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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II


earthlight

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The only question now is how strong will this thing be...

The amount of water she will build up combined with the ridiculous rainfall amounts, long duration winds, jet streak, and transition to Extra Tropical status pretty much guarantees something most of us have never seen. It's going to be intense, regarless of Noreaster27cantpostanymore says

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That cluster seems almost perfect to an ideal track towards NYC, a hurricane scraping the immediate coast of the Eastern Seaboard.

This statement is rare and will last a lifetime I was just at the beach I'm 10 min away, swells picking up a lot of nypd around, signs, traffic, first time NYC mandatory evacuation the entire city to be shutdown Tom, a lot tO take in

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The amount of water she will build up combined with the ridiculous rainfall amounts, long duration winds, jet streak, and transition to Extra Tropical status pretty much guarantees something most of us have never seen. It's going to be intense, regarless of Noreaster27cantpostanymore says

All that is in her favor along with a track that seems rather solid with much of the guidance. In the end, though, all that will matter to most is does she produce equal to the hype or not. Since inland rains and flooding have not been the focal point of most reporting I think she will be considered to have definitly preformed in that regards. At the coast it is, imo, about 50/50 at this point if she preforms to the level of the hype. She is definitely going to be a very very disruptive event, a damaging event but perhaps not a destructive event. Of course none of this can be said with absolute certainty till after she lays her cards down on the table later tomorrow night into Sunday.

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CAPE is not a big factor for tornadogenesis in landfalling tropical cyclones.

agreed, but talking with earthlight about it earlier, it did stick out. Still, I have been trying to bring the tornado threat up as much as possible last few days, its very real north and east of the storm.

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