IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Right now they are. This evening and tonight will be important to determining whether a bearing to the right of north begins to manifest itself. Hurricanes do not move in straight lines, they "stair step" so to be. The more intense the cane, the more zig zagging it does. Irene could very well wobble east at Cape May just to wobble west again and come right over the heart of the city, its not like a noreaster with that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 but John, you didn't read far enough down, there are responses to those posts with posts from other mets which disagree strongly, and give sound reasoning as to why. I read the entire thread, everybody has their opinion, but I think it's a pretty fair consensus that there is at least some dry air involvement. What really bothered me about the post I responded to was the manner in which it was posted, which was a detriment to constructive discussion and unnecessary. I even took back my initial term of "simple meteorology" since it is, ultimately, not simple meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hurricanes do not move in straight lines, they "stair step" so to be. The more intense the cane, the more zig zagging it does. Irene could very well wobble east at Cape May just to wobble west again and come right over the heart of the city, its not like a noreaster with that regard. Of course, they don't move in straight lines. I'm referring to average motions over 6-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 lol...quote the whole conversation...those guys got owned Whatever man...there are some disagreements in the thread. I'm not a meteorologist, but I think there are fair points on both sides...I personally think that the dry air has at least something to do with it. I'm not quoting the entire thread...but there are several different meteorologists arguing over the topic...so I think it's fair to say that one group of meteorologists didn't "own" the other, and one group of meteorologists isn't better than the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Whatever man...there are some disagreements in the thread. I'm not a meteorologist, but I think there are fair points on both sides...I personally think that the dry air has at least something to do with it. i agree. instead of discussing it like its rocket science, just looking at this image tells me that there has to be atleast some dry air involved. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html starting to move more NNE now as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 LB Surf Cam for anyone who wants to monitor the building surf. http://www.longbeachsurfcam.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Carl Parker of TWC just explained why there may be dry air intruding the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 My forecast from the NWS for Rutherford NJ: Sunday: Hurricane conditions possible. Rain, mainly before 4pm. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 76. North wind 45 to 65 mph decreasing to between 40 and 50 mph. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible. they say 90 mph gusts for the city. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Carl Parker of TWC just explained why there may be dry air intruding the system definitely looks like dry air in there...but the west side is the healthy side...i guess it is so wrapped up the dry air got sucked around...still dont get why the western side would look so strong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I remember Tropical Storm Gaston in 2004,which flooded the Shockhoe bottom region of Richmond VA back in 2004 gained strength as it moved off of the VA coast.With the warmer waters off of the coast and less influence from the dry air entrainment leaves Irene room to strengthen or at the least,keep its current strength as it moves Northward towrds us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yeah. Irene started to look healthy but now back to not so good. Would a diurnal cycle help her out tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Whatever man...there are some disagreements in the thread. I'm not a meteorologist, but I think there are fair points on both sides...I personally think that the dry air has at least something to do with it. I'm not quoting the entire thread...but there are several different meteorologists arguing over the topic...so I think it's fair to say that one group of meteorologists didn't "own" the other, and one group of meteorologists isn't better than the other. I agree with you John. I do think that dry air is definitely not helping the cause. A little while ago, I jumped back into the main thread and posed the question about upwelling perhaps coming into play.. got a few responses.. One of the things LakeEffectKing mentioned was he felt the overall structure of the storm was working against itself.. anyways.. I know you probably went back through that thread anyway and might have read it so I don't want to state the obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hoboken mayor is asking everyone to leave, and the New Brunswick PD is asking everyone to move their cars to higher ground near the Raritan River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 srefs at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Where will I see better winds? Holmdel, NJ in a house about 90ASL or on the 13th floor of a building that rises above the ones around it on the UWS of Manhattan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 15z ETA. No change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 srefs at landfall. It looks like the members that are inland and those that are farther offshore are producing a mean over western Long Island. A little deceiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Its amazing how even the inferior models, eta and rsm are also locked into the euro type solution of riding Jersey coast and then landfall from ENJ to Nassau County. Look like 18z NAM is about to follow that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It looks like the members that are inland and those that are farther offshore are producing a mean over western Long Island. A little deceiving. Thats what a mean is for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 lol...quote the whole conversation...those guys got owned And I doubt more than maybe 5% of mets actually have doctorates lol. Most dont even have masters degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z NAM at hour 42 is right off the coast of southern Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I live 10 min away from rockaway you have got to see the traffic from people leaving, lines at gas stations traffic is wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I believe the core of the heaviest rains will be NW and N of New York City with the center coming so close to us.We will get heavy rains for a time but upstate NY NEPA and Northern Conn is going to get socked.There could be historic flooding is some of the rivers up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It looks like the members that are inland and those that are farther offshore are producing a mean over western Long Island. A little deceiving. Thats what a mean is for. That is why I posted all the individuals and then you look at the mean, like Greek says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18Z NAM is east of the euro as it looks to take a jump to the right when it gets up to the jersey shore. Still a ton of surge and rain. Looks like GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18Z NAM is east of the euro as it looks to take a jump to the right when it gets up to the jersey shore. Still a ton of surge and rain. Looks like GFS Tonight's runs will be more informative, as then we will be within 48 hours of the center crossing the coast here. Plus the 0z/12z runs usually have the best data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That is why I posted all the individuals and then you look at the mean, like Greek says. I am just saying that not many members actually look like the mean itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 And I doubt more than maybe 5% of mets actually have doctorates lol. Most dont even have masters degrees. That's not what I meant. Chris87 is one of the posters who disagreed with that premise, and he has a doctorate. But this is over and done with, moving on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 As much as I would've loved to have rode this one out at my house in Manasquan, which is located directly on the beach... Common sense led me in another direction. Now for my friends with lesser common sense who gave me crap for telling them to get the hell out of there, at least the town took care of that for me. Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for the township. http://www.app.com/article/20110826/NJNEWS/308260089/Manasquan-calls-for-mandatory-evacuation-of-the-beachfront Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That's not what I meant. Chris87 is one of the posters who disagreed with that premise, and he has a doctorate. But this is over and done with, moving on... Thanks, Jake. I'm actually reading the whole conversation now. Hopefully, John is too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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