenie would use for their avatar or something. I have always thought it to be quite unlikely that I would ever see a direct hit on NYC...but it's getting awfully close to actually happening now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 33 Hours on the NAM KBDR and NYC as the feeder bands start working in, these are the ones that have the TOR and water spout potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Oh my. What was it during April of 2007? (I believe that was when the flooding was its worst ever?) The highest ever was during Floyd, with 42.13 ft. April 2007 was 38.38 ft. I don't know how accurate these flood forecasts are, or if this will increase. I guess it will really depend on the rainfall and where the maximum rainfall falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Def looking better.... pinhole eye showing. Whats that clearing on the left quadrant? dry air intruding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 00Z Nam makes a full landfall into Southern Jersey and will likely ride the shore up to KNYC ala EURO. Wow, euro is so good. Absolute worst case for NYC with tons of ocean water regardless of how strong she is. Intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 How many feet above normal will the storm surge be for the south shore of Suffolk county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 a couple of days ago it was pretty far west, but agree-it's a damn good model Even when every model nudged east, when the euro held ground I knew you could take it to the bank. GFS performing pretty good of late too, based on my recollection, too lazy to check verification in the "off season"!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Yup, NAM goes southern jersey, straddles Jersey Shore, and then up into NY Harbour. A historic once in a lifetime track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 00Z Nam makes a full landfall into Southern Jersey and will likely ride the shore up to KNYC ala EURO. Wow, euro is so good. Absolute worst case for NYC with tons of ocean water regardless of how strong she is. Intense. Yea it's like in winter when the Euro is not on your side, even if there is agreement with the other models, you know in the back of your mind that the storm will probably not work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Its amazing how good the models handle this storm.. they pretty much show the same approx for 8-10 runs.. especially the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Already a gust to 67mph in wrightsville beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If this track holds, pat on back to the euro, gfs, ukie, and even the much maligned NAM for being so close so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Already a gust to 67mph in wrightsville beach Do not underestimate this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Yup, NAM goes southern jersey, straddles Jersey Shore, and then up into NY Harbour. A historic once in a lifetime track. The one differentiator continues to be the timing. GFS at 12z Sunday is already almost to NYC, NAM is still south of Cape May. That could make a big difference as to high/low tide impacts here. I would still favor the faster models as hurricanes often accelerate as they head up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 not sure why everyone is claiming victory for the ECMWF just yet. even if the storm does hug the coast, the EC was one of the few models that was consistently OFF and by that I mean too far west. current satellite looks like the center is trending just east of the OFCL track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 im saving this image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If this track holds, pat on back to the euro, gfs, ukie, and even the much maligned NAM for being so close so far out. As for the general idea from +5 days out, I think GFS takes the prize, Inside 84 hrs, the euro wins, as almost always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It's actually kinda cool out, but yes the crickets are quite loud tonight funny the night before a hurricane approaches are always the same..calm,humid tropical and crickets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The one differentiator continues to be the timing. GFS at 12z Sunday is already almost to NYC, NAM is still south of Cape May. That could make a big difference as to high/low tide impacts here. I would still favor the faster models as hurricanes often accelerate as they head up this way. The breakers were coming around 6 feet or a little higher right at sunset this evening. It was cool to watch how quickly the broke down the Quicksilver site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 how does the rain look? iknow the 18z had cut some of it down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 On twister data, all of northern NJ and NYC are exceeding the rainfall scale of 9". So looks like 10"+ on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 how does the rain look? iknow the 18z had cut some of it down max I see is ~10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Anthony/metfan/snow88 reports that he saw on CNN Hurricane hunter reported 120 mph winds somewhere in the storm. I cannot verify this, so take it FWIW, but he wanted you all to know, and if he/they is right, thats awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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