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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II


earthlight

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But a similar but larger storm that ends up possibly 50-100 miles further west would seem to put a greater impact right over the NYC metro. One that comes inland over NJ? who knows

That i agree with completely.. If this is like Gloria but over NYC - yes that would be tremendous..

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This storm will be a stronger version of 3/13/10 with heavier rains and stronger winds.The big difference will be with the fact that the trees are fully leafed.While it wont be as bad as it looked earlier,this will still be the tropical system of our lifetime.Anybody who believes otherwise is just being delusional.

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But isn't there the possibility that it spends more time over land and weakens it more than the models are showing? I agree that there's amazing model consensus but one rule of thumb with hurricanes unlike most other large scale storms is that they can have a mind of their own.

It interacts with with the coast line even in NC..it's not going way inland..why are some of you making it like it's going to be near Richmond

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Yea it'll be going over the Pamlico Sound in NC, very very warm water there (>28C).

Irene crossing over a few islands and the Pamlico Sound is likely different for it than crossing the mainland west of there. The key for us I think is if it also crosses over the Delmarva and NJ. If it stays offshore, the wind/surge effects here will likely be worse. Let's see tonight when the shift slightly NNE should begin.

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Many of us thought it was going to be Cat 4 this morning.. but it looks less potent on each advisory...why is this?

Intensity forecasting, at times, is actually much more of a difficulty than track... I think the basics are well understood by most... warm waters over 27C and little shear are essential... but sometimes the storm structure plays an important role.. something i brought up several days ago that hasn't been discussed much.. and I'm not sure if it is playing into the equation... but upwelling can sometimes squash intensity.. That is the case when you have a slow moving storm that disturbs the ocean enough to essentially brings up cooler waters from below... you won't see it in a fast moving storm because it doesn't have the time to be able to adjust to that cooler water.. this storm.. not so sure.. I mean, it's moving at like 14 knots.. sort of middle of the road.

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Definite jog evident to the right now on satellite, especially on the zoomed out view.

Yup... 0.2 W to the west.

Meanwhile all of Zone A and Zone B Rockaways under mandatory evacuation now and mass transit will be shut down by noon tomorrow. Bridges will be closed when winds reach 50 mph

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

HURRICANE IRENE LOCAL STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

245 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT

INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...

.NEW INFORMATION...

UPDATED WIND AND RAINFALL INFORMATION.

.AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT

LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...

NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND ADJACENT

COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN MIDDLESEX...

NORTHERN NEW LONDON...SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN...

SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW LONDON...EASTERN PASSAIC...

HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...EASTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...

EASTERN ESSEX...WESTERN UNION...EASTERN UNION...PUTNAM...

ROCKLAND...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER...NEW YORK

(MANHATTAN)...BRONX...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...KINGS

(BROOKLYN)...NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...

SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...NORTHERN QUEENS...

NORTHERN NASSAU...SOUTHERN QUEENS AND SOUTHERN NASSAU.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF

LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT COASTAL WATERS AND NEW YORK HARBOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

WESTERN PASSAIC...ORANGE.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...

NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. PLEASE LISTEN

CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR

AREA.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED

INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...

AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 31.2N...LONGITUDE 77.5W. THIS WAS ABOUT 690 MILES

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NEW YORK CITY NY...OR ABOUT 750 MILES

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MONTAUK POINT NY. STORM MOTION WAS N OR

360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 100 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...

HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN

SEABOARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE OUTER BANDS FROM IRENE

LIKELY BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO

SATURDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY TO RAPIDLY

DETERIORATE IN TORRENTIAL RAIN AND STRENGTHENING WINDS SATURDAY

NIGHT. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING

WINDS...FLOODING RAINS...AND SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.

WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST

TRACK...AS THE IMPACTS OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE

AREA DUE TO THE SIZE OF THE STORM.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES

FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT

TRACK...INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE HURRICANE...THERE IS POTENTIAL

FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING DAMAGE IF THE GREATEST

SURGE COINCIDES WITH THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDES ON SUNDAY.

THIS SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE

THREATENING WAVES.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY

HIGHER AMOUNTS. BASED ON RECENT HEAVY RAINS...IF THESE RAINFALL

AMOUNTS OCCUR...MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY.

SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL

ALSO BE AN ISSUE. AS A RESULT A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST

DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...NORTHEASTERN NEW

JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR

HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN.

LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF

NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY

ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED

THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR

HURRICANE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...

BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR

ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD

RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS

FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO

THE FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...

PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR

LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

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I wonder if there will be any lightning with the rains when irene gets up here.Belle,Gloria,Floyd did not have any lightning when they got here,not even in the most intense rainfall.Usually lightning happens with weaker tropical depressions up here.There is currently alot of lightning with the bands in NC now.

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Lee Goldberg:

Talking about a 4-8' surge on the rivers and in the city and up to a 10' surge on Long Island with gusts in the 80-100 mph area. Rainfall totals 8-12"

I'd like to see Irene start to shift east a little soon, because if it interacts with the NC mainland too much, it will weaken more.

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Don, the GGEM and the UKIE have made massive moves towards the euro and they almost mirror its solution now. The srefs, rsm, eta and many other inferior models as well.

And some of the tropical models have shifted a touch east. Of course, I could be wrong. I think we'll have a better idea once we see if Irene begins to develop a somewhat east of north movement this evening and early tonight. If not, the Euro's idea will gain support. If, however, that movement develops, something closer to the GFS' idea will look better.

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