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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II


earthlight

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Right now they are. This evening and tonight will be important to determining whether a bearing to the right of north begins to manifest itself.

Hurricanes do not move in straight lines, they "stair step" so to be. The more intense the cane, the more zig zagging it does. Irene could very well wobble east at Cape May just to wobble west again and come right over the heart of the city, its not like a noreaster with that regard.

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but John, you didn't read far enough down, there are responses to those posts with posts from other mets which disagree strongly, and give sound reasoning as to why.

I read the entire thread, everybody has their opinion, but I think it's a pretty fair consensus that there is at least some dry air involvement.

What really bothered me about the post I responded to was the manner in which it was posted, which was a detriment to constructive discussion and unnecessary. I even took back my initial term of "simple meteorology" since it is, ultimately, not simple meteorology.

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Hurricanes do not move in straight lines, they "stair step" so to be. The more intense the cane, the more zig zagging it does. Irene could very well wobble east at Cape May just to wobble west again and come right over the heart of the city, its not like a noreaster with that regard.

Of course, they don't move in straight lines. I'm referring to average motions over 6-12 hours.

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lol...quote the whole conversation...those guys got owned

Whatever man...there are some disagreements in the thread. I'm not a meteorologist, but I think there are fair points on both sides...I personally think that the dry air has at least something to do with it.

I'm not quoting the entire thread...but there are several different meteorologists arguing over the topic...so I think it's fair to say that one group of meteorologists didn't "own" the other, and one group of meteorologists isn't better than the other.

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Whatever man...there are some disagreements in the thread. I'm not a meteorologist, but I think there are fair points on both sides...I personally think that the dry air has at least something to do with it.

i agree. instead of discussing it like its rocket science, just looking at this image tells me that there has to be atleast some dry air involved.

avn.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

starting to move more NNE now as well

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My forecast from the NWS for Rutherford NJ:

Sunday: Hurricane conditions possible. Rain, mainly before 4pm. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 76. North wind 45 to 65 mph decreasing to between 40 and 50 mph. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible.

they say 90 mph gusts for the city. wow

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Carl Parker of TWC just explained why there may be dry air intruding the system

definitely looks like dry air in there...but the west side is the healthy side...i guess it is so wrapped up the dry air got sucked around...still dont get why the western side would look so strong...

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I remember Tropical Storm Gaston in 2004,which flooded the Shockhoe bottom region of Richmond VA back in 2004 gained strength as it moved off of the VA coast.With the warmer waters off of the coast and less influence from the dry air entrainment leaves Irene room to strengthen or at the least,keep its current strength as it moves Northward towrds us.

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Whatever man...there are some disagreements in the thread. I'm not a meteorologist, but I think there are fair points on both sides...I personally think that the dry air has at least something to do with it.

I'm not quoting the entire thread...but there are several different meteorologists arguing over the topic...so I think it's fair to say that one group of meteorologists didn't "own" the other, and one group of meteorologists isn't better than the other.

I agree with you John. I do think that dry air is definitely not helping the cause. A little while ago, I jumped back into the main thread and posed the question about upwelling perhaps coming into play.. got a few responses.. One of the things LakeEffectKing mentioned was he felt the overall structure of the storm was working against itself.. anyways.. I know you probably went back through that thread anyway and might have read it so I don't want to state the obvious.

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I believe the core of the heaviest rains will be NW and N of New York City with the center coming so close to us.We will get heavy rains for a time but upstate NY NEPA and Northern Conn is going to get socked.There could be historic flooding is some of the rivers up there.

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It looks like the members that are inland and those that are farther offshore are producing a mean over western Long Island. A little deceiving.

Thats what a mean is for.

That is why I posted all the individuals and then you look at the mean, like Greek says.

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18Z NAM is east of the euro as it looks to take a jump to the right when it gets up to the jersey shore. Still a ton of surge and rain. Looks like GFS

Tonight's runs will be more informative, as then we will be within 48 hours of the center crossing the coast here. Plus the 0z/12z runs usually have the best data :P

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As much as I would've loved to have rode this one out at my house in Manasquan, which is located directly on the beach... Common sense led me in another direction.

Now for my friends with lesser common sense who gave me crap for telling them to get the hell out of there, at least the town took care of that for me. Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for the township.

http://www.app.com/article/20110826/NJNEWS/308260089/Manasquan-calls-for-mandatory-evacuation-of-the-beachfront

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That's not what I meant. Chris87 is one of the posters who disagreed with that premise, and he has a doctorate. But this is over and done with, moving on...

Thanks, Jake. I'm actually reading the whole conversation now. Hopefully, John is too :)

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