jasonli18t Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 there really is no such thing as a "mandatory" evacuation. It basically means that if you choose to stay, you are abandoning protection from local authorities and are on your own and that there is no guarentee that roads/bridges in/out of your town will stay open or passable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Its amazing how even the inferior models, eta and rsm are also locked into the euro type solution of riding Jersey coast and then landfall from ENJ to Nassau County. Look like 18z NAM is about to follow that as well. I don't disagree with that solution. It seems that there was some misunderstanding on what the Euro is showing. If one runs the maps off Plymouth State for the Northeast, the Euro shows Irene centered in extreme SE PA at 48 hours (http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbcalc2.html). That's a solution I don't agree with. A solution where Irene makes landfall anywhere in an area running from NYC to western Suffolk County is quite reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NAM landfalls somewhere in Suffolk county: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NAM landfalls somewhere in Suffolk county: It has been back and forth east and west on and off run. Its been on the eastern side of solutions I would say. We have a very narrow landfall path between here and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I believe the core of the heaviest rains will be NW and N of New York City with the center coming so close to us.We will get heavy rains for a time but upstate NY NEPA and Northern Conn is going to get socked.There could be historic flooding is some of the rivers up there. I agree with this and have been telling folks all day saying "oh will just go west to the Poconos" (including my wife and mother, lol) that it would be a colossal mistake to do that. They will have 50 mph winds and 8 inches of rain in parts of NE PA and it would be foolish to think they'd be outsmarting the storm by going there. On top of that, good luck getting back afterwards. Routes 80 and 78 will be flooded in many areas and probably would be impassable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 there really is no such thing as a "mandatory" evacuation. It basically means that if you choose to stay, you are abandoning protection from local authorities and are on your own and that there is no guarentee that roads/bridges in/out of your town will stay open or passable. While the local government may be able to impose a fine, or threaten more extreme measures like imprisonment, I don't disagree with this assertion. I'm just glad it will coerce at least a few of those who stayed behind to actually start heeding the warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 FWIW, Steve D's latest tweets: nynjpaweather Steven DiMartino Studying all the data, I am becoming confident that Irene is driving the dry air out of the circulation.6 minutes ago nynjpaweather Steven DiMartino This should lead to a period of intensification, perhaps rapid intensification this evening.5 minutes ago nynjpaweather Steven DiMartino Moist air and convection is now consolidating around the center of Irene and reestablishing the Central Dense Overcast and Eye Wall.4 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't disagree with that solution. It seems that there was some misunderstanding on what the Euro is showing. If one runs the maps off Plymouth State for the Northeast, the Euro shows Irene centered in extreme SE PA at 48 hours (http://vortex.plymou...u/grbcalc2.html). That's a solution I don't agree with. A solution where Irene makes landfall anywhere in an area running from NYC to western Suffolk County is quite reasonable. That doesn't look correct. Hour 48, of the 12z euro has the center just inland off Atlantic City: And at hour 51, the center is located on top of Staten Island: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It has been back and forth east and west on and off run. Its been on the eastern side of solutions I would say. We have a very narrow landfall path between here and NYC. Yeah-- not that different from what happens in winter lol. 0z/12z are usually the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Wow AG, does what the Euro show represent close to a worst case scenario for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 i think people arent focusing on the rainfall amounts. places that never flood will flood...12 inches of rain...where will it go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The 12z NAM looked to make landfall just east of Long Beach, and the 18z NAM makes landfall around Bay Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Wow AG, does what the Euro show represent close to a worst case scenario for NYC? I would say 10 miles east of that path to avoid land with Jersey, would be the worst case, but this is close. The wind maps show 50-60knot winds, Sustained for almost all the Jersey shore and almost into southern Brooklyn as well. 45knot sustained for NYC and all of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Plenty of runs left to watch this thing. I gotta admit, I am out of model tracking shape. Had to take a three hour nap last night this wore me out yesterday Good things its not winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The 12z NAM looked to make landfall just east of Long Beach, and the 18z NAM makes landfall around Bay Shore. Well it is the 18z lol-- it seems like 0z/12z and 6z/18z seem to follow these swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tizod Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 When do you guys think they will start issuing Hurricane Warnings for the city and boroughs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 When do you guys think they will start issuing Hurricane Warnings for the city and boroughs? In about 12 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Well it is the 18z lol-- it seems like 0z/12z and 6z/18z seem to follow these swings. Yeah, there are really no trends. There are just small swings/shifts during each model cycle. The storm will almost certainly be somewhere between NYC and Central Suffolk. I'm going for somewhere between Atlantic Beach and Bay Shore at this point. I want to be on the RFQ so I'm hoping for Atlantic Beach... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Well it is the 18z lol-- it seems like 0z/12z and 6z/18z seem to follow these swings. One of the December misses before the 12/26 event last year there was a potential storm threat which literally came west on every 06 and 18 run and went east on the 12 and 00 runs...for some reason this happens with certain systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 In about 12 minutes. I wonder if they will issue Hurricane warnings yet given the weakening trend today. It's quite possible this arrives as a 70mph TS especially if it landfalls over NC and/or the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I would say 10 miles east of that path to avoid land with Jersey, would be the worst case, but this is close. The wind maps show 50-60knot winds, Sustained for almost all the Jersey shore and almost into southern Brooklyn as well. 45knot sustained for NYC and all of LI. Not bad..60knot for southern part of city..that will give hurricane gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Jersey City PD is planning on banning driving in the city on Sunday. Yikes. Sand bags are available now. Jeff Masters expects it to hit LI with sustained winds of no more than 65-75MPH.... http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1903 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 When do you guys think they will start issuing Hurricane Warnings for the city and boroughs? Possibly at the 5pm advisory, but definitly by the 11pm advisory, they have a plane in there right now which will give them a better idea as to whats going on. I think they will at least maintain its current intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hurricane warning issued for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hurricane Warnings fly all the way to Cape Cod now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think they go trop storm warnings west of NYC, hurricane warnings east...5 boros? In about 12 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Even in a strong TS they usually have hurricane warnings out, especially if they feel the eastern side coupled with a 25kt forward motion could produce hurricane force gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TOSAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND... BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC * NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 They do state its possible that Irene hits the area as a strong TS, I think thats most likely given the weakening we have seen today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 They do state its possible that Irene hits the area as a strong TS, I think thats most likely given the weakening we have seen today. a 70 mph TS and a 75-80 mph hurricane are virtually the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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