ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like a western LI landfall? Tough to tell on these maps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 ALL models show the dry air on the SE side of the storm after NC. It is associated with the purple line which is sort of a barrier between the tropics and the mid latitude. The storm accelorates and becomes more subtropical after it c rosses that line. It will be a halfacane by the time ot reaches us, with no real back end other than a time of strong NW wind after the eye passage. It could go from massive rainstorm to sunny in a few hours with this. I think there's a good chance of a sunny end to Sunday here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It's looking more and more likely that inland flooding along with coastal flooding and beach erosion will be the main stories here, as the jet streak really does it magic the QPF should expolde over our areas, historic flooding on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFS is speedier and has Irene here by 12z. Very bad news for high tide. I would weigh the speedier solutions over the slow ones given how hurricanes often accelerate at this latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The GFS ends up slightly east of the NAM, and not as heavy with the QPF, and ultimatly there is no significant differences, I'm calling it, game...set....match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It will be a halfacane by the time ot reaches us, with no real back end other than a time of strong NW wind after the eye passage. It could go from massive rainstorm to sunny in a few hours with this. I think there's a good chance of a sunny end to Sunday here. Both Gloria and Bob became sunny at the end, thats pretty typical for hurricanes here....they also seem to like hitting in the midday hour, Belle I believe was the only one to strike at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 http://maps.google.com/maps?q=40.582459,-73.953609&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=23.875,57.630033&num=1&vpsrc=0&z=16 Coworker lives here -- Think he should evacuate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 if the GFS is right the rain is over by early afternoon. Wouldn't surprise me at all if much of Sunday afternoon is just a partly sunny windy day. Both Gloria and Bob became sunny at the end, thats pretty typical for hurricanes here....they also seem to like hitting in the midday hour, Belle I believe was the only one to strike at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Both Gloria and Bob became sunny at the end, thats pretty typical for hurricanes here....they also seem to like hitting in the midday hour, Belle I believe was the only one to strike at night. Yeah-the presentation will likely resemble much more a noreaster up here than a tropical system. My real concern isn't the wind-it's the major surge. If this does happen to strike close to high tide, look out. Also, it's not booking at 40 mph the way many hurricanes do up here-lot of time to funnel water in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Both Gloria and Bob became sunny at the end, thats pretty typical for hurricanes here....they also seem to like hitting in the midday hour, Belle I believe was the only one to strike at night. I guess probably in part due to subsidence around the periphery.. but these things always tend to be faster up in our neck of the woods.. although I suppose this thing won't be the fastest one in the world.. it'll be interesting to see just how quickly it gets in and out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Both Gloria and Bob became sunny at the end, thats pretty typical for hurricanes here....they also seem to like hitting in the midday hour, Belle I believe was the only one to strike at night. You think long island as of now still has a chance of seeing sustained hurricane/strong tropical storm winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 You think long island as of now still has a chance of seeing sustained hurricane/strong tropical storm winds? Everyone still has a chance including NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 79 sst sandy hook plenty of warm water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yeah-the presentation will likely resemble much more a noreaster up here than a tropical system. My real concern isn't the wind-it's the major surge. If this does happen to strike close to high tide, look out. Also, it's not booking at 40 mph the way many hurricanes do up here-lot of time to funnel water in. to be honest.. wind is still actually up there as one of my main concerns.. just solely due to the fact of how much rain we've gotten and how saturated the ground is..probably easier to uproot a tree. I have to think that even with strong tropical storm force winds for an extended period of time, there has got to be considerable damage to be had solely due to wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The GFS ends up slightly east of the NAM, and not as heavy with the QPF... Irene's faster forward speed on the GFS is probably the reason the qpf is lower on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 to be honest.. wind is still actually up there as one of my main concerns.. just solely due to the fact of how much rain we've gotten and how saturated the ground is..probably easier to uproot a tree. I have to think that even with strong tropical storm force winds for an extended period of time, there has got to be considerable damage to be had solely due to wind As the guy at my garden/nursery put it after tons of trees fell in the March 2010 storm: 'It was like pulling trees out of jell-o.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The last frame of WV loop is finaly showing some incouraging signs, you can see a flare up coming on the SW corner of the storm, we shall see where it goes from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 You think long island as of now still has a chance of seeing sustained hurricane/strong tropical storm winds? I think this would depend on where on Long Island you are. But for most of the island, I think there will be a period of hurricane/strong tropical storm winds Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 12z Ukie hugs the coast. Looks like it will go over NYC. http://weather.uwyo....EC=none&F1=p06i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 12z RGEM has a 972 low over NYC. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Wish i was there guys to see it. Should be insane...my flight home is actually sunday night so looks like im not going anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think this would depend on where on Long Island you are. But for most of the island, I think there will be a period of hurricane/strong tropical storm winds Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. WX/PT I'm in western suffolk county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The visible looks better, you can see a cloud filled eye again now and more coverage on the western side of the TC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is the best Irene has "looked" from a purely aesthetic structural standpoint in many hours. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is a minute to minute change that's going on with that eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Irene is starting to look better. http://www.ssd.noaa....2/flash-rb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 to be honest.. wind is still actually up there as one of my main concerns.. just solely due to the fact of how much rain we've gotten and how saturated the ground is..probably easier to uproot a tree. I have to think that even with strong tropical storm force winds for an extended period of time, there has got to be considerable damage to be had solely due to wind Agree with you. As a Noresater will and does cause damage during the winter months. The trees are now full of leaves and the ground is going to have trouble holding the shallow rooted trees. Also to keep in mind, the inland rivers such as the Delaware, will rise quickly causing issues away from the storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is a good sign even though the cloud tops have warmed some, the convection is filling in much better on the western side, it makes me believe that whatever was impacting her on the western side shear/dry air or both have weakened and therefore Irene should at least be able to slowly improve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 110 MPH at 2pm I think easily based on the recon and the major improvements in its structure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 12z GFS appears to make landfall right around Bay Shore, LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.