whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If your car is to the NW of any big tree,I would move it if at all possible. My garage is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 But a similar but larger storm that ends up possibly 50-100 miles further west would seem to put a greater impact right over the NYC metro. One that comes inland over NJ? who knows That i agree with completely.. If this is like Gloria but over NYC - yes that would be tremendous.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This storm will be a stronger version of 3/13/10 with heavier rains and stronger winds.The big difference will be with the fact that the trees are fully leafed.While it wont be as bad as it looked earlier,this will still be the tropical system of our lifetime.Anybody who believes otherwise is just being delusional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Many of us thought it was going to be Cat 4 this morning.. but it looks less potent on each advisory...why is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 But isn't there the possibility that it spends more time over land and weakens it more than the models are showing? I agree that there's amazing model consensus but one rule of thumb with hurricanes unlike most other large scale storms is that they can have a mind of their own. It interacts with with the coast line even in NC..it's not going way inland..why are some of you making it like it's going to be near Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yea it'll be going over the Pamlico Sound in NC, very very warm water there (>28C). Irene crossing over a few islands and the Pamlico Sound is likely different for it than crossing the mainland west of there. The key for us I think is if it also crosses over the Delmarva and NJ. If it stays offshore, the wind/surge effects here will likely be worse. Let's see tonight when the shift slightly NNE should begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Irene really is having a hard time maintaining and/or building cold cloud tops.. I'm really kinda surprised.. B/c the storm itself - symmetrically looks good. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Definite jog evident to the right now on satellite, especially on the zoomed out view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Gloria kinda looked like crap in the same vicinity as where Irene is currently.. It was less symmetrical, but much colder cloud tops. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hurricane_Gloria_south_of_North_Carolina.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Many of us thought it was going to be Cat 4 this morning.. but it looks less potent on each advisory...why is this? Intensity forecasting, at times, is actually much more of a difficulty than track... I think the basics are well understood by most... warm waters over 27C and little shear are essential... but sometimes the storm structure plays an important role.. something i brought up several days ago that hasn't been discussed much.. and I'm not sure if it is playing into the equation... but upwelling can sometimes squash intensity.. That is the case when you have a slow moving storm that disturbs the ocean enough to essentially brings up cooler waters from below... you won't see it in a fast moving storm because it doesn't have the time to be able to adjust to that cooler water.. this storm.. not so sure.. I mean, it's moving at like 14 knots.. sort of middle of the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Definite jog evident to the right now on satellite, especially on the zoomed out view. Yup... 0.2 W to the west. Meanwhile all of Zone A and Zone B Rockaways under mandatory evacuation now and mass transit will be shut down by noon tomorrow. Bridges will be closed when winds reach 50 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I wonder why the models continue to deepen the pressures even as it goes north of the Carolinas though, I'm guessing the higher latitudes play some sort of a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Goes 13 at 200pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z models have the storm cutting through central LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE IRENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 245 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... .NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED WIND AND RAINFALL INFORMATION. .AREAS AFFECTED... THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK... NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN MIDDLESEX... NORTHERN NEW LONDON...SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN... SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW LONDON...EASTERN PASSAIC... HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...EASTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX... EASTERN ESSEX...WESTERN UNION...EASTERN UNION...PUTNAM... ROCKLAND...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...BRONX...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK... SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...NORTHERN QUEENS... NORTHERN NASSAU...SOUTHERN QUEENS AND SOUTHERN NASSAU. FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT COASTAL WATERS AND NEW YORK HARBOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... WESTERN PASSAIC...ORANGE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK... NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA. PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS. .STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2N...LONGITUDE 77.5W. THIS WAS ABOUT 690 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NEW YORK CITY NY...OR ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MONTAUK POINT NY. STORM MOTION WAS N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 100 MPH. .SITUATION OVERVIEW... HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE OUTER BANDS FROM IRENE LIKELY BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE IN TORRENTIAL RAIN AND STRENGTHENING WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...FLOODING RAINS...AND SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING. WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS THE IMPACTS OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE AREA DUE TO THE SIZE OF THE STORM. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE HURRICANE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING DAMAGE IF THE GREATEST SURGE COINCIDES WITH THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDES ON SUNDAY. THIS SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE THREATENING WAVES. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. BASED ON RECENT HEAVY RAINS...IF THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCUR...MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY. SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE. AS A RESULT A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. .PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT... BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION... PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Take a screen shot of this sounding from the 12Z NAM. Check out the Helicity! Sweat is up there with elevated instabiilty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Lee Goldberg: Talking about a 4-8' surge on the rivers and in the city and up to a 10' surge on Long Island with gusts in the 80-100 mph area. Rainfall totals 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like an eyewall is trying to form and close off again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like an eyewall is trying to form and close off again. It's going over ~30C gulf stream waters right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 There is still an absolute ton of dry air working into the storm...the water vapor loop is highly unimpressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Pretty good thunderstorm potential from 12z saturday onward through the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I wonder if there will be any lightning with the rains when irene gets up here.Belle,Gloria,Floyd did not have any lightning when they got here,not even in the most intense rainfall.Usually lightning happens with weaker tropical depressions up here.There is currently alot of lightning with the bands in NC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 How lfar do the gulf stream waters go north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Pretty good thunderstorm potential from 12z saturday onward through the afternoon<img src="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110826191442.gif" /> Perhaps not.Lightning usually is little to none in tropical systems of this intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Lee Goldberg: Talking about a 4-8' surge on the rivers and in the city and up to a 10' surge on Long Island with gusts in the 80-100 mph area. Rainfall totals 8-12" I'd like to see Irene start to shift east a little soon, because if it interacts with the NC mainland too much, it will weaken more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Don, the GGEM and the UKIE have made massive moves towards the euro and they almost mirror its solution now. The srefs, rsm, eta and many other inferior models as well. And some of the tropical models have shifted a touch east. Of course, I could be wrong. I think we'll have a better idea once we see if Irene begins to develop a somewhat east of north movement this evening and early tonight. If not, the Euro's idea will gain support. If, however, that movement develops, something closer to the GFS' idea will look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 There is still an absolute ton of dry air working into the storm...the water vapor loop is highly unimpressive. That's to be expected with a storm like this coming close to our continent. It was certainly Gloria's undoing back in 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 There is still an absolute ton of dry air working into the storm...the water vapor loop is highly unimpressive. I reccomend you read the main thread, lots of information on there from mets about why the dry air is not being drawn in as alot of us think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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