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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II


earthlight

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The center expands A TON after it hits western side of LI, so it gives the appearance of a landfall at all those places. What is happening is it contracts when it feels the effects of land, then it expands and starts to move more NE.

Earthlight and I zoomed in, it touches eastern shore of NJ and comes into Western LI pretty much where the 12z NAM came on.

Wow, so right around here. I remember Gloria's eye massively expanded right after landfall too.

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I think tropical storm warnings for the Lower Hudson Valley are warranted - look how big the windfield is!

I do too.

The "lmao" was for people who were thinking this storm is no big deal.

Read through my previous "debate" with Noreaster-- I actually think it's dangerous for himself personally to be downplaying this, considering his geographical location.

He may think it's funny to downplay a 6-12 inch snowfall in winter.... but this is a case where lives may be in imminent peril. No playing around with stuff like this. Also, if someone new reads those posts they may make the wrong decisions based on that kind of attitude.

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my question is as far as intensity is it suppose to make landfall here on long island as a hurricane still or no?

NHC officially has that in their forecast but its becoming highly doubtful this would be the case if Irene does not undergo some sort of eleventh hour intensification off NC.

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The southwest side of the hurricane remains poorly organized. That being said, the idea that the system is so poorly organized that it will not have any significant impacts on our area in absurd and a severe over-reaction in the other direction. This system is modeled to produce excessive amounts of rainfall...a strong storm surge...high surf...and near hurricane force winds. The combination is enough to cause the potential for widespread flooding, tree damage, power outages, amongst other things. The windfield expansion is going to produce gusts up to hurricane force in many locations.

And even still--this is incredible from a meteorological standpoint. Storm like this one do not frequent our area---so take a look at it meteorologically and appreciate the nature of the system itself. The next few days will be wild weather days in our area.

R43kV.jpg

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You seem to be pretty level headed-- can you look at the 18z GFS? I saw someone say it has a track right over the Jersey Shore and into NYC and somewhere else, it was said it goes across Central LI and into SE CT LOL. Which one is right?

Wunderground maps show a landfall between Long Beach and Freeport.

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If you want the real answers, just look at the radar, big improvements near the center over the past hour, the TC is still lacking on the SW quadrant, but it still has time to improve

http://radar.weather...id=ltx&loop=yes

I have seen this claim made all afternoon, but this time I can actually agree. Will need to monitor the next few hours, but it does appear to be regaining its structure and becoming better organized on IR. Watching this is imperative because the strength will be important in determining what will occur up here.

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The southwest side of the hurricane remains poorly organized. That being said, the idea that the system is so poorly organized that it will not have any significant impacts on our area in absurd and a severe over-reaction in the other direction. This system is modeled to produce excessive amounts of rainfall...a strong storm surge...high surf...and near hurricane force winds. The combination is enough to cause the potential for widespread flooding, tree damage, power outages, amongst other things. The windfield expansion is going to produce gusts up to hurricane force in many locations.

And even still--this is incredible from a meteorological standpoint. Storm like this one do not frequent our area---so take a look at it meteorologically and appreciate the nature of the system itself. The next few days will be wild weather days in our area.

R43kV.jpg

Great post, just to visually witness such a large tropical system impact the tri-state doesn't happen to often, and I'm glad just to be a part of the tracking and eventually the storm itself.

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The southwest side of the hurricane remains poorly organized. That being said, the idea that the system is so poorly organized that it will not have any significant impacts on our area in absurd and a severe over-reaction in the other direction. This system is modeled to produce excessive amounts of rainfall...a strong storm surge...high surf...and near hurricane force winds. The combination is enough to cause the potential for widespread flooding, tree damage, power outages, amongst other things. The windfield expansion is going to produce gusts up to hurricane force in many locations.

And even still--this is incredible from a meteorological standpoint. Storm like this one do not frequent our area---so take a look at it meteorologically and appreciate the nature of the system itself. The next few days will be wild weather days in our area.

well said, there will be Hurricane Warning Flags flying shortly in NYC soon I'm sure, take a good look everyone, it may be decades before you see them again

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As an ex-Long Islander its embarrassing. south of Montauk Highway maybe. Not Sunrise.

Out here in Town of Brookhaven, it is mostly south of Montauk Hwy. - except in areas where Montauk is further from the water (Bellport for example). Quite reasonable based on surge maps.

List is:

  • Blue Point South of Montauk Highway
  • Patchogue South of Main Street
  • East Patchogue South of Main Street east to the intersection of Montauk Hwy and South Country Rd.
  • Bellport South of South Country Road
  • Brookhaven hamlet South of South Country Road
  • Shirley South of Golden Gate/ Neighborhood Road
  • Mastic Beach Village
  • Moriches South of Main Street
  • Center Moriches South of Main Street
  • Cedar Beach Peninsula, Mt. Sinai
  • East Moriches South of East Moriches Blvd, Newport Beach Community

Not sure of Town of Islip, Babylon, Southampton or East Hampton evacuation zones.

edit:

Islip: http://www.townofislip-ny.gov/

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LOL Worse than March 2001 ;)

Let's see if this becomes the tropical version of March 2001, time will tell.

It won't be the March of 2001 since we'll actually still get hit by something, but I mean compared to the expectations which lead to mandatory evacuations for everyone south of Sunrise Highway, this will seem like a March of 2001.

Though as I said before, there ARE areas like Freeport and Massapequa where Sunrise Highway extends much further south...so them evacuating isn't an overreaction. But for 90% of the county, there is no way, whatsoever, that Sunrise Highway should be the boundary for evacuation. It's absolutely beyond me.

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Out here in Town of Brookhaven, it is mostly south of Montauk Hwy. - except in areas where Montauk is further from the water (Bellport for example).

List is:

  • Blue Point South of Montauk Highway
  • Patchogue South of Main Street
  • East Patchogue South of Main Street east to the intersection of Montauk Hwy and South Country Rd.
  • Bellport South of South Country Road
  • Brookhaven hamlet South of South Country Road
  • Shirley South of Golden Gate/ Neighborhood Road
  • Mastic Beach Village
  • Moriches South of Main Street
  • Center Moriches South of Main Street
  • Cedar Beach Peninsula, Mt. Sinai
  • East Moriches South of East Moriches Blvd, Newport Beach Community

Not sure of Town of Islip, Babylon, Southampton or East Hampton evacuation zones.

That makes sense. My grandparents are in Lindenhurst, south of 27A. Nothing yet.

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Does anyone think that there will be a period of rapid intensification? B/c seriously this storm looks like a shadow of it's former self.. I really thought we'd be dealing w/ a strong cat 3 right now... Hey perhaps this is the saving grace...

Nobody needs a cat 2 storm coming into nyc..

I know that there has been talk of dry air, etc over the past few hours but is there any chance of this strengthening in the next 24 hours?

jeff

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Does anyone think that there will be a period of rapid intensification? B/c seriously this storm looks like a shadow of it's former self.. I really thought we'd be dealing w/ a strong cat 3 right now... Hey perhaps this is the saving grace... Nobody needs a cat 2 storm coming into nyc.. I know that there has been talk of dry air, etc over the past few hours but is there any chance of this strengthening in the next 24 hours? jeff
I don't think anybody really knows what to excpect since there are still so many things to calculate such as the gulf stream, jet stream interaction, land interactions and exact track, there is a pocket of very warm sea surface temps just to the NE of VA that not to many people are paying attention to, and a lot of the models have been showing some intensification at that point.
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Does anyone think that there will be a period of rapid intensification? B/c seriously this storm looks like a shadow of it's former self.. I really thought we'd be dealing w/ a strong cat 3 right now... Hey perhaps this is the saving grace...

No way. It might reorganize just slightly or at least hold steady but I can't see it strengthening significantly...

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Irene has definitely improved over the last several hours and thunderstorms are starting to fire on the east side of the circulation. This still has plenty of time to intensify but even if it didn't, we are still going to see torrential rains, gusty winds and coastal flooding. Its not too often we see a hurricane come close to the NJ shore so this is a rare event from that standpoint. Enjoy folks...

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No way. It might reorganize just slightly or at least hold steady but I can't see it strengthening significantly...

The size of the storm is too big...you may see the pressure drop but the winds will not have a reasonable timeframe to catchup, in an extreme situation I could see it get to 110-115 but even that would surprise me for sure.

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