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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II


earthlight

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Yes but those areas flood all the time with every storm, we never evacuated before today.

I believe the flooding will be worse with this storm.This is going to be a March 13th 2010 type storm with fully leafed trees and more severe coastal flooding.

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This is sad :( Long Island just issued a mandatory evacuation of EVERYONE south of Sunrise Highway! They're saying we MUST go by 5 PM Saturday or face the consequences. They have even ordered evacuations on some north shore towns! All public transport will be shut down by noon tomorrow.

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Do you think it will be like a 65-70 mph tropical storm (which is what Bertha and Floyd were when they came up here)? If so, how much of a real difference is there between that and a 75-80 mph hurricane?

The thing is though by the time it reaches here, even if it were a 75 mph cane its likely only a miniscule portion of the storm would have 75 mph sustained winds...most of it would be a broad brushed areaof 35-50 mph winds with some gusts to 60 mph....potentially damaging for sure due to trees and power lines but it will certainly be of the likes we have all seen many times before.

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The thing is though by the time it reaches here, even if it were a 75 mph cane its likely only a miniscule portion of the storm would have 75 mph sustained winds...most of it would be a broad brushed areaof 35-50 mph winds with some gusts to 60 mph....potentially damaging for sure due to trees and power lines but it will certainly be of the likes we have all seen many times before.

Im upset about this mandatory evacuation.... wth, I'm in a Cat 4 surge zone!

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The thing is though by the time it reaches here, even if it were a 75 mph cane its likely only a miniscule portion of the storm would have 75 mph sustained winds...most of it would be a broad brushed areaof 35-50 mph winds with some gusts to 60 mph....potentially damaging for sure due to trees and power lines but it will certainly be of the likes we have all seen many times before.

So what your saying is a typical noreaster..is that your call?

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NHC's latest discussion has the following as part of their blurb:

THE AIRCRAFT DID REPORT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF

50-55 KT 135 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER...SHOWING THE LARGE SIZE OF

THE WIND FIELD. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT

PASS SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD ABOUT

225-250 N MI OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

Even if sustained winds are 60-75 mph, you are talking about a large windfield with a relatively slow moving storm... It will be the persistance of this speed that will be able to do it's damage

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This is sad :( Long Island just issued a mandatory evacuation of EVERYONE south of Sunrise Highway! They're saying we MUST go by 5 PM Saturday or face the consequences. They have even ordered evacuations on some north shore towns! All public transport will be shut down by noon tomorrow.

Wow, that is crazy and totaly unnecesary and yes I agree sad :(.

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NHC's latest discussion has the following as part of their blurb:

THE AIRCRAFT DID REPORT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF

50-55 KT 135 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER...SHOWING THE LARGE SIZE OF

THE WIND FIELD. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT

PASS SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD ABOUT

225-250 N MI OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

Even if sustained winds are 60-75 mph, you are talking about a large windfield with a relatively slow moving storm... It will be the persistance of this speed that will be able to do it's damage

That is a massive windfield.

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This is sad :( Long Island just issued a mandatory evacuation of EVERYONE south of Sunrise Highway! They're saying we MUST go by 5 PM Saturday or face the consequences. They have even ordered evacuations on some north shore towns! All public transport will be shut down by noon tomorrow.

Seriously? Link?

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This is sad :( Long Island just issued a mandatory evacuation of EVERYONE south of Sunrise Highway! They're saying we MUST go by 5 PM Saturday or face the consequences. They have even ordered evacuations on some north shore towns! All public transport will be shut down by noon tomorrow.

That sounds way too excessive. A lot of that area is about the equivalent of a NYC Zone B.

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This is sad <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/default/sad.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':(' />  Long Island just issued a mandatory evacuation of EVERYONE south of Sunrise Highway!  They're saying we MUST go by 5 PM Saturday or face the consequences.  They have even ordered evacuations on some north shore towns!  All public transport will be shut down by noon tomorrow.

That is overkill.Woodmere needs a Katrina type storm to have water near it.My friend and his wife live there and one reason they like it is because of no threat from coastal flooding unless the storm is a Cat 4 or 5.

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The system has an nice visible satellite presentation, but the IR and WV imagery shows rather poor organization right now. It's really struggling whether the cause is some dry air or shear. I'd have to think it needs to get it's act together over the next few hours, or our chances of seeing hurricane force gusts are going to go down rather quickly.

We can't forget that the system is not only going to make landfall on the outer banks, but it will be interacting with land on the west side it's entire way up the east coast...while picking up forward speed. That significantly reduces the chances of hurricane force wind gusts on the west side of the system--and may even confine the stronger near-hurricane gusts to a small area on the east or even southeast side of the low pressure area.

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The true wind threat has definitely come into clearer view today with a weakening, lopsided Irene already. But it is not the winds that are most threatening. It is the storm surge that this storm has already put into motion, and if it takes the path along eastern NJ then there will be severe tidal flooding of a much higher magnitude because of the massive size. Combined with astronomical high tides, the evacuations are warranted if you ask me regardless if its only a strong tropical storm. Of course if this skirts a little further east then the area is spared severe tidal flooding and no one will believe anyone ever again. The rainfall is going to cause epic flooding as well folks. Nothing overhyped about that, just the winds perhaps.

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