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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II


earthlight

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lots of garbage showing up the last few pages...Keep it scientific please.

Say Irene stays a little bit "weaker", would the ATL ridge have a bit more influence on her by pushing her west? and is this why the Models have shifted west a litle bit the last few runs?

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anyone? i haven't seen this discussed yet, perhaps because it's not an issue?

I have been on the weak water spout and/or tornado train for a few days if we stay on the right to right front side of this, especially in some of the intial feeder bands. Anytime you have a land falling tropical system its a concern.

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Check out the marine foecast for the LI sound west of Port Jefferson:

Sun...Hurricane conditions possible. SE winds 50 to 70 kt. Gusts up to 70 kt...increasing to 90 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 13 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Check out for inshore ocean water. Wow:

Sun...Hurricane conditions possible. SE winds 45 to 60 kt. Gusts up to 70 kt...increasing to 80 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 24 ft...building to 28 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Biggest story may be the beaches. NJ and LI are both just going to get creamed, regardless of whether she is 50 or 90 knots passing our latitude.

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Irene is over the highest potential energy waters that she's going to see for the duration of her life right now. She needs to take advantage of that if she wants to increase her intensity or else she might lose her opportunity.

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Biggest story may be the beaches. NJ and LI are both just going to get creamed, regardless of whether she is 50 or 90 knots passing our latitude.

Absolutely. Whether winds are 70 mph, 90 mph or whatever isn't the real point. The surge/wave damage up this way is going to be huge. The size of this storm will result in a huge pile of water making it up here. And that water doesn't go down quickly with a 5 or 10 mph wind drop. Ike was a Cat 2 and devastated areas near Galveston/Houston, in a less surge prone area than us.

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Winds down to 105...why is it weakening...I thought over gulf stream

A quick look at hurricanes that made NC landfall at Category 2 or above in August or September reveals that storms tracking generally due north or somewhat east of north have not strengthened as they reached/passed NC. Gloria (1985) was an exception. However during its northward trajectory, it only gained strength by 5 knots. Hence, the historical data suggests little strengthening is likely for Irene. It probably won't return to major hurricane strength if the historic data is right. Recent trends, the NHC forecast and modeling also argue against significant strengthening. Hence, I believe NC landfall with maximum sustained winds in the vicinity of 100 mph to 110 mph is probably the most likely scenario.

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I'm not too concerned what the ultimate max intensity of the system ends up being at this point. I think given the fact that the hurricane is so large, it will probably still be formidable in our area and I can see the wind field expanding outward even.. it'll also be a fairly prolonged period of high winds. Glancing at the new GFS coming out.. what's interesting is a jet streak to our north.. we are in a favorable right entrance. I think we can really see some good rains breaking out tomorrow.. quicker than we might be thinking right now... and it's a prolonged jet streak as well.. might be why the QPF on the GFS really expands north rather quickly.

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The storm currently looks atrocious on water vapor satellite imagery...we will see if it begins to get more organized later today as some models indicate.

I'm curious to see how the jet entrance streak interaction affects her when she crosses 35N.

Also, way too much banter here in the live thread. Keep this thread clear for people wanting to see obs, model runs, etc.

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I'm not too concerned what the ultimate max intensity of the system ends up being at this point. I think given the fact that the hurricane is so large, it will probably still be formidable in our area and I can see the wind field expanding outward even.. it'll also be a fairly prolonged period of high winds. Glancing at the new GFS coming out.. what's interesting is a jet streak to our north.. we are in a favorable right entrance. I think we can really see some good rains breaking out tomorrow.. quicker than we might be thinking right now... and it's a prolonged jet streak as well.. might be why the QPF on the GFS really expands north rather quickly.

Jay, you are just fantastic. That jet streak has been showing up for a while and its a huge player. Also, the initial bands are really going to saturate already saturated ground meaning the winds will have very little resistence to pushing over trees all across the area.

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The pressure is up to 949mb, on the lastest VDM. I think Irene has probably peaked. The winds might come back a little. But probably no more than low end Cat 3. These major canes need alot of support to keep them going for days. Once they start loosing some favorable conditions, they come down fast.

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I'm curious to see how the jet entrance streak interaction affects her when she crosses 35N.

Also, way too much banter here in the live thread. Keep this thread clear for people wanting to see obs, model runs, etc.

It would likely result in some nastier conditions way more outside the center but I don't think the core or eyewall itself would undergo any strengthening at that latitude. The only storm I have ever seen actually strengthen that far north was Juan off the Nova Scotia coast.

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ALL models show the dry air on the SE side of the storm after NC. It is associated with the purple line which is sort of a barrier between the tropics and the mid latitude. The storm accelorates and becomes more subtropical after it c rosses that line.

post-673-0-34240100-1314374043.gif

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The storm currently looks atrocious on water vapor satellite imagery...we will see if it begins to get more organized later today as some models indicate.

Very true, and I wouldn't be surprised if its because Irene is currently in one of those small, but cold, cold water eddies just off the east of gulf stream.

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12z GFS about as close to the NAM as you can get. Landfall around the same part of LI but to the east of NYC. Not sure that matter too much as a lot of water piles up but may save the last high tide. Ridiculous amounts of rain and of course the south shore of LI gets pounded.

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Irene is taking an absolute beating on the SW side, she keeps taking two steps back for each step forward, overall, the outflow on the SW side looks to be improving, but you can still see the core taking a big hit on water vapor.

This is much more an Ike-like storm without much of a central core, but expansive wind field. This might actually cause it to weaken slower further up the coast. If it had a massive stacked core at this point, it would collapse fast.

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Check out 250 mb during about hour 48 of the GFS. There is so much upper divergence taking place, it is rediculous. If you look at the windield around southern new england and the mid atlantic, you've got strong vector and speed shear all over the place.. almost reminds me of a winter type situation in a deformation zone.. so much moisture to work with and so much dynamics on top of it, it really is an amazing situation

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