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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II


earthlight

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18z GFS took a decided left turn into NC at landfall, most west I have seen it yet. Lets see what it does on its approach to NYC

Good, I dont care if it weakens I want it to go west to make all the annoying people who keep saying east, east, east keep quiet LOL

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The true wind threat has definitely come into clearer view today with a weakening, lopsided Irene already. But it is not the winds that are most threatening. It is the storm surge that this storm has already put into motion, and if it takes the path along eastern NJ then there will be severe tidal flooding of a much higher magnitude because of the massive size. Combined with astronomical high tides, the evacuations are warranted if you ask me regardless if its only a strong tropical storm. Of course if this skirts a little further east then the area is spared severe tidal flooding and no one will believe anyone ever again. The rainfall is going to cause epic flooding as well folks. Nothing overhyped about that, just the winds perhaps.

NJ, are you saying that surge is more a function of storm size and orientation of coastline rather than storm intensity? That's what Bill Reed was saying also, he basically said that for some storms, the SS scale needs to be tossed out. He said large storms like this have different mechanics as far as surge is concerned. I guess we will see.

There is also the matter of the surge created when the storm was stronger and the lag effect between storm weakening and lessening surge.

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fully agree! I would be shocked if winds here are stronger than Mar 2010.

I would too actually-- we had 80 mph winds with that one. I think that would be the absolute max for us in gusts. Bertha had gusts in the mid-upper 70s and it made landfall as a 65 mph TS at JFK

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This is the most RIDICULOUS overreaction I've EVER seen. Thank goodness I'm literally 1/4th or 1/3rd of a mile north of Sunrise Highway, but a lot of Rockville Centre residents are south of Sunrise. I'm livid!

No one is going to trust meteorologists anymore.

LOL Worse than March 2001 ;)

Let's see if this becomes the tropical version of March 2001, time will tell.

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NJ, are you saying that surge is more a function of storm size and orientation of coastline rather than storm intensity? That's what Bill Reed was saying also, he basically said that for some storms, the SS scale needs to be tossed out. He said large storms like this have different mechanics as far as surge is concerned. I guess we will see.

There is also the matter of the surge created when the storm was stronger and the lag effect between storm weakening and lessening surge.

Yes it is not just a function of the SS at all. the size if the storm pushing the water is a big factor (See Ike with his surge into Texas being absolutely more severe than the winds would have suggested). Furthermore, the momentum of the water already being set into motion carries over pretty well even if the storm weakens (See Katrina with her cat 5 storm surge despite downgrading to 120 mph at landfall)

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This is the most RIDICULOUS overreaction I've EVER seen. Thank goodness I'm literally 1/4th or 1/3rd of a mile north of Sunrise Highway, but a lot of Rockville Centre residents are south of Sunrise. I'm livid!

No one is going to trust meteorologists anymore.

and what happens if there is major flooding.. wind problems.. and no evacuation? will people believe state officials?

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18Z GFS is a nasty track. Coming right up into NYC after it barely touches coast of NJ. Starts to contract with influence from the coast. and then immediately expands at 45 hours when it comes ashore. So much water and rain.

Hmmm, angular momentum would dictate winds increase as it contracts.

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Yes it is not just a function of the SS at all. the size if the storm pushing the water is a big factor (See Ike with his surge into Texas being absolutely more severe than the winds would have suggested). Furthermore, the momentum of the water already being set into motion carries over pretty well even if the storm weakens (See Katrina with her cat 5 storm surge despite downgrading to 120 mph at landfall)

Fully agree-- we also had that with 1944, which was one of the analogs used. I guess we'll see if these ideas pan out.

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and what happens if there is major flooding.. wind problems.. and no evacuation? will people believe state officials?

For 90% of the county, Sunrise Highway is a solid couple to few miles inland. In my town, Sunrise highway is almost FIVE miles inland.

Evacuate the Freeport or Massapequa areas south of the highway, sure. But the whole county? LOL.

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This is what sucks about weather... We had a very intense storm that had the makings of a historic storm- however, now the storm has lost a lot of it's punch - but there is now a hangover occurring b/c the municipalities are rushing to prepare for a cat 3 storm yet what may result is merely a tropical storm.. With Nassau County evacuating (mandatory) from the Queens border to Rockville Centre, people are going to really be pissed beyond belief if this thing turns out to be a weak tropical storm....

Look, i dunno what's happening, but this storm looks like it's run out of steam and it's window of opportunity to strengthen is quickly diminishing..

jeff

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Track is absolutely the question still. The difference between a track along the garden state parkway and a track just offshore has major implication on winds and tidal flooding for the Jersey shore up into New York city area

You seem to be pretty level headed-- can you look at the 18z GFS? I saw someone say it has a track right over the Jersey Shore and into NYC and somewhere else, it was said it goes across Central LI and into SE CT LOL. Which one is right?

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Sunrise Highway seems a little excessive to me, the main problem is with mando evacs in NYC, and the LIRR and subways shutting at Noon, where will all the extra people go and how will they get there.

I haven't lived on Long Island in 30 years, but other than the county coliseum, where would evacuees be housed? I understand going higher than the SUNY Suffolk SLOSH maps for a Cat 1, because storms like Ike and Katrina have shown storms with large windfields produce higher surges than people used to expect from a particular category of hurricane. But this just feels excessive.

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You seem to be pretty level headed-- can you look at the 18z GFS? I saw someone say it has a track right over the Jersey Shore and into NYC and somewhere else, it was said it goes across Central LI and into SE CT LOL. Which one is right?

The center expands A TON after it hits western side of LI, so it gives the appearance of a landfall at all those places. What is happening is it contracts when it feels the effects of land, then it expands and starts to move more NE.

Earthlight and I zoomed in, it touches eastern shore of NJ and comes into Western LI pretty much where the 12z NAM came on.

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You seem to be pretty level headed-- can you look at the 18z GFS? I saw someone say it has a track right over the Jersey Shore and into NYC and somewhere else, it was said it goes across Central LI and into SE CT LOL. Which one is right?

I have a storm vista and it actually is tough to say. I can say with cerrtainty at hour 42 its on top of LBI, but then at 45 there is a large isobar circle over Long Island. The center of that circle is central Long Island but it doesnt mean thats the actual center of low pressure

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Sunrise Highway seems a little excessive to me, the main problem is with mando evacs in NYC, and the LIRR and subways shutting at Noon, where will all the extra people go and how will they get there.

I haven't lived on Long Island in 30 years, but other than the county coliseum, where would evacuees be housed? I understand going higher than the SUNY Suffolk SLOSH maps for a Cat 1, because storms like Ike and Katrina have shown storms with large windfields produce higher surges than people used to expect from a particular category of hurricane. But this just feels excessive.

As an ex-Long Islander its embarrassing. south of Montauk Highway maybe. Not Sunrise.

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