earthlight Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is beyond absurd irene looks awful and the mets are really droping the ball on this one. I've seen enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The center expands A TON after it hits western side of LI, so it gives the appearance of a landfall at all those places. What is happening is it contracts when it feels the effects of land, then it expands and starts to move more NE. Earthlight and I zoomed in, it touches eastern shore of NJ and comes into Western LI pretty much where the 12z NAM came on. Wow, so right around here. I remember Gloria's eye massively expanded right after landfall too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If you want the real answers, just look at the radar, big improvements near the center over the past hour, the TC is still lacking on the SW quadrant, but it still has time to improve http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=ltx&loop=yes Yep, it is passing over some really warm waters. Gulf Stream ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think tropical storm warnings for the Lower Hudson Valley are warranted - look how big the windfield is! I do too. The "lmao" was for people who were thinking this storm is no big deal. Read through my previous "debate" with Noreaster-- I actually think it's dangerous for himself personally to be downplaying this, considering his geographical location. He may think it's funny to downplay a 6-12 inch snowfall in winter.... but this is a case where lives may be in imminent peril. No playing around with stuff like this. Also, if someone new reads those posts they may make the wrong decisions based on that kind of attitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 my question is as far as intensity is it suppose to make landfall here on long island as a hurricane still or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 my question is as far as intensity is it suppose to make landfall here on long island as a hurricane still or no? NHC officially has that in their forecast but its becoming highly doubtful this would be the case if Irene does not undergo some sort of eleventh hour intensification off NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 The southwest side of the hurricane remains poorly organized. That being said, the idea that the system is so poorly organized that it will not have any significant impacts on our area in absurd and a severe over-reaction in the other direction. This system is modeled to produce excessive amounts of rainfall...a strong storm surge...high surf...and near hurricane force winds. The combination is enough to cause the potential for widespread flooding, tree damage, power outages, amongst other things. The windfield expansion is going to produce gusts up to hurricane force in many locations. And even still--this is incredible from a meteorological standpoint. Storm like this one do not frequent our area---so take a look at it meteorologically and appreciate the nature of the system itself. The next few days will be wild weather days in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 my question is as far as intensity is it suppose to make landfall here on long island as a hurricane still or no? that's the big question, nobody knows the answer now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 You seem to be pretty level headed-- can you look at the 18z GFS? I saw someone say it has a track right over the Jersey Shore and into NYC and somewhere else, it was said it goes across Central LI and into SE CT LOL. Which one is right? Wunderground maps show a landfall between Long Beach and Freeport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If you want the real answers, just look at the radar, big improvements near the center over the past hour, the TC is still lacking on the SW quadrant, but it still has time to improve http://radar.weather...id=ltx&loop=yes I have seen this claim made all afternoon, but this time I can actually agree. Will need to monitor the next few hours, but it does appear to be regaining its structure and becoming better organized on IR. Watching this is imperative because the strength will be important in determining what will occur up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Wunderground maps show a landfall between Long Beach and Freeport. So nothing much has changed from 12 hours ago lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The southwest side of the hurricane remains poorly organized. That being said, the idea that the system is so poorly organized that it will not have any significant impacts on our area in absurd and a severe over-reaction in the other direction. This system is modeled to produce excessive amounts of rainfall...a strong storm surge...high surf...and near hurricane force winds. The combination is enough to cause the potential for widespread flooding, tree damage, power outages, amongst other things. The windfield expansion is going to produce gusts up to hurricane force in many locations. And even still--this is incredible from a meteorological standpoint. Storm like this one do not frequent our area---so take a look at it meteorologically and appreciate the nature of the system itself. The next few days will be wild weather days in our area. Great post, just to visually witness such a large tropical system impact the tri-state doesn't happen to often, and I'm glad just to be a part of the tracking and eventually the storm itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The southwest side of the hurricane remains poorly organized. That being said, the idea that the system is so poorly organized that it will not have any significant impacts on our area in absurd and a severe over-reaction in the other direction. This system is modeled to produce excessive amounts of rainfall...a strong storm surge...high surf...and near hurricane force winds. The combination is enough to cause the potential for widespread flooding, tree damage, power outages, amongst other things. The windfield expansion is going to produce gusts up to hurricane force in many locations. And even still--this is incredible from a meteorological standpoint. Storm like this one do not frequent our area---so take a look at it meteorologically and appreciate the nature of the system itself. The next few days will be wild weather days in our area. well said, there will be Hurricane Warning Flags flying shortly in NYC soon I'm sure, take a good look everyone, it may be decades before you see them again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyratk1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 As an ex-Long Islander its embarrassing. south of Montauk Highway maybe. Not Sunrise. Out here in Town of Brookhaven, it is mostly south of Montauk Hwy. - except in areas where Montauk is further from the water (Bellport for example). Quite reasonable based on surge maps. List is: Blue Point South of Montauk Highway Patchogue South of Main Street East Patchogue South of Main Street east to the intersection of Montauk Hwy and South Country Rd. Bellport South of South Country Road Brookhaven hamlet South of South Country Road Shirley South of Golden Gate/ Neighborhood Road Mastic Beach Village Moriches South of Main Street Center Moriches South of Main Street Cedar Beach Peninsula, Mt. Sinai East Moriches South of East Moriches Blvd, Newport Beach Community Not sure of Town of Islip, Babylon, Southampton or East Hampton evacuation zones. edit: Islip: http://www.townofislip-ny.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 LOL Worse than March 2001 Let's see if this becomes the tropical version of March 2001, time will tell. It won't be the March of 2001 since we'll actually still get hit by something, but I mean compared to the expectations which lead to mandatory evacuations for everyone south of Sunrise Highway, this will seem like a March of 2001. Though as I said before, there ARE areas like Freeport and Massapequa where Sunrise Highway extends much further south...so them evacuating isn't an overreaction. But for 90% of the county, there is no way, whatsoever, that Sunrise Highway should be the boundary for evacuation. It's absolutely beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Out here in Town of Brookhaven, it is mostly south of Montauk Hwy. - except in areas where Montauk is further from the water (Bellport for example). List is: Blue Point South of Montauk Highway Patchogue South of Main Street East Patchogue South of Main Street east to the intersection of Montauk Hwy and South Country Rd. Bellport South of South Country Road Brookhaven hamlet South of South Country Road Shirley South of Golden Gate/ Neighborhood Road Mastic Beach Village Moriches South of Main Street Center Moriches South of Main Street Cedar Beach Peninsula, Mt. Sinai East Moriches South of East Moriches Blvd, Newport Beach Community Not sure of Town of Islip, Babylon, Southampton or East Hampton evacuation zones. That makes sense. My grandparents are in Lindenhurst, south of 27A. Nothing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Look at the probability of TS force winds, 70% + slices straight through LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 There is a banter thread for opinions and bsing. Anyway, Irene definitely looks better right now. Lets see if it can continue. Every time we thought she was regrouping, she fell apart right after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyratk1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That makes sense. My grandparents are in Lindenhurst, south of 27A. Nothing yet. Yeah, from what I saw only Islip/Brookhaven have had clear cut mandatory evacuation zones...and they're quite fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 she is starting to look fairly nice on IR now, new convection is wrapping around the eastern side and beginning to fill in the moat, watch her jump to cat 3 at 11pm and scare everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Does anyone think that there will be a period of rapid intensification? B/c seriously this storm looks like a shadow of it's former self.. I really thought we'd be dealing w/ a strong cat 3 right now... Hey perhaps this is the saving grace... Nobody needs a cat 2 storm coming into nyc.. I know that there has been talk of dry air, etc over the past few hours but is there any chance of this strengthening in the next 24 hours? jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 One of the last few good images before the sun sets, you can see a pop up of higher cloud tops to the right of the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 from twitter NOAA42: Flight level winds have picked up a bit, we're about 80 nm N of center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Does anyone think that there will be a period of rapid intensification? B/c seriously this storm looks like a shadow of it's former self.. I really thought we'd be dealing w/ a strong cat 3 right now... Hey perhaps this is the saving grace... Nobody needs a cat 2 storm coming into nyc.. I know that there has been talk of dry air, etc over the past few hours but is there any chance of this strengthening in the next 24 hours? jeff I don't think anybody really knows what to excpect since there are still so many things to calculate such as the gulf stream, jet stream interaction, land interactions and exact track, there is a pocket of very warm sea surface temps just to the NE of VA that not to many people are paying attention to, and a lot of the models have been showing some intensification at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 from twitter NOAA42: Flight level winds have picked up a bit, we're about 80 nm N of center Steve d thinking possible RI can occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Does anyone think that there will be a period of rapid intensification? B/c seriously this storm looks like a shadow of it's former self.. I really thought we'd be dealing w/ a strong cat 3 right now... Hey perhaps this is the saving grace... No way. It might reorganize just slightly or at least hold steady but I can't see it strengthening significantly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This thing has never been able to get its act together. The large wind field combined with some decent southwesterly shear has not allowed for strengthening and organization of the eyewall structure, and it's not about to get that in the next 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Irene has definitely improved over the last several hours and thunderstorms are starting to fire on the east side of the circulation. This still has plenty of time to intensify but even if it didn't, we are still going to see torrential rains, gusty winds and coastal flooding. Its not too often we see a hurricane come close to the NJ shore so this is a rare event from that standpoint. Enjoy folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 SLOSH modeling showing the areas of storm surge potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 No way. It might reorganize just slightly or at least hold steady but I can't see it strengthening significantly... The size of the storm is too big...you may see the pressure drop but the winds will not have a reasonable timeframe to catchup, in an extreme situation I could see it get to 110-115 but even that would surprise me for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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