NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Do you think it will be like a 65-70 mph tropical storm (which is what Bertha and Floyd were when they came up here)? If so, how much of a real difference is there between that and a 75-80 mph hurricane? no but a 85 mph cane than yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yes but those areas flood all the time with every storm, we never evacuated before today. I believe the flooding will be worse with this storm.This is going to be a March 13th 2010 type storm with fully leafed trees and more severe coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Where are you going to go? Im in Zone B so im not going anywhere but Zone A just south of me is ordered to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is sad Long Island just issued a mandatory evacuation of EVERYONE south of Sunrise Highway! They're saying we MUST go by 5 PM Saturday or face the consequences. They have even ordered evacuations on some north shore towns! All public transport will be shut down by noon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Mandatory evacuations for all of Nassau County south of Sunrise highway. Breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Here is KBDR from the the first band that comes in at 33 hours on the 18Z NAM. Decent numbers for convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Im in Zone B so im not going anywhere but Zone A just south of me is ordered to leave. Parts of Zone B were also ordered to evacuate. Near your area I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Do you think it will be like a 65-70 mph tropical storm (which is what Bertha and Floyd were when they came up here)? If so, how much of a real difference is there between that and a 75-80 mph hurricane? The thing is though by the time it reaches here, even if it were a 75 mph cane its likely only a miniscule portion of the storm would have 75 mph sustained winds...most of it would be a broad brushed areaof 35-50 mph winds with some gusts to 60 mph....potentially damaging for sure due to trees and power lines but it will certainly be of the likes we have all seen many times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Here is the the skew-t from landfall KBDR. Impressive Sweat and obscene helicity. Thinking there will be a tornado watch to the right of landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The thing is though by the time it reaches here, even if it were a 75 mph cane its likely only a miniscule portion of the storm would have 75 mph sustained winds...most of it would be a broad brushed areaof 35-50 mph winds with some gusts to 60 mph....potentially damaging for sure due to trees and power lines but it will certainly be of the likes we have all seen many times before. Im upset about this mandatory evacuation.... wth, I'm in a Cat 4 surge zone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The thing is though by the time it reaches here, even if it were a 75 mph cane its likely only a miniscule portion of the storm would have 75 mph sustained winds...most of it would be a broad brushed areaof 35-50 mph winds with some gusts to 60 mph....potentially damaging for sure due to trees and power lines but it will certainly be of the likes we have all seen many times before. So what your saying is a typical noreaster..is that your call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NHC's latest discussion has the following as part of their blurb: THE AIRCRAFT DID REPORT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF 50-55 KT 135 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER...SHOWING THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD ABOUT 225-250 N MI OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. Even if sustained winds are 60-75 mph, you are talking about a large windfield with a relatively slow moving storm... It will be the persistance of this speed that will be able to do it's damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is sad Long Island just issued a mandatory evacuation of EVERYONE south of Sunrise Highway! They're saying we MUST go by 5 PM Saturday or face the consequences. They have even ordered evacuations on some north shore towns! All public transport will be shut down by noon tomorrow. Wow, that is crazy and totaly unnecesary and yes I agree sad . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Convoy of emergency trucks going by my house tO rockaway to get people out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Im upset about this mandatory evacuation.... wth, I'm in a Cat 4 surge zone! Completely absurd! You don't have to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NHC's latest discussion has the following as part of their blurb: THE AIRCRAFT DID REPORT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF 50-55 KT 135 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER...SHOWING THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD ABOUT 225-250 N MI OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. Even if sustained winds are 60-75 mph, you are talking about a large windfield with a relatively slow moving storm... It will be the persistance of this speed that will be able to do it's damage That is a massive windfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 So what your saying is a typical noreaster..is that your call? For some people I'd feel the Dec 1992 and Mar 2010 storms will seem worse than this will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is sad Long Island just issued a mandatory evacuation of EVERYONE south of Sunrise Highway! They're saying we MUST go by 5 PM Saturday or face the consequences. They have even ordered evacuations on some north shore towns! All public transport will be shut down by noon tomorrow. Seriously? Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Parts of Zone B were also ordered to evacuate. Near your area I think. Not me the Zone B's in rockaway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is sad Long Island just issued a mandatory evacuation of EVERYONE south of Sunrise Highway! They're saying we MUST go by 5 PM Saturday or face the consequences. They have even ordered evacuations on some north shore towns! All public transport will be shut down by noon tomorrow. That sounds way too excessive. A lot of that area is about the equivalent of a NYC Zone B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is sad <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/default/sad.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> Long Island just issued a mandatory evacuation of EVERYONE south of Sunrise Highway! They're saying we MUST go by 5 PM Saturday or face the consequences. They have even ordered evacuations on some north shore towns! All public transport will be shut down by noon tomorrow. That is overkill.Woodmere needs a Katrina type storm to have water near it.My friend and his wife live there and one reason they like it is because of no threat from coastal flooding unless the storm is a Cat 4 or 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Seriously? Link? It's breaking on the news. Completely absurd. Most those areas wouldnt flood with a category 4 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 For some people I'd feel the Dec 1992 and Mar 2010 storms will seem worse than this will. OK I have you down for no big deal..we'll see in 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 They probably are basing this on the fact Gloria flooded to Merrick Road at low tide and they know this would come in at high tide...again I don't think it will ultimately verify but its probably a move they have no choice but to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z GFS took a decided left turn into NC at landfall, most west I have seen it yet. Lets see what it does on its approach to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 The system has an nice visible satellite presentation, but the IR and WV imagery shows rather poor organization right now. It's really struggling whether the cause is some dry air or shear. I'd have to think it needs to get it's act together over the next few hours, or our chances of seeing hurricane force gusts are going to go down rather quickly. We can't forget that the system is not only going to make landfall on the outer banks, but it will be interacting with land on the west side it's entire way up the east coast...while picking up forward speed. That significantly reduces the chances of hurricane force wind gusts on the west side of the system--and may even confine the stronger near-hurricane gusts to a small area on the east or even southeast side of the low pressure area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It's breaking on the news. Completely absurd. Most those areas wouldnt flood with a category 4 storm. Ok so I nearly blinded myself for trying to make sense of those awfully geographically inaccurate maps for nothing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It's breaking on the news. Completely absurd. Most those areas wouldnt flood with a category 4 storm. insane..I live right on Sunrise..and I'm not going anywhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 For some people I'd feel the Dec 1992 and Mar 2010 storms will seem worse than this will. probably with the winds but with astronomical high tides it could approach those levels wrt coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The true wind threat has definitely come into clearer view today with a weakening, lopsided Irene already. But it is not the winds that are most threatening. It is the storm surge that this storm has already put into motion, and if it takes the path along eastern NJ then there will be severe tidal flooding of a much higher magnitude because of the massive size. Combined with astronomical high tides, the evacuations are warranted if you ask me regardless if its only a strong tropical storm. Of course if this skirts a little further east then the area is spared severe tidal flooding and no one will believe anyone ever again. The rainfall is going to cause epic flooding as well folks. Nothing overhyped about that, just the winds perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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