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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II


earthlight

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21Z RSM Euroish as well

f42.gif

I just can't get over how all of these things look like some photoshop fake that a weenie would use for their avatar or something. I have always thought it to be quite unlikely that I would ever see a direct hit on NYC...but it's getting awfully close to actually happening now.

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Oh my. What was it during April of 2007? (I believe that was when the flooding was its worst ever?)

The highest ever was during Floyd, with 42.13 ft. April 2007 was 38.38 ft. I don't know how accurate these flood forecasts are, or if this will increase. I guess it will really depend on the rainfall and where the maximum rainfall falls.

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00Z Nam makes a full landfall into Southern Jersey and will likely ride the shore up to KNYC ala EURO. Wow, euro is so good. Absolute worst case for NYC with tons of ocean water regardless of how strong she is. Intense.

Yea it's like in winter when the Euro is not on your side, even if there is agreement with the other models, you know in the back of your mind that the storm will probably not work out.

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Yup, NAM goes southern jersey, straddles Jersey Shore, and then up into NY Harbour. A historic once in a lifetime track.

The one differentiator continues to be the timing. GFS at 12z Sunday is already almost to NYC, NAM is still south of Cape May. That could make a big difference as to high/low tide impacts here. I would still favor the faster models as hurricanes often accelerate as they head up this way.

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not sure why everyone is claiming victory for the ECMWF just yet. even if the storm does hug the coast, the EC was one of the few models that was consistently OFF and by that I mean too far west.

current satellite looks like the center is trending just east of the OFCL track

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The one differentiator continues to be the timing. GFS at 12z Sunday is already almost to NYC, NAM is still south of Cape May. That could make a big difference as to high/low tide impacts here. I would still favor the faster models as hurricanes often accelerate as they head up this way.

The breakers were coming around 6 feet or a little higher right at sunset this evening.

It was cool to watch how quickly the broke down the Quicksilver site.

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