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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II


earthlight

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Agree Andrew..Bob did not come out of the deep tropics like irene is doing..Donna had the same track as the NAM is showing and the city had hurricane force winds..it's a bigger storm

Excellent point about Donna Keith.Irene is as big as I ever remember seeing a hurricane coming out of the Tropics towards the EC.She is going to continue to grow in size to a point that actual track has little significance.

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Plus, Irene is going to arrive at a different trajectory. It will start out further west, travel almost due north for a while, and then almost parallel a lot of LI when it turns ENE...this type of scenario prolongs storm surge, as opposed to a generic straight NE path.

Good point Doug.This has the potential to really do a lot of beach devastation.

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Good point Doug.This has the potential to really do a lot of beach devastation.

Severe beach erosion likely from NC to New England. But surge related flooding and wind damage in and around NYC is contingent upon a very precise track. The likelihood of severe impacts in NYC is still relatively low, while the likelihood of significant impacts somewhere along the east coast, probably as close as NJ and LI is fairly high.

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Donna                          <a href='http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bf/Donna_1960_track.png' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'><img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bf/Donna_1960_track.png/800px-Donna_1960_track.png" /></a>

Donna had a 11 foot surge at the battery in lower Manhattan.

Oops.....it moved East of LI so in reality there were no effects here.

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How does this storm look to compare to the effects and impacts of Gloriaon Long Island in 1985? Many had no power for a week to 10 days. Worse, the same, or not as severe? Just trying to get a perspective on the impact.

I think the general thinking is this could be a bit worse than Gloria. Not 100% sure though.

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great Atlantic hurricane hurricane gusts in the city..look at the track

800px-1944_Atlantic_hurricane_7_track.png

as a matter of fact..looks alot like the 0z Nam tonight

What's scary is that even that storm, with a track that far east, caused major damage in many towns along the Jersey shore. Lots more development now too.

The hurricane was infamous for the amount of damage it caused along the New Jersey coastline. The shore towns on Long Beach Island, as well as Barnegat, Atlantic City, Ocean City, and Cape May all suffered major damage. Long Beach Island and Barnegat Island both lost their causeways to the mainland in the storm effectively cutting them off from the rest of New Jersey. Additionally both islands lost hundreds of homes, in particular the Harvey Cedars section of Long Beach Island where many homes in the town were swept out to sea. In Atlantic City the hurricane's storm surge forced water into the lobbies of many of the resorts famous hotels. The Atlantic City boardwalk suffered major damage along with the citys famous ocean piers. Both the famed Steel Pier and Heinz Pier were partially destroyed by the hurricane with only the Steel Pier getting rebuilt. Ocean City and Cape May also lost many homes in the storm with Ocean City's boardwalk suffering significant damage. Larry Savadove's devotes a whole chapter in his book Great Storms of the Jersey Shore to the hurricane and the imprint and lore it left on the Jersey Shore.

http://en.wikipedia....antic_hurricane

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I'I 'll piss on a sparkplug if this beast doesn't do what canes do cause human suffering and destruction in the tri-state area folks if your sick like me i just can't wait . I couldn't sleep last night and i won't tonight i need therapy this going to be ugly no doubt. Mother natures masterpiece is headed right at us and if you live to discuss another storm of this magnitude coming over 79 degree water at sandy hook in your life i'd be shocked.

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Gloria produced coastal flooding at LOW tide on both the South shore AND the North shores.I dont understand why people here are dismissing Irene as just another tropical rainstorm.This is the real deal this time.This storm is going to stun a lot of people.

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Donna had a 11 foot surge at the battery in lower Manhattan.

Oops.....it moved East of LI so in reality there were no effects here.

I think it was closer to 8 feet, probably around high tide, but still a good point with respect to the surge impacts of a LI landfalling hurricane. I think that remains the high water mark of record at the battery. Something to shoot for on Sunday.

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Gloria produced coastal flooding at LOW tide on both the South shore AND the North shores.I dont understand why people here are dismissing Irene as just another tropical rainstorm.This is the real deal this time.This storm is going to stun a lot of people.

yes but that made landfall just east of Queens, this is likely to be a good deal futher east. Plus that storm didn't impact Manhattan all that bad, the next day we were pretty much back to normal. This storm could be similar which would be significant but not historic.

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Some hospitals in New York City, including ones in Manhattan, have been ordered to evacuate starting earlier today. They are cancelling all elective surgeries and putting their Emergency Rooms on diversion.

Good idea. Best to try to avoid the gridlock when people belatedly realize this could be some serious ****. We have very little experience with hurricanes up here.

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yes but that made landfall just east of Queens, this is likely to be a good deal futher east. Plus that storm didn't impact Manhattan all that bad, the next day we were pretty much back to normal. This storm could be similar which would be significant but not historic.

why would it be a good deal further east than Gloria?..

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The SREF mean remains tucked in on the coast and similar to the general early track guidance and NCEP blend. That seems like a fair forecast to me at this point.

IR looking better, seems to indicate a consolidating, constricting -although strengthening storm. The wind field growth forecasts may be inaccurate should the storm continue to undergo constriction.

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