jm1220 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Carried away I think..I mean it's gonna be bad but we are not dealing with Katrina here..might be flooding but most of my old neighborhood has 6 storied apartment bulidings The water doesn't automatically go down significantly as the storm slowly weakens... also, the large size of the hurricane will carry more of a surge than the usual storm of that strength. 70-80 mph wind with that water is nothing to sneeze at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Voluntary evacuations for southwestern and downtown Jersey City now. Announcement coming soon about possible Hoboken evacuations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Carried away I think..I mean it's gonna be bad but we are not dealing with Katrina here..might be flooding but most of my old neighborhood has 6 storied apartment bulidings Our coastline does not need a major hurricane to cause a substantial storm surge.Because of the way the coastline is shaped here,there is a funneling effect.THe DEC 1992 Noreaster produced waves and surge so bad,there should have been evacuations back then had it been known how bad it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The water doesn't automatically go down significantly as the storm slowly weakens... also, the large size of the hurricane will carry more of a surge than the usual storm of that strength. 70-80 mph wind with that water is nothing to sneeze at. The issue now though is also the center possibly making landfall over NJ or DE, if this occurs you lose the surge factor as well....you'll still get a pileup effect due to wind fetch but the true surge from the storm's center would no longer occur. My concern now is if this thing winds up laying an egg NYC emergency management officials and NHC should have everyone's trust back in the NYC area sometime around the ERA when my unborn son has grandchildren, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The issue now though is also the center possibly making landfall over NJ or DE, if this occurs you lose the surge factor as well....you'll still get a pileup effect due to wind fetch but the true surge from the storm's center would no longer occur. My concern now is if this thing winds up laying an egg NYC emergency management officials and NHC should have everyone's trust back in the NYC area sometime around the ERA when my unborn son has grandchildren, Yea the chance that this thing lays an egg in the nyc east region would infuriate a lot of people and the trust would be gone. That would really be the worst part about it cause having this many people evacuate already is making a big deal of this storm. Right now I don't think it will make landfall in jersey still in the nyc area east a bit, but who knows though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The storm looks great symmetrically speaking.. but those cloud tops have really warmed and may be just coming back now as we speak, but I'm not so sure we have much more than a minimal hurricane once it gets here.. Unless it really charges up in the next 24 hours as it goes through the Gulf Stream and what not.. Despite all that- the bottom line is that I think the effects of this storm will be very similar to Gloria.. I've been pretty clear w/ that.. Gloria at landfall was a moderate cat 1 storm... To get a strong cat 2 storm into long island would prove to be a complete disaster.. Lets hope we only get a minimal hurricane or less.. jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yea the chance that this thing lays an egg in the nyc east region would infuriate a lot of people and the trust would be gone. That would really be the worst part about it cause having this many people evacuate already is making a big deal of this storm. Right now I don't think it will make landfall in jersey still in the nyc area east a bit, but who knows though I think it's more likely that the storm fades east a bit as it heads up here rather than going inland. It's a more climatologically likely track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The issue now though is also the center possibly making landfall over NJ or DE, if this occurs you lose the surge factor as well....you'll still get a pileup effect due to wind fetch but the true surge from the storm's center would no longer occur. My concern now is if this thing winds up laying an egg NYC emergency management officials and NHC should have everyone's trust back in the NYC area sometime around the ERA when my unborn son has grandchildren, well the Euro shows it rides the Jersey shore..that will not weaken it that much..I mean I think of Inland in Northern NJ ..PA ect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 But a similar but larger storm that ends up possibly 50-100 miles further west would seem to put a greater impact right over the NYC metro. One that comes inland over NJ? who knows The storm looks great symmetrically speaking.. but those cloud tops have really warmed and may be just coming back now as we speak, but I'm not so sure we have much more than a minimal hurricane once it gets here.. Unless it really charges up in the next 24 hours as it goes through the Gulf Stream and what not.. Despite all that- the bottom line is that I think the effects of this storm will be very similar to Gloria.. I've been pretty clear w/ that.. Gloria at landfall was a moderate cat 1 storm... To get a strong cat 2 storm into long island would prove to be a complete disaster.. Lets hope we only get a minimal hurricane or less.. jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Its clear the euro is locked in. There is no other track. Euro has shown the same exact track for many runs. Ride up the Jersey coast and right through NYC. Other models have followed. Wont go inland to PA and its not going east of LI. The error of margin off that euro track is maybe 20-50 miles tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Its clear the euro is locked in. There is no other track. Euro has shown the same exact track for many runs. Ride up the Jersey coast and right through NYC. Other models have followed. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The issue now though is also the center possibly making landfall over NJ or DE, if this occurs you lose the surge factor as well....you'll still get a pileup effect due to wind fetch but the true surge from the storm's center would no longer occur. My concern now is if this thing winds up laying an egg NYC emergency management officials and NHC should have everyone's trust back in the NYC area sometime around the ERA when my unborn son has grandchildren, unfortunately, that's sort of the nature of the beast. All you can do is make the best decision you can based upon the best facts you can ascertain at any given point in time. I think there is enough media hype, picture, videos from the carribean that shows that this storm is nothing to mess with and it's prudent to risk "crying wolf" in this situation, which you really aren't doing at this late stage in the game............... but again, it also comes down to just human behavior... and the bottom line is we've never really experienced something of this magnitude so there's more of an attitude that "it just can't happen here". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The overwhelming consensus if for a track right along the NJ coast and up into western LI, just east of the city, I'm not quite sure why people are still questioning this at this point. The mean guidance is dead locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Not good. People still debating track and landfall. Not happening. Its the euro track of up the Jersey coast and into NYC. Only thing debateable is the strength of Irene and whats left. But regardless, the storm surge will be severe somewhere in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The clear track like ag3 said is most likely going to be jersey coast to nyc and 5 boroughs, nassau, suffolk getting the hurricane sustained winds or very strong tropical winds with much higher gusts to 90 mph possibly, torrentail rain, high storm surge and isolated tornadoes which surprisingly hasn't been mentioned much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The overwhelming consensus if for a track right along the NJ coast and up into western LI, just east of the city, I'm not quite sure why people are still questioning this at this point. The mean guidance is dead locked. Not even into Western LI. Up the Jersey coast and into NENJ to Western Nassau is the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 unfortunately, that's sort of the nature of the beast. All you can do is make the best decision you can based upon the best facts you can ascertain at any given point in time. I think there is enough media hype, picture, videos from the carribean that shows that this storm is nothing to mess with and it's prudent to risk "crying wolf" in this situation, which you really aren't doing at this late stage in the game............... but again, it also comes down to just human behavior... and the bottom line is we've never really experienced something of this magnitude so there's more of an attitude that "it just can't happen here". Excellent post!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 My guess is it's down to a strong tropical storm by the time it gets up here. If it's struggling this much already, you can imagine how much it will weaken when it interacts with the land of North Carolina. I'd be surprised if it's still a hurricane by the time it nears south Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The clear track like ag3 said is most likely going to be jersey coast to nyc and 5 boroughs, nassau, suffolk getting the hurricane sustained winds or very strong tropical winds with much higher gusts to 90 mph possibly, torrentail rain, high storm surge and isolated tornadoes which surprisingly hasn't been mentioned much I agree with the track statement but I would tone the winds you mentioned. I dont think too many areas will get sustained hurricane force winds. But most will get gusts past hurricane force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 People still debating track and landfall. Not happening. Its the euro track of up the Jersey coast and into NYC. Only thing debateable is the strength of Irene and whats left. But regardless, the storm surge will be severe somwhere in our area. this has been the Euro track for 6 runs in a row..that's it folks..the master of models has spoken..case closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Some convection exploding in the middle. It is looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If your car is to the NW of any big tree,I would move it if at all possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 this has been the Euro track for 6 runs in a row..that's it folks..the master of models has spoken..case closed And every model has moved towards it. I dont know why there is even a quastion as to track anymore. The concensus is as overwhleming as it can be. Now all that left is intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yes....the storm may weaken up here from a "tropical standpoint" but once the affects of the jet stream take over, your going to see an expansion of the rain shield on the NW side and prolific rainfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 My concern now is if this thing winds up laying an egg NYC emergency management officials and NHC should have everyone's trust back in the NYC area sometime around the ERA when my unborn son has grandchildren, IMO, even as the Euro has been very consistent, I don't think its solution will verify. At this stage, it is no longer materially superior to the GFS. If Irene begins to develop an easterly component to its motion this evening and if the other modeling does not trend in the Euro's direction, I suspect that it will be safe to discount the Euro. Hopefully, no matter what happens, the NHC's credibility won't be damaged. Otherwise, that could set the stage for disastrous outcome in the future should people ignore the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 My guess is it's down to a strong tropical storm by the time it gets up here. If it's struggling this much already, you can imagine how much it will weaken when it interacts with the land of North Carolina. I'd be surprised if it's still a hurricane by the time it nears south Jersey. It interacts with with the coast line even in NC..it's not going way inland..why are some of you making it like it's going to be near Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 IMO, even as the Euro has been very consistent, I don't think its solution will verify. At this stage, it is no longer materially superior to the GFS. If Irene begins to develop an easterly component to its motion this evening and if the other modeling does not trend in the Euro's direction, I suspect that it will be safe to discount the Euro. Hopefully, no matter what happens, the NHC's credibility won't be damaged. Otherwise, that could set the stage for disastrous outcome in the future should people ignore the NHC. Don, the GGEM and the UKIE have made massive moves towards the euro and they almost mirror its solution now. The srefs, rsm, eta and many other inferior models as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 My guess is it's down to a strong tropical storm by the time it gets up here. If it's struggling this much already, you can imagine how much it will weaken when it interacts with the land of North Carolina. I'd be surprised if it's still a hurricane by the time it nears south Jersey. I'm thinking something similar. Right now the forecast is to bring a category 2 storm into NC and it exits also as a category 2. Right now she's only at 100mph. Unless she strengthens considerably I find it highly unlikely that she won't lose 5 -15 mph in wind speeds as she exits NC, which would bring her down to a category 1 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It interacts with with the coast line even in NC..it's not going way inland..why are some of you making it like it's going to be near Richmond Yea it'll be going over the Pamlico Sound in NC, very very warm water there (>28C). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Can someone explain how jet interaction increases core wind speeds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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