Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II

[A-L-E-X]

They do state its possible that Irene hits the area as a strong TS, I think thats most likely given the weakening we have seen today.

Yup and it's fine by me as long as the track stays very close to us.

[A-L-E-X]

a 70 mph TS and a 75-80 mph hurricane are virtually the same thing.

I wonder if they allow people to post from jail hmmmm lol.

[Stormlover74]

Warnings not updated on the NWS site

[SnowGoose69]

They do state its possible that Irene hits the area as a strong TS, I think thats most likely given the weakening we have seen today.

I'd say its likely that happens at this point. If it comes in and catches too much of NC then it really will go down the drain. There continue to be numerous outs for NYC on this storm no matter which way it goes. If it comes into Nassau it may be severely weakened, if it comes overhead NJ it also could be severely weakened, and now we still have the out of it goinginto Suffolk county too.

[JSantanaNYC]

I'd say its likely that happens at this point. If it comes in and catches too much of NC then it really will go down the drain. There continue to be numerous outs for NYC on this storm no matter which way it goes. If it comes into Nassau it may be severely weakened, if it comes overhead NJ it also could be severely weakened, and now we still have the out of it goinginto Suffolk county too.

Plus it was suppose to be Cat 4 today,..hit NC as Cat 3.. but now as a Cat 2.. if it doesn't change tonight..I may also think we will see Tropical Storm instead

[LocoAko]

FWIW, the NHC has only a 26% chance of Irene being a hurricane at 18Z Sunday... provides a 59% chance that it is a Tropical Storm at that point. Oddly enough, at 36 h (6Z Sunday) there is an 18% chance that the storm has weakened to a Tropical Depression, but this increases to a 9% chance at 48 h.

[IsentropicLift]

tropical moisture has begun to arrive, storms beginning to fire on radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[KEITH L.I]

I'd say its likely that happens at this point. If it comes in and catches too much of NC then it really will go down the drain. There continue to be numerous outs for NYC on this storm no matter which way it goes. If it comes into Nassau it may be severely weakened, if it comes overhead NJ it also could be severely weakened, and now we still have the out of it goinginto Suffolk county too.

You continue to downplay this.I guess you don't expect a big deal..so we will all have power on Monday?

[KEITH L.I]

FWIW, the NHC has only a 26% chance of Irene being a hurricane at 18Z Sunday... provides a 59% chance that it is a Tropical Storm at that point. Oddly enough, at 36 h (6Z Sunday) there is an 18% chance that the storm has weakened to a Tropical Depression, but this increases to a 9% chance at 48 h.

18z it already made landfall on Long Island

[CAT5ANDREW]

I'd say its likely that happens at this point.  If it comes in and catches too much of NC then it really will go down the drain.  There continue to be numerous outs for NYC on this storm no matter which way it goes.  If it comes into Nassau it may be severely weakened, if it comes overhead NJ it also could be severely weakened, and now we still have the out of it goinginto Suffolk county too.

Florida did mass evacuations for Floyd in 1999 and it missed them and they were criticized greatly for crying wolf.I believe NYC is doing the right thing though,When people see less damage than expected it will be a sigh of relief.This is still going to be a formidable storm though,just not as severe as previously thought.

[NorEaster27]

I'd say its likely that happens at this point. If it comes in and catches too much of NC then it really will go down the drain. There continue to be numerous outs for NYC on this storm no matter which way it goes. If it comes into Nassau it may be severely weakened, if it comes overhead NJ it also could be severely weakened, and now we still have the out of it goinginto Suffolk county too.

yup, another crazy overhyped storm

[LocoAko]

18z it already made landfall on Long Island

They still only have a 31% chance of it being a hurricane even at 06Z Sunday... 45% tropical storm, and 18% tropical depression.

[nycsnow]

As fast as it was downgraded to be a cat 1 NC landfall it could go back up to a 2, steve d thinks it may pick up strength again as well as a few models I saw someone post

[CAT5ANDREW]

yup, another crazy overhyped storm

Howard beach is still going to have major flooding during high tide.

[Sickman]

yup, another crazy overhyped storm

That hasn't even hit North Carolina yet.

You're really pushing it.

[A-L-E-X]

Two of the old time storms I continue to be impressed by is August 1893 (which we already discussed as destroying Hogs Island) and the Great September 1815 storm which actually created Long Beach Barrier Island by separating it from the Rockaway Peninsula.

I think the idea that west of the track doesn't get severe conditions is misinformation.... check out where that storm tracked and what happened.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_September_Gale_of_1815

The storm struck Long Island on September 23, 1815, probably coming ashore near Center Moriches (Ludlum). On the south shore of Long Island it broke through the barrier beach and created the inlet that still isolates Long Beach, which had previously been an eastward extension of The Rockaways.

[A-L-E-X]

That hasn't even hit North Carolina yet.

You're really pushing it.

He needs to evacuate or he'll be sent to Riker's Island

[A-L-E-X]

Two of the old time storms I continue to be impressed by is August 1893 (which we already discussed as destroying Hogs Island) and the Great September 1815 storm which actually created Long Beach Barrier Island by separating it from the Rockaway Peninsula.

I think the idea that west of the track doesn't get severe conditions is misinformation.... check out where that storm tracked and what happened.

http://en.wikipedia....er_Gale_of_1815

The storm struck Long Island on September 23, 1815, probably coming ashore near Center Moriches (Ludlum). On the south shore of Long Island it broke through the barrier beach and created the inlet that still isolates Long Beach, which had previously been an eastward extension of The Rockaways.

1815, 1944 and Donna all had massive effects on the west side of the storm and they ALL went WELL east of where this is progged to go.

[NorEaster27]

Howard beach is still going to have major flooding during high tide.

I really don't see that hapening but I have my camera ready.

[NorEaster27]

1815, 1944 and Donna all had massive effects on the west side of the storm and they ALL went WELL east of where this is progged to go.

and they weren't weakening canes / TS. A weakening storm will not mix its winds down as effectively a storm strengthening or at a steady state.

[NorEaster27]

That hasn't even hit North Carolina yet.

You're really pushing it.

sorry I was just agreeing with one of the mets in this thread.

[A-L-E-X]

and they weren't weakening canes / TS. A weakening storm will not mix its winds down as effectively a storm strengthening or at a steady state.

Well they were all weakening, but maybe not as much as this one is right now. Donna was probably the strongest of the bunch. I was just addressing the fallacy of no severe surge flooding on the west side of the storm. That is more a function of the geography of our coastline.

[CAT5ANDREW]

I really don't see that hapening but I have my camera ready.

Go down to the old howard beach side where Charles park is.that area will definetly be flooded.Crossbay Blvd will likely have water on it as well.

Broad Channel near the crossbay bridge will be flooded as well.

[Ed Lizard]

Note the radius of storm and gale force winds, even if Irene is a 70 mph storm at landfall, it will be pushing a surge bigger than a normal, more concentrated Cat 1 hurricane.

And note also that baroclinic effects from a strong jet streak passing to the North of Irene near landfall may delay any weakening.

Pressure rise has halted...

URNT12 KNHC 262117 CCA

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 26/20:38:40Z

B. 31 deg 36 min N

077 deg 19 min W

C. 700 mb 2665 m

D. 65 kt

E. 240 deg 56 nm

F. 331 deg 77 kt

G. 236 deg 79 nm

H. 950 mb

I. 11 C / 3048 m

J. 15 C / 3053 m

K. 2 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF308 2909A IRENE OB 04 CCA

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 91 KT NE QUAD 20:59:30Z

MAX FL TEMP 17 C 229 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR

INBOUND PK FL WNDS SW QUAD 78 KTS AT 79 NM RADIUS AND SECONDARY PEAK 76 KTS AT 36 NM

ONE INNER EYEWALL FRAGMENT NE QUAD WITHIN 12 NM OF FIX

PEAK WINDS FOUND IN OUTER RAINBAND 34 NM TO THE NE

;

[NorEaster27]

Well they were all weakening, but maybe not as much as this one is right now. Donna was probably the strongest of the bunch. I was just addressing the fallacy of no severe surge flooding on the west side of the storm. That is more a function of the geography of our coastline.

[A-L-E-X]

So I take it you dont agree with the evacuation orders for your area?

[NorEaster27]

Go down to the old howard beach side where Charles park is.that area will definetly be flooded.Crossbay Blvd will likely have water on it as well.

Broad Channel near the crossbay bridge will be flooded as well.

Yes but those areas flood all the time with every storm, we never evacuated before today.

[A-L-E-X]

and they weren't weakening canes / TS. A weakening storm will not mix its winds down as effectively a storm strengthening or at a steady state.

Ugh man-- all those storms were weakening too (that's why their wind fields expanded.) But not as much as this will if those models verify. 1944 was only a Cat 1 up here but look what it did to the Jersey Coastline and it went into eastern LI east of 1938!

[A-L-E-X]

not with the mandtory ones, I agree those with health issues should be moved to a safer location but no need to force everyone from their homes given this should be a TS when it hits our area as every hurricane forecast model shows.

Do you think it will be like a 65-70 mph tropical storm (which is what Bertha and Floyd were when they came up here)? If so, how much of a real difference is there between that and a 75-80 mph hurricane?

[A-L-E-X]

Yes but those areas flood all the time with every storm, we never evacuated before today.

Where are you going to go?