ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NAM looks a tad east, no one is looking at it? Yup. Pretty east at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yes, faster and a touch further east so far. Faster for sure, east not to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yup. Pretty east at hour 60. Compared to what run, not18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hour 63, tucked in closer to coast. Not bad at all. Huge impact to all of the area: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFEAST_0z/wrfloop.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The increased speed on the nam is a pretty dramatic shift for a 6 hr run. I really cant see any significant shift east or west, the trajectory looks the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 It's a tick east...but these kind of fluctuations are going to happen when a computer tries to predict a hurricane. Overall...the models have been incredibly, incredibly consistent in the general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Nam looks like it just south of western Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hour 63, tucked in closer to coast. Not bad at all. Huge impact to all of the area: http://www.meteo.psu...op.html#picture yea but landfall looks like eastern long island thats a pretty strong east trend. This is almost always the case as we approach 48hrs in, its not that unlikely that this can still pass SE of Montauk. That would greatly reduce the Impact from NYC on west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Not east, just much faster. If anything, the W ATL ridge is going to have a stronger influence. 18z-78hr vs. 00z-63hr is just a bit east both directly east of Belmar. Really not a huge deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It's a tick east...but these kind of fluctuations are going to happen when a computer tries to predict a hurricane. Overall...the models have been incredibly, incredibly consistent in the general idea. this is really the worse case scenario for long island as far winds, rain and storm surge correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 yea but landfall looks like eastern long island thats a pretty strong east trend. This is almost always the case as we approach 48hrs in, its not that unlikely that this can still pass SE of Montauk. That would greatly reduce the Impact from NYC on west. at this point, the storm is so big, even if it passed SE of montauk, tropical storm force winds would be felt into western NJ...montauk is 120 miles from nyc, tropical storm winds extend out over 200 miles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The 0z NAM is definitely offshore. It might miss LI and target RI and the Islands instead. This scenario would be a much lower impact than if Irene were to brush or hit southern NJ. Still high impact, but not extreme. Overall this is a minor fluctuation and well within the expected variation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 <b></b>yea but landfall looks like eastern long island thats a pretty strong east trend. This is almost always the case as we approach 48hrs in, its not that unlikely that this can still pass SE of Montauk. That would greatly reduce the Impact from NYC on west.<b></b><b></b><b></b><b></b>Even if it did move that far East we would still see significant effects and Howard beach is still going to be flooded.This storm is massive and is going to expand more as it moves North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 at this point, the storm is so big, even if it passed SE of montauk, tropical storm force winds would be felt into western NJ...montauk is 120 miles from nyc, tropical storm winds extend out over 200 miles... Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Maybe I'm blind it don't look as far east as pepole are making it to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 this is really the worse case scenario for long island as far winds, rain and storm surge correct? Most of LI looks to be on the west side as Irene makes her closest pass. Surge and flooding in advance, but a significant inundation would be averted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Impact where? 48 hours to till expected impact time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Even if it did move that far East we would still see significant effects and Howard beach is still going to be flooded.This storm is massive and s going to expend more as it moves North. If the storm is 100 miles eastof NYC, NYC would not see any storm surge releated flooding at all, it wold be from the hamptons on east. The storm isn't going to have TS force winds 200 miles to its west at this latitude, just not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 what did you expect..the exact position on every run..48 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like a Hurricane Gloria track on the 00z NAM....maybe even a bit east of Gloria's track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like a Hurricane Gloria track on the 00z NAM....maybe even a bit east of Gloria's track. no, much futher east that Gloria and closer to hurricane Bob. The NAM does not make landfall on LI. From Will, NAM is basically Westerly, RI to BOS...flooding issues for interior but worst wind would be confined to the south coast of MA and the Cape in that track. NAM would bring less than TS force winds to NYC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If the storm is 100 miles eastof NYC, NYC would not see any storm surge releated flooding at all, it wold be from the hamptons on east. The storm isn't going to have TS force winds 200 miles to its west at this latitude, just not going to happen. Look at the size of the storm now.It is going to expand as it comes northward.We will feel the effects of it in a big way. Bob in Aug 1991 was East of LI and was a MUCH smaller more compact storm.We still had wind gusts near 45-50MPH here in Queens county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Why are people using the NAM to forecast a TC? Its verification scores are terrible even at 48hrs out. Can we not "discuss" it since we have the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If the storm is 100 miles eastof NYC, NYC would not see any storm surge releated flooding at all, it wold be from the hamptons on east. The storm isn't going to have TS force winds 200 miles to its west at this latitude, just not going to happen. There are still models that put it up in the poconos..havent you learned anything from watching model runs..50 mile shift is very common..and it's the NAM and it's a tropical system and its more than 48 hours..next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Why are people using the NAM to forecast a TC? Its verification scores are terrible even at 48hrs out. I actually agree with this. The GFS has been more consistent and to me that will be the tell all. Despite the Euro's inconsistencies so far we are now in it's wheelhouse and would tend to lean more to it for this 0z run. I think we are now also getting close enough in time frame to start watching the SREF's and the RGEM more seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Look at the size of the storm now.It is going to expand as it comes northward.We will feel the effects of it in a big way. Bob in Aug 1991 was East of LI and was a MUCH smaller more compact storm.We still had wind gusts near 45-50MPH here in Queens county. Agree Andrew..Bob did not come out of the deep tropics like irene is doing..Donna had the same track as the NAM is showing and the city had hurricane force winds..it's a bigger storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 no, much futher east that Gloria and closer to hurricane Bob. The NAM does not make landfall on LI. From Will, NAM would bring less than TS force winds to NYC.... You always do the same thing..even during winter storm..your the one going against every ones thinking.. you like being unique i guess lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Can we not "discuss" it since we have the time. You can discuss whatever you want but people are getting all excited about a slight shift on a non global model, that's weenieism at its best.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't think the NAM is right...it's beating down the North Atlantic ridge in a way the GFS and the ECWMF aren't doing. It's verifying stronger with the northern shortwave between 48 and 72 hours....heights look to be about 5 dm lower over Nova Scotia. If the storm is 100 miles eastof NYC, NYC would not see any storm surge releated flooding at all, it wold be from the hamptons on east. The storm isn't going to have TS force winds 200 miles to its west at this latitude, just not going to happen. that much is true...but we know how accurate the NAM is outside of 48 hours. Personally I think the NAM is almost garbage...in most situations. I'd go with the 12/18z GFS and ECMWF synoptics over the 00z NAM synoptics..even with the 6 hour "advantage." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Look at the size of the storm now.It is going to expand as it comes northward.We will feel the effects of it in a big way. Bob in Aug 1991 was East of LI and was a MUCH smaller more compact storm.We still had wind gusts near 45-50MPH here in Queens county. Plus, Irene is going to arrive at a different trajectory. It will start out further west, travel almost due north for a while, and then almost parallel a lot of LI when it turns ENE...this type of scenario prolongs storm surge, as opposed to a generic straight NE or N path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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